Amazulu

In soy boy land maybe

Shard

I guess Larry & Sergei didn't get the memo from Wozniak...

https://www.independent.co.uk/life-s...rom%20%251%24s

GarryP

So we have multiple companies already driving on the streets, and Ford with a stated target of joining them big time by 2021, and you can't put two and two together with a delivery service test that uses a human as a robot ?

Frankly the only way you'd be looking at 2030 now is if all the governments in the world all decided to ban them, everywhere.

By 2030 we are going to be talking human driven cars beginning to be banned from key roads. And hopefully the cyclists too

GarryP

https://www.news.com.au/world/breaki...df27ea2b5428c8


Well it *might* take them that long .....

Shard

Awesome. Though I wouldn't like to be the test pilot on that manned rotor machine!

Amazulu

Nonsense

NZ is the most drone-unfriendly place in the world

Good luck to these people getting this done any time soon

GarryP

Well, it's got TWO ways to stay up - so twice as safe !

And if they make them cheap, I want one

Beoz

Hell yes. The red tape is going to kill it more than technology.

2030

GarryP

Hasn't so far, and the bit you missed is that all of them would have to ban them for it to make a difference. Assuming that's vanishingly unlikely, autonomous vehicles would get rolled out, and then everyone would be playing catchup, given the ways in which they can then remake societal structures.

To me the timeline looks something like:

2020 Initial rollout (someone will want to jump the gun)
2021 Most players will rollout, with a landrush approach to building out robotaxis.
2022 Australia gets rollout, late again.
2023 If you are buying a new car, you get one with an autonomous option.
2024 Armageddon for professional drivers is underway, Robotaxis are THE thing. Long distance transport is automated.
2025 New businesses are starting up, based on the autonomous vehicle as a key part
2026 People start talking about how dangerous manual cars are.
2027 Parking starts disappearing in the CBD
2028 Owning a car falls away, like the CD
2029 Insurance rates starts to make owning and driving your own car prohibitively expensive.
2030 First CBD bans non-autonomous vehicles.

ozzieeagle

Say we go along with that timeframe, I accept if for the far east BTW. So let's go along with it for argument's sake.

What does that do to society as a whole? Personally, I think it's going to massively change the way we look at housing, especially in say areas up to 150 miles away from major cities. It could turn Urban Centers on its head. I also am very sure the reluctance from the average joe to uptake here in the West will give China and India a massive boost in Technology and manufacturing to the point that the West could end up second world in comparison.

It's going to be interesting to see how the Scandinavians and to a lesser extent The Germans and French cope with this.

ozzieeagle

I've just come to the realisation that right now, there should be signs of car ownership dropping per head of population in very Central Urban Areas, are there any figures to back this up. If there are this should be a precurser of things to come. I do know that our local council Moreland is now approving housing without their own car parking spots being a pre requisite.

Beoz

First things first.

A lot to be said about Long Distance Transportation.

If we are talking motorway based, this is a lot easier to implement than urban. Point to point, technology focusses on slowing and speeding and changing lanes, very much like a train. I think it was you that mentioned you might have a terminal/terminus on the outskirts of cities. Initially the automation could start and end there.

We don't seem to hear a lot about freight options in transportation but that certainly seems to make the most sense as a starting point. Maybe freight and transportation companies don't see the value in replacing their fleet with automation - cheaper just to retain drivers.

Beoz

The only thing that would make change is time. Time to get to 150km out. Is that still going to be a 2 hour trip in Melbourne? Or is that going to be 45 mins. Congestion still exists, motorways built (hows that East West link looking?).

GarryP

It makes BIG changes. First, I'm not convinced public transport survives unless it gets totally changed. Who the hell is going muck about going to a station to catch a train or tram? Long distance might still work, but even that is questionable. In particular I think 'mass' is going to get a lot less 'massive'. Better a minibus sized robotaxi than a train - small, frequent, door-to-door.

Houses with double garages are going to find other uses for the space.

Deliveries are going to be automated and same day, or same hour. That goes double for food etc. so supermarkets and thus malls close

CBDs lose parking (which takes at least 30% of space today).

EVs become the norm, particularly on robotaxis - the economics makes sense.

Free lifts to and from the pub, paid for by the pub. Maybe the same for big shops and big purchases.

Caravans and motorhomes take off in the autonomous world - sod the flats and apartments if you can take your house with you. Lots more people in the countryside.

You might even get adhoc companies, formed for the day from skilled types converging on one spot to work on a project, each working in their own home/office on wheels, then scattering again at the end of the day. That does mean nobody paying rates for house, or rates for office space, etc.

And, of course, some far right types will think to take away someone's freedom by effectively banning them from the roads.

Amazulu

Nope, that's centre-left (minimum) thinking - as much government interference and control of peoples lives as possible

The right's about anything goes