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The world of automation

The world of automation

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Old Aug 29th 2017, 9:28 pm
  #766  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by uk_grenada
Not really, remember atm is automatic teller, but we still have to occasionally visit a bank to prove we exist or do something unusual. The machines are looking towards replacing real tellers for that stuff.

One thing was priviledged phone transactions, an app for your device only installable after you are id'd at the bank and keyed to your individual device.
Something unusual will be human interaction. The last unusual transaction I had was moving $25,000 from one bank to another. After braving the up sell (and it was quite nice as I was able to ask lots of curly questions about different financial things which needed a human to understand about family obligations, female spousal emotions) I got my cash (and it was cash as they could not do an electronic tranfer from my type of account) and wandered to another bank for another up sell then finally a deposit.

Before I could deposit they had to security check me to check for money laundering given the amount. In the end my relationship manager (human) needed to come into the branch and verify personally that I had been acting on a number of recent large transactions for a particular business purpose. She was aware of the business details.

Yep AI will win that one. Ho ho ho.
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Old Aug 29th 2017, 9:33 pm
  #767  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by verystormy
I will put my tupeth in for what it is worth.


I don't think AI and robotic innovation is going to be anywhere near as big as some think and the reason is simple. Cost.


As some of you know, I work in mining and resources. A few years ago, the industry was all a rage about how mines were about to become automated. We had Rio Tinto introduce driverless trucks and everyone assumed all the other big miners would follow suit and the job of driving haul trucks was dead. But, now some years later, it seems it isn't. Why?


Well, all the miners watched with a lot of interest, but what they saw was not what anyone was expecting. You see, the point of driverless trucks was that they didn't need all those truck drivers and could save a huge amount of cash. But, what they have found is that they have actually needed to employ more people than ever and the trucks cost 3x more to service. So, the reason it hasn't spread through the industry is simple economics.
I worked on the Rio automated train project, which is still going on 6 years later, the economics of it is hard to see because they need to have a driver stationed every 30 minutes along the track in case of emergencies. As you say, it's a waste of money, and everyone seems to know it except those at the top.
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Old Aug 29th 2017, 9:54 pm
  #768  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by verystormy
I will put my tupeth in for what it is worth.


I don't think AI and robotic innovation is going to be anywhere near as big as some think and the reason is simple. Cost.


As some of you know, I work in mining and resources. A few years ago, the industry was all a rage about how mines were about to become automated. We had Rio Tinto introduce driverless trucks and everyone assumed all the other big miners would follow suit and the job of driving haul trucks was dead. But, now some years later, it seems it isn't. Why?


Well, all the miners watched with a lot of interest, but what they saw was not what anyone was expecting. You see, the point of driverless trucks was that they didn't need all those truck drivers and could save a huge amount of cash. But, what they have found is that they have actually needed to employ more people than ever and the trucks cost 3x more to service. So, the reason it hasn't spread through the industry is simple economics.
Just curious, what did they need to employ more people for?
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Old Aug 29th 2017, 10:17 pm
  #769  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz
Just curious, what did they need to employ more people for?
Cos it was an ill thought out balls up, you could change your mantra to 'automation creates jobs if it's messed up by overpaid idiots'
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Old Aug 30th 2017, 1:28 am
  #770  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by stevenglish1
Cos it was an ill thought out balls up, you could change your mantra to 'automation creates jobs if it's messed up by overpaid idiots'
The luddites think that automation is there to save money. But that's really a finite saving. What CEO's want is for automation to make money which is infinite.

I have no idea what a truck load of dirt makes a mining company but I would guess its worth a lot. If automation helps you extract and transport more then that's $$$$$, and the $150,000 per driver per year is insignificant.
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Old Aug 30th 2017, 3:07 am
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Default Re: The world of automation

Most are not luddites in the slightest, they just want to feed their families and pay the rent, same as most people. Hardly worthy of disdain. Why would anyone not be against something that posed a threat to their way of life?
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Old Aug 30th 2017, 3:15 am
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by stevenglish1
Most are not luddites in the slightest, they just want to feed their families and pay the rent, same as most people. Hardly worthy of disdain. Why would anyone not be against something that posed a threat to their way of life?
Very few occupations never evolve which is why the Luddite FFallacy continues to be proven wrong, time and time again.
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Old Aug 30th 2017, 4:05 am
  #773  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz
Very few occupations never evolve which is why the Luddite FFallacy continues to be proven wrong, time and time again.
I don't think anyone has said otherwise, of course occupations evolve. Evolving beyond the need for mid to low intellect people though is a very worrying prospect for mid to low intellect people. You can bleat about retraining all you want, but don't make out it's an option open to everyone.
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Old Aug 30th 2017, 4:35 am
  #774  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by stevenglish1
You can bleat about retraining all you want, but don't make out it's an option open to everyone.
It's also kind of key to recognise the difference between 'train' and 'educate'.

Real education gets you to a stage where you can think and do new things in a subject area. It shouldn't be about facts and parroting, it should get you to the stage where you are creative. This is good, and is probably going to survive.

Training on the other hand is basically telling you the sequence of operations to do something. It's turning the person into a machine, carrying out instructions. And that is the main target area for automation - since if you can break it down to make it trainable, you can teach an computer instead.

So retraining isn't part of the solution, it just highlights the shape of the problem.
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Old Aug 30th 2017, 4:57 am
  #775  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by stevenglish1
I don't think anyone has said otherwise, of course occupations evolve. Evolving beyond the need for mid to low intellect people though is a very worrying prospect for mid to low intellect people. You can bleat about retraining all you want, but don't make out it's an option open to everyone.
Low intellect people have evolved for years. Low intellect people use mobile phones right? They can navigate themselves around a PC right? They can drive cars right? A century ago the thought of low intellect people operating such advance machinery was unheard of. They may be able to fix and fly drones one day. See. Evolution baby.
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Old Aug 30th 2017, 5:26 am
  #776  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz
Low intellect people have evolved for years. Low intellect people use mobile phones right? They can navigate themselves around a PC right? They can drive cars right? A century ago the thought of low intellect people operating such advance machinery was unheard of. They may be able to fix and fly drones one day. See. Evolution baby.
Your optimism seems based on the Marie Antoinette principle. They can use phones - call centres are being automated, they can drive cars, cars are going driverless, and like me they can probably surf the net, maybe do a spreadsheet, look at porn, but couldn't program one if their life depended on it. There are sections of society that are being rendered serplus to requirements whether you can see it or not.
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Old Aug 30th 2017, 9:01 am
  #777  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by stevenglish1
Your optimism seems based on the Marie Antoinette principle. They can use phones - call centres are being automated, they can drive cars, cars are going driverless, and like me they can probably surf the net, maybe do a spreadsheet, look at porn, but couldn't program one if their life depended on it. There are sections of society that are being rendered serplus to requirements whether you can see it or not.
Unfortunately, this is the case. Work will become even more polarised between the very high/creative skill and very low/manual skill with smart machines doing the bulk of white collar work.
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Old Aug 30th 2017, 9:12 am
  #778  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by stevenglish1
Your optimism seems based on the Marie Antoinette principle. They can use phones - call centres are being automated, they can drive cars, cars are going driverless, and like me they can probably surf the net, maybe do a spreadsheet, look at porn, but couldn't program one if their life depended on it. There are sections of society that are being rendered serplus to requirements whether you can see it or not.
Back in the day low intellect people farmed, sewed, and hammered horse shoes (though I am pretty sure there was rather an art to that). All those jobs are more or less gone. Low intellect people survived, in fact, they became wealthier and the gap between rich and poor got slimmer. Today they do different jobs. Tomorrow will be different again.

If your crystal ball is broken fear not. Back in the day during the Luddite revolution the crystal ball was broken too.
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Old Sep 5th 2017, 1:17 pm
  #779  
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Default Re: The world of automation

I reckon that the viability of driverless cars is directly linked to the development of electric vehicles (or at the very least, super-advanced plug-in hybrids)

Currently EVs are realistically only viable for city driving and limited commuting given that the practical, best range is roughly 300 kms. Now, this will improve with efficiency, technology and better battery capability, but it is going to be a while yet till EVs get close to range parity and performance with advanced petrol, diesel and hybrid cars

2030 will see widespread EV deployment - until then business as usual
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Old Sep 7th 2017, 12:03 am
  #780  
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Default Re: The world of automation

What does it take to get the US congress to act in a bipartisan manner?

Well, approving a law to stop states banning or interfering with self-drive vehicles :

U.S. House unanimously approves sweeping self-driving car measure | Reuters

So that's one of the things people said would act to stop autonomous vehicles from taking off taken around the back of the bikesheds and shot. Of course, being it was created by politicians, it needs a lot of improvement and fixing up stupidities - but it does look like they are at least moving in the right direction.
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