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The world of automation

The world of automation

Old Sep 20th 2017, 12:12 am
  #901  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by uk_grenada
You know ai contact centre agents already exist, they are doing the simple parts now - the concierge or switchboard operators. Actually you can play games... Early after install they are still learning,

How to make it possible to call the IT helpdesk your own way.

'How can i help you'
'I want to talk to the idiots'
'I have no number for the idiots, do you know anyone in that area by name or extension no'
'Yes extn 1234'
'Putting you through...'

'How can i help you?'
'Put me through to the idiots'
'Yes sir, calling...'
Welcome back. Interestingly I switched banks recently as I do every 5 years to keep things from stagnating.

Bankwest is my new fav and their call centre is in Australia. It works a treat.

There's a big trend to bring call centres back locally for certain types of businesses. Its all about the upsell. Businesses realise that having the human to human touch point increases the ability to upsell and that requires local accents with local market knowledge to enable that to happen.

Saving money is finite. Making money is infinite.
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Old Sep 20th 2017, 12:14 am
  #902  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz
Ok lets try again. Write-once and distribute. Where would Zuckerberg and Facebook be if he wrote once and distributed? No where. Dead. MySpace.

That's why saving money is finite. You die.

Making money is infinite and it costs.
Once again, this is gibberish. Facebook DID write once and distribute everywhere. That's the point.

And they have lots of employees now not because they need them to keep ticking over, but because employing people to research new patents on new areas can both deliver new business in future (when people get bored of facebook), and can reduce the money wasted in paying tax. They didn't pay $2.3bn for Oculus for the hell of it, they did it because they wanted the IP to expand into new markets - also based on scale.
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Old Sep 20th 2017, 2:55 am
  #903  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP
Once again, this is gibberish. Facebook DID write once and distribute everywhere. That's the point.

And they have lots of employees now not because they need them to keep ticking over, but because employing people to research new patents on new areas can both deliver new business in future (when people get bored of facebook), and can reduce the money wasted in paying tax. They didn't pay $2.3bn for Oculus for the hell of it, they did it because they wanted the IP to expand into new markets - also based on scale.
Give me a break.

No development since 2004? Write-once in 2004 and let the marketeers and M&A crowd grow the business.

Who you trying to fool?

Or is this a back pedal from a poorly thought out statement from earlier?
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Old Sep 20th 2017, 3:22 am
  #904  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz
No development since 2004? Write-once in 2004 and let the marketeers and M&A crowd grow the business.
I think you are getting way the wrong end of the stick here. Nobody has said, or is saying, that you stop development in 2004. What is being said is that you develop one facebook, one codebase, that you roll out to billions of people. Not tweaking it for one group at a time, or needing one administrator per 100 users. It scales easily from 1000 to 1,000,000,000.

And AI solutions are the same. Create one codebase that can do the generic call centre role, running on cloud servers, and you can scale from small to the entire job sector in an easy step - meaning that lots of people can be sacked in a short timeframe. Thus if you are unprepared, you have millions extra on the unemployment line.
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Old Sep 20th 2017, 9:35 am
  #905  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by stevenglish1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqwL7GnxiI0

Someone on here invented this, I'm sure of it
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Old Sep 20th 2017, 9:37 am
  #906  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP
I think you are getting way the wrong end of the stick here. Nobody has said, or is saying, that you stop development in 2004. What is being said is that you develop one facebook, one codebase, that you roll out to billions of people. Not tweaking it for one group at a time, or needing one administrator per 100 users. It scales easily from 1000 to 1,000,000,000.

And AI solutions are the same. Create one codebase that can do the generic call centre role, running on cloud servers, and you can scale from small to the entire job sector in an easy step - meaning that lots of people can be sacked in a short timeframe. Thus if you are unprepared, you have millions extra on the unemployment line.
You did. You said write-once.

Anyhow. Its cool if you want to change your mind.

Not sure what it has to do with the question about technology requiring funding which is kind of impossible if people have no money but anyhow. Lets call it a no answer.

I have a 3rd question for you.

How come the world survived when agriculture, the great employer, was decimated?

https://ourworldindata.org/employment-in-agriculture
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Old Sep 20th 2017, 10:36 am
  #907  
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Arrow Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz

How come the world survived when agriculture, the great employer, was decimated?
We all know machines and tools got people off the fields, and into the factories. Then electronics and communications got many people out of the factories, and into the offices. Now, we are on the cusp of technology being smart enough to do a vast majority of the remaining factory jobs, a majority of the office jobs, and other jobs that humans will never be able to do. There will remain some employment in the creative sectors, hands-on sectors and high administration.

The world will survive. However it's how to deal with the disruption. It's how to deal with a future world which may have 50% unemployment instead of 10%. One way would be to embrace the technological change, but look at ways to support the displaced individuals and industries (and that involves some socialism) the other way is to look inward, look backward, impose regulations to block or limit technological advances, block cheaper foreign trade, prop-up employment heavy industries, and just generally try to retain a mid 20th century economy and society (a Trump future).
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Old Sep 20th 2017, 10:52 am
  #908  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP
...

Excellent response and good articles.

Here's a paste from the HBR article for Beoz in case all that sand is obscuring the page...

Finally, there is often faith in some quarters that the lost jobs will come back. It’s true that previous waves of automation didn’t decrease employment over the long run. Economists once had a term, the “Luddite fallacy,” for those who believed that advancing technology eliminated human jobs. But now many economists, including Larry Summers, are concerned that the previous pattern won’t be repeated in this round of automation.

Add to "many economists", most top technologists, many scientists and many Western governments.
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Old Sep 20th 2017, 11:00 am
  #909  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard
We all know machines and tools got people off the fields, and into the factories. Then electronics and communications got many people out of the factories, and into the offices. Now, we are on the cusp of technology being smart enough to do a vast majority of the remaining factory jobs, a majority of the office jobs, and other jobs that humans will never be able to do. There will remain some employment in the creative sectors, hands-on sectors and high administration.
Wrong way of looking at it.

Focus on a single industry and look what happen to the people.

Farming produces food. The food grows in the field, food is harvested, transported to a factory, cleaned, cut, packaged, distributed again to supermarkets.

What technology gave farming (food acquisition and distribution) was two fold.

1. It allowed food to be commercialised which allowed other sectors to flourish and become the "great employers". Supermarkets, transportation, marketing, TV commercials, Bananas in Pyjarmas, Gordon Ramsey cook books.

2. It allowed food to be produced and consumed in far greater volumes.

All of the above equals $$$$$ and in turn equals jobs.

Automation is rarely used to cut jobs. It is nearly always used to increase production.

Just like in farming automation was never about saving money, it was all about making money.

Unless the above changes, the future is rosey for us all.

Last edited by Beoz; Sep 20th 2017 at 11:04 am.
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Old Sep 20th 2017, 11:03 am
  #910  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard
Excellent response and good articles.

Here's a paste from the HBR article for Beoz in case all that sand is obscuring the page...

Finally, there is often faith in some quarters that the lost jobs will come back. It’s true that previous waves of automation didn’t decrease employment over the long run. Economists once had a term, the “Luddite fallacy,” for those who believed that advancing technology eliminated human jobs. But now many economists, including Larry Summers, are concerned that the previous pattern won’t be repeated in this round of automation.

Add to "many economists", most top technologists, many scientists and many Western governments.
..... and ..... what happen to the punch line in the cut and paste?
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Old Sep 20th 2017, 11:16 am
  #911  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz
Wrong way of looking at it.

Focus on a single industry and look what happen to the people.

Farming produces food. The food grows in the field, food is harvested, transported to a factory, cleaned, cut, packaged, distributed again to supermarkets.

What technology gave farming (food acquisition and distribution) was two fold.

1. It allowed food to be commercialised which allowed other sectors to flourish and become the "great employers". Supermarkets, transportation, marketing, TV commercials, Bananas in Pyjarmas, Gordon Ramsey cook books.

2. It allowed food to be produced and consumed in far greater volumes.

All of the above equals $$$$$ and in turn equals jobs.

Automation is rarely used to cut jobs. It is nearly always used to increase production.

Just like in farming automation was never about saving money, it was all about making money.

Unless the above changes, the future is rosey for us all.

I get all that. We have a huge highly developed economy, and technology led to that. Tech will still open up new fields and new industries that we haven't imagined. The difference this time, is that humans may not be required in the process. At least, not as many humans. Automation and intelligent tools will render many individuals reduntant.
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Old Sep 20th 2017, 11:22 am
  #912  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard
I get all that. We have a huge highly developed economy, and technology led to that. Tech will still open up new fields and new industries that we haven't imagined. The difference this time, is that humans may not be required in the process. At least, not as many humans. Automation and intelligent tools will render many individuals reduntant.
The only way humans won't be needed in the process is if the machines develop their own trading economy.

The machine finance themselves and take human economics out of the picture.

Remember. Human driven automation and technology advancement is only driven by the ability to make money.
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Old Sep 20th 2017, 12:10 pm
  #913  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz
The only way humans won't be needed in the process is if the machines develop their own trading economy.

The machine finance themselves and take human economics out of the picture.

Remember. Human driven automation and technology advancement is only driven by the ability to make money.
Not sure what you're saying here. But certainly the value that machines generate will need to be distributed widely amongst humans. Bill Gates said tax the robots. He's right.
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Old Sep 20th 2017, 12:54 pm
  #914  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard
Not sure what you're saying here. But certainly the value that machines generate will need to be distributed widely amongst humans. Bill Gates said tax the robots. He's right.

Why? The robots increase productivity and profit therefore the increased tax take is a by-product.
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Old Sep 20th 2017, 1:16 pm
  #915  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz
Why? The robots increase productivity and profit therefore the increased tax take is a by-product.
Because, the productivity increase means less workers, and as you often say, if those ex-workers don't have money, they are not going to be buying any product. It's in the economy's interest that the massive productivity gain is distributed.

It doesn't have to be an actual robot tax, it could be done anywhere within the corporate tax code, the point is that in a new economy corporations are going to have to distribute more of the wealth they create.
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