Amazulu

Even you should have realised by now that just because 'Elon' says something, it doesn't necessarily make it so

Remember, this is the asshole who called a perfectly respectable bloke a paedophile - twice

Shard

Tell that to Sears.

With this significant e-comnerce roll out in the Eastern US they should have quite an impact on Main Street USA, well beyond Queens NY.

Jobs are created, but also destroyed. If everyone can train up and work in the e-commerce supply chain, that would be fine. That's how it's been done since the industrial revolution. Not everyone can, and once the machines get a little smarter and vehicles more autonomous, technological unemployment sets in.

This can't be stopped (and shouldn't be) but it's short sighted to stay in denial. New economic order coming .

Beoz

Some high street retailers are booming. See JB HiFI. Others are floundering and can't adapt. The ones that can adapt will employ those who can't work in e-commerce related fields. However the likes of Amazon still need people who aren't clever enough to unravel the smarts around e-commerce.

Beoz

It's always fun to go back and read about the crystal balls in a thread like this.

Couple of notable takeaways.

1. No drone delivery yet.
2. Bill Gates has just taken top spot on the world's richest person stakes. Microsoft share price continues to rocket.
3. I have still yet to buy anything from Amazon AU.
4. Both Amazon and Google continue to employ in double digit percentage growth year on year.

Shard

Yes, it's a good thread. Driverless cars about to trial in South London. I recall someone on the thread specifically ruling out a 'complicated city environment like London' as impossible.

GarryP

Actually a number of test services have started up, including Google. Not general yet, but plenty of time on the predictions.

Mobile phone, tablet, AR side died a death. They are sustained on the windows bicycle and associated cloud services.

Buying from the US via the AU site is a thing. Local service level still woeful.

Amazon are moving to automated fulfilment centres and machine learning is doing some pretty spectacular things for Google.

Wol

Absolutely! There's an enormous amount of hubris surrounding the driverless car industry.

There is a huge difference between a car that can drive itself ANYWHERE - across fields if necessary, or on temporary lanes against the normal flow after an accident, for example - and one that can't for 1% of the time. The latter is amazing but absolutely useless for the intended tasks that the industry projects as being here in a few years' time.

Tesla is up there with the frontrunners in the game - but log into the Tesla Motor Users' forum and see the number of times the owners have to override the autopilot - it's NOWHERE near autonomous driving in the cat 5 sense.

Wol

Probably me, some time ago!

I would doubt that driverless cars are "about to trial" in London - or anywhere else for that matter.

If you mean "autonomous cars with a driver who is the responsible agent" then, yes.

See my post above - there's a vast difference.

scrubbedexpat091

At this point I think automating Amazon as much as possible is the best way forward, they are always hiring here where I am in Canada, like non-stop and they seem to be running out of willing workers, doesn't help they have such realistic demands to meet which likely helps increase the turn over. For $15-$16 CAD$ per hour there are much easier jobs one can get with far better work environment.

Never met anyone yet who said they liked working at Amazon fulfillment. I gave it a try a few years back, but i wasn't fast enough.

GarryP

Google have just announced they are getting rid of the 'safety driver' for their taxi service in Phoenix ....

https://www.gearbrain.com/waymo-driv...641148456.html

Obviously they have been operating autonomous vehicles as taxis for a while, but they are confident enough to ditch the ride along engineer from these - and google are one of the most cautious companies.

GarryP

Which is part of the point. Don't want to pay even more to get the fleshy robots through the door.

Wol

GarryP >> Obviously they have been operating autonomous vehicles as taxis for a while, but they are confident enough to ditch the ride along engineer from these - and google are one of the most cautious companies. <<

Following your link, in part it says:

" By L4, the company is referring to Level Four automation, which is where a car is capable of driving itself on public roads and in almost any circumstances. Level Five is the only higher level, which remains theoretical for now and is where the vehicle can drive absolutely anywhere, in any weather conditions, with zero human interaction. "

That's what I mean by the huge difference between 4 and 5. It doesn't sound much, but in commercial terms it is. A taxi that stops and tells you to get out in the middle of nowhere because it is out of its comfort zone isn't useful.

We'll have to wait and see, but despite being in the market for an EV with FSD - the one I had ordered in July arrived in Sydney in September but I had to cancel for personal reasons - I am sceptical.

Shard

If an L4 is able to navigate a complex urban environment, then it's only a matter of time (5-10 years) until an L5 can do the same. It's happening.

https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...an-environment

Amazulu

2030 - possibly/probably
2025 - only in a nerd wet dream maybe

Wol

Not that much point in arguing the issue. I have no more knowledge than most of us on this except I've been following it for several decades - in fact I was a "subject" in TRRL, Bracknell, studies in the sixties: during the tea breaks the scientists were confidently predicting self drive cars by 1980 at the latest.
I've no doubt that viable no-driver cars are currently possible on dedicated roads but I just cannot see them being commercially possible in everyday situations, where they have to be merged with normal traffic. Upgrading from four to five isn't merely a matter of adding code - it's a paradigm shift to true artificial intelligence, which is still a long way away.
And real AI will open a whole new can of worms, anyway.
When I take delivery of my FSD (I should put that in quotes) I will let everyone know!