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The world of automation

The world of automation

Old Oct 23rd 2018, 1:48 am
  #1501  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard
Once AV tech is available for trucks, it will be implemented without delay, and truckers automated out of existence. Maybe they can start opening up wine bars.
I can't work out if you are being serious or not

Always the "once" and "maybe". It's one thing to have huge trucks running iron ore around on an opencast mine - but what happens when a truck gets stuck or makes an impossible turn to a non-negotiable route or etc etc, and there's no driver for a hundred miles around?

Trains, trams and autoland in aircraft are trivial problems compared with autonomous vehicles on messy, crowded public roads.
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Old Oct 23rd 2018, 1:56 am
  #1502  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Wol
I can't work out if you are being serious or not

Always the "once" and "maybe". It's one thing to have huge trucks running iron ore around on an opencast mine - but what happens when a truck gets stuck or makes an impossible turn to a non-negotiable route or etc etc, and there's no driver for a hundred miles around?

Trains, trams and autoland in aircraft are trivial problems compared with autonomous vehicles on messy, crowded public roads.
Spot on

Supporters of driverless vehicles are ready NOW tend to gloss over the very real obstacles in the way of mass deployment
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Old Oct 23rd 2018, 2:24 am
  #1503  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Wol
what happens when a truck gets stuck or makes an impossible turn to a non-negotiable route or etc etc, and there's no driver for a hundred miles around?
What happens if there is?

Not only is there remote human control, my guess is there will be a roll of 'hassle handler', at least early on, dealing with the situations where the AI can't. That will be across the domains, maybe 10% of the existing staff at present will be kept on in this new role. If they end up sitting on their hands most of the time, they get sacked. And because they just lost their jobs, they will be cheap.
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Old Oct 23rd 2018, 2:31 am
  #1504  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP
What happens if there is?

Not only is there remote human control, my guess is there will be a roll of 'hassle handler', at least early on, dealing with the situations where the AI can't. That will be across the domains, maybe 10% of the existing staff at present will be kept on in this new role. If they end up sitting on their hands most of the time, they get sacked. And because they just lost their jobs, they will be cheap.
You must be delusional if you imagine that "remote handling" would ever be acceptable on public roads, with a traffic jam around a stranded truck and fistfights starting all over! In any case, those who think that these things are just around the corner say that nothing can go wrong go wrong go wrong anyway.
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Old Oct 23rd 2018, 2:39 am
  #1505  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Wol
You must be delusional if you imagine that "remote handling" would ever be acceptable on public roads, with a traffic jam around a stranded truck and fistfights starting all over!
Your goalposts seem to be mobile. First you are talking about nobody "a hundred miles around", and then there's a traffic jam and fistfights.
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Old Oct 23rd 2018, 4:04 am
  #1506  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP
Your goalposts seem to be mobile. First you are talking about nobody "a hundred miles around", and then there's a traffic jam and fistfights.
RTFQ! Scenario - a big truck gets stuck on a small roundabout. No driver. traffic jam builds up - people start getting antsy. Nearest operative who can take over the truck is a hundred miles away. When there's a driver in the cab at present it's awkward but happens all the time that cooperation between him and other drivers gets the traffic moving again.

As I've said many times before getting an aircraft to land automatically is child's play compared with autonomous vehicles on messy public roads - and even then the regulatory systems, the years of testing, the triplicated computers, the ongoing expert maintenance cost billions. Autonomous cars in large numbers, "driven" by the average guy you see on the road now, present a ....different problem.
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Old Oct 23rd 2018, 4:23 am
  #1507  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle
Labour shortage here now

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-...onomy/10050678

Hopefully, this Suburban rail loop in the planning stage will be driverless, that way there will be more trains and worth travelling outwards from the city for.

Lots of infrastructure being built in Victoria at present and more to come.
Victoria is always clutching at straws for top spot.

However infrastructure and jobs is booming in Melb and Syd. Labour shortages. Yes there are. Plenty of them. And they want to cut the right type of immigration. Shame on them.
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Old Oct 23rd 2018, 5:11 am
  #1508  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Wol
RTFQ! Scenario - a big truck gets stuck on a small roundabout. No driver. traffic jam builds up - people start getting antsy. Nearest operative who can take over the truck is a hundred miles away. When there's a driver in the cab at present it's awkward but happens all the time that cooperation between him and other drivers gets the traffic moving again.

As I've said many times before getting an aircraft to land automatically is child's play compared with autonomous vehicles on messy public roads - and even then the regulatory systems, the years of testing, the triplicated computers, the ongoing expert maintenance cost billions. Autonomous cars in large numbers, "driven" by the average guy you see on the road now, present a ....different problem.

I can almost see the the queue of ambulance chasing lawyers lining up to take on any case of injury or death caused by a driverless vehicle - a big legal gravy train
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Old Oct 23rd 2018, 7:39 am
  #1509  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Wol
I can't work out if you are being serious or not

Always the "once" and "maybe". It's one thing to have huge trucks running iron ore around on an opencast mine - but what happens when a truck gets stuck or makes an impossible turn to a non-negotiable route or etc etc, and there's no driver for a hundred miles around?

Trains, trams and autoland in aircraft are trivial problems compared with autonomous vehicles on messy, crowded public roads.
Trying to be serious.

There are certainly going to be routes, cargos, scenarios where an AV truck is an inferior choice to a driver truck. Deployment of AV doesn't mean 100% deployment, it could be 80% or 50%, but the point is that there will be a significant share of the truck driving business which can be automated. Driving some goods from the port to a distribution center, for example.
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Old Oct 23rd 2018, 8:29 am
  #1510  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard
Trying to be serious.

There are certainly going to be routes, cargos, scenarios where an AV truck is an inferior choice to a driver truck. Deployment of AV doesn't mean 100% deployment, it could be 80% or 50%, but the point is that there will be a significant share of the truck driving business which can be automated. Driving some goods from the port to a distribution center, for example.
That I can imagine happening sometime soon after 2030 - semi dedicated routes with limited other traffic
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Old Oct 23rd 2018, 9:43 am
  #1511  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard
Trying to be serious.

There are certainly going to be routes, cargos, scenarios where an AV truck is an inferior choice to a driver truck. Deployment of AV doesn't mean 100% deployment, it could be 80% or 50%, but the point is that there will be a significant share of the truck driving business which can be automated. Driving some goods from the port to a distribution center, for example.
I would expect the long distance stuff will be done first. Long, boring route between cities, quite simple, and where truck drivers are supposed to only work a certain number of hours per day (and the automation can run for 24 hours a day, so twice as fast). It would also make it safer, considering the amount of amphetamine taken.

I'd expect it to be well in progress by 2025, and completed within a few years, given the overwhelming economics.
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Old Oct 23rd 2018, 9:47 am
  #1512  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP
I would expect the long distance stuff will be done first. Long, boring route between cities, quite simple, and where truck drivers are supposed to only work a certain number of hours per day (and the automation can run for 24 hours a day, so twice as fast). It would also make it safer, considering the amount of amphetamine taken.

I'd expect it to be well in progress by 2025, and completed within a few years, given the overwhelming economics.
Yes, definitely. Are they running those single driver convoys yet or is that just in testing phase?
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Old Oct 23rd 2018, 11:11 am
  #1513  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP
I would expect the long distance stuff will be done first. Long, boring route between cities, quite simple, and where truck drivers are supposed to only work a certain number of hours per day (and the automation can run for 24 hours a day, so twice as fast). It would also make it safer, considering the amount of amphetamine taken.

I'd expect it to be well in progress by 2025, and completed within a few years, given the overwhelming economics.
Steve Wozinak has given up on the idea for now.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...drive-car.html

I think the roads will have to be strictly controlled, hence why I think China will lead the way with this. They will make it happen by hook or by crook and capture the vast majority of the market, leaving the West reeling in circa 40 to 50 years.
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Old Oct 23rd 2018, 11:20 am
  #1514  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle
Steve Wozinak has given up on the idea for now.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...drive-car.html

I think the roads will have to be strictly controlled, hence why I think China will lead the way with this. They will make it happen by hook or by crook and capture the vast majority of the market, leaving the West reeling in circa 40 to 50 years.

Thanks for posting it, but WOZNIAK or TUSK? 1970s guy or 2018 guy? I know who my money's on.
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Old Oct 23rd 2018, 1:54 pm
  #1515  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard
Thanks for posting it, but WOZNIAK or TUSK? 1970s guy or 2018 guy? I know who my money's on.
Ha .... Good question. ..... Both never made it to the top.
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