The world of automation
Jul 19th 2018, 6:48 am
#1366
Yo
Joined: Nov 2012
Location: UK
Posts: 24,474
Re: The world of automation
I don't know your own background, but I think a lot of people - and industry and politicians - are confusing simulated AI with actual AI. By "simulated" I mean what we see at present - massive programs that present solutions that their writes can't see how they arrive at it. One can go all metaphysical and argue about sentience, self awareness, intelligence et al, but the fact remains that present so-called AI are nothing like intelligent in a way that we understand.
With autonomous fighters, for example, you can only code up to a certain level of sophistication, to deal with thousands of different scenarios. When something occurs beyond that level - say, for example, the thing returns to its base which has been obliterated - it would have to have orders from the base - but communications would be a very vulnerable problem. Much the same with self driving cars, which are arguably orders of magnitude more complex to program but which can at least stop and wait!
One car "stopped, waiting for assistance" is not a problem - but when (if) millions of self driving cars do the same thing......
I'll believe it when I see autonomous cars on the streets without any manual reversion - and I don't mean the little bugs that are being tested in very limited areas, but on all sorts of roads.
With autonomous fighters, for example, you can only code up to a certain level of sophistication, to deal with thousands of different scenarios. When something occurs beyond that level - say, for example, the thing returns to its base which has been obliterated - it would have to have orders from the base - but communications would be a very vulnerable problem. Much the same with self driving cars, which are arguably orders of magnitude more complex to program but which can at least stop and wait!
One car "stopped, waiting for assistance" is not a problem - but when (if) millions of self driving cars do the same thing......
I'll believe it when I see autonomous cars on the streets without any manual reversion - and I don't mean the little bugs that are being tested in very limited areas, but on all sorts of roads.
Jul 19th 2018, 12:39 pm
#1367
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 15,526
Re: The world of automation
Nobody is worrying about "sentience" at this point in time (maybe in another 50+ years) but smart machines are rapidly emerging. Surprised you remain sceptical on autonomous vehicles, they are already being trialled in Arizona and will be widely deployed in the next decade.
So whats happening with the 40 pods in Mkeynes?
Jul 19th 2018, 9:18 pm
#1368
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The world of automation
No one doubts one day the technology will be in place, the red tape removed, the roads re-designed for autonomy, the cost of the vehicle less than current, all the required pieces that make up more than an Elon Musk marketing video.
Despite the hype, it's not there and not going to cause mass unemployment.
Jul 19th 2018, 9:21 pm
#1369
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The world of automation
Jul 19th 2018, 11:49 pm
#1370
snɐןɔ ʎʇıuɐs
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 6,558
Re: The world of automation
2021 has been the expected date for a long time now.
We've been through this before, the target is robotaxis
https://www.investors.com/news/gm-wa...vehicle-costs/
I will agree with one thing though, local councils are going to have to improve their roads rather than thinking they can get away with poor design and markings and then blame accidents on drivers.
When it works (and the implementation dates haven't been slipping out, but rather coming in), it will most definitely cause mass unemployment of drivers.
https://www.investors.com/news/gm-wa...vehicle-costs/
I will agree with one thing though, local councils are going to have to improve their roads rather than thinking they can get away with poor design and markings and then blame accidents on drivers.
When it works (and the implementation dates haven't been slipping out, but rather coming in), it will most definitely cause mass unemployment of drivers.
Jul 20th 2018, 3:27 am
#1371
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 15,526
Re: The world of automation
2021 has been the expected date for a long time now.
We've been through this before, the target is robotaxis
https://www.investors.com/news/gm-wa...vehicle-costs/
I will agree with one thing though, local councils are going to have to improve their roads rather than thinking they can get away with poor design and markings and then blame accidents on drivers.
When it works (and the implementation dates haven't been slipping out, but rather coming in), it will most definitely cause mass unemployment of drivers.
We've been through this before, the target is robotaxis
https://www.investors.com/news/gm-wa...vehicle-costs/
I will agree with one thing though, local councils are going to have to improve their roads rather than thinking they can get away with poor design and markings and then blame accidents on drivers.
When it works (and the implementation dates haven't been slipping out, but rather coming in), it will most definitely cause mass unemployment of drivers.
I personally expect that this will happen a lot faster in Asia than the West and will be a flag fora shift in the real balance of power on all fronts from political through to financial and all points in-between.
The West will cling on to the old technology despite itself and hand the baton of progress and advancement to Asia.
Last edited by ozzieeagle; Jul 20th 2018 at 4:05 am.
Jul 20th 2018, 5:05 am
#1372
snɐןɔ ʎʇıuɐs
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 6,558
Re: The world of automation
I personally expect that this will happen a lot faster in Asia than the West and will be a flag fora shift in the real balance of power on all fronts from political through to financial and all points in-between.
The West will cling on to the old technology despite itself and hand the baton of progress and advancement to Asia.
The West will cling on to the old technology despite itself and hand the baton of progress and advancement to Asia.
If Australia were smart and forward looking, it could do well. However the current government are just not up to anything forward looking.
Which ever part of the world you are looking at though, will only lag by a max of about 5 years. The advantages and wins will be obvious and the laggards will be scrabbling to catch up.
Jul 20th 2018, 8:47 am
#1373
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 9,397
Re: The world of automation
Nobody is worrying about "sentience" at this point in time (maybe in another 50+ years) but smart machines are rapidly emerging. Surprised you remain sceptical on autonomous vehicles, they are already being trialled in Arizona and will be widely deployed in the next decade.
The people who are doing this research are far from stupid, but I think they can get trapped in an alternative universe where real life bends to their cars rather than the other way around. Exactly the same thing has happened in civil aircraft, where although the overall accident rate has gone relentlessly down the percentage of accidents "blamed" on the automatics has gone up as the humans have been incapable of effectively managing them
We'll see.
Jul 20th 2018, 10:41 am
#1374
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The world of automation
2021 has been the expected date for a long time now.
We've been through this before, the target is robotaxis
https://www.investors.com/news/gm-wa...vehicle-costs/
I will agree with one thing though, local councils are going to have to improve their roads rather than thinking they can get away with poor design and markings and then blame accidents on drivers.
When it works (and the implementation dates haven't been slipping out, but rather coming in), it will most definitely cause mass unemployment of drivers.
We've been through this before, the target is robotaxis
https://www.investors.com/news/gm-wa...vehicle-costs/
I will agree with one thing though, local councils are going to have to improve their roads rather than thinking they can get away with poor design and markings and then blame accidents on drivers.
When it works (and the implementation dates haven't been slipping out, but rather coming in), it will most definitely cause mass unemployment of drivers.
Jul 20th 2018, 10:44 am
#1375
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The world of automation
Singapore is leading the charge.
Leaders are paid like CEO's and layers of government are minimal.
Jul 20th 2018, 10:48 am
#1376
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 9,397
Re: The world of automation
>>If Australia were smart and forward looking, it could do well. However the current government are just not up to anything forward looking.<<
Still, they look like a band of Einsteins compared with the shambles that is going on in the UK!
Still, they look like a band of Einsteins compared with the shambles that is going on in the UK!
Jul 20th 2018, 1:40 pm
#1377
snɐןɔ ʎʇıuɐs
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 6,558
Re: The world of automation
You can kind of understand the UK, nobody want's to be in charge of that sh*tshow. There is no way to win. However the US and Australia - well, having monkeys voting, get peanutheads.
The total lack of planning for what they know is coming is what gets me - none of them show any sign of making any preparation. It looks very like they are running it into the ground to leave it by the side of the road.
Jul 20th 2018, 6:23 pm
#1378
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 15,526
Re: The world of automation
In general, they are not electing their best.
You can kind of understand the UK, nobody want's to be in charge of that sh*tshow. There is no way to win. However the US and Australia - well, having monkeys voting, get peanutheads.
The total lack of planning for what they know is coming is what gets me - none of them show any sign of making any preparation. It looks very like they are running it into the ground to leave it by the side of the road.
You can kind of understand the UK, nobody want's to be in charge of that sh*tshow. There is no way to win. However the US and Australia - well, having monkeys voting, get peanutheads.
The total lack of planning for what they know is coming is what gets me - none of them show any sign of making any preparation. It looks very like they are running it into the ground to leave it by the side of the road.
Which is a clue to when faced with the choice of taking up automation of physical things like transportation. Whereas the Asians are used to being told how things will run by their leaders and those in power. Hence I expect this automation revolution is going to come to us from the East..... Tsunami style, once it's mostly completed the east. That includes India as well. They will be well in front and basically, in control of the production and systems behind autonomy, I now believe.
There's a real resistance by a huge core of people to anything Automated and not in their own control in the West.
Last edited by ozzieeagle; Jul 20th 2018 at 6:44 pm.
Jul 20th 2018, 9:02 pm
#1379
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The world of automation
The problem is in the current immigration type we get people who can analyze data, but don't have the communication or business skills to do anything with it.
Unfortunately we cannot train AI for part 2 and we have already trained the tech to do part one and it's still resulting in ever changing inadequacies.
There is a government push for STEM. Is it a big enough push. Not yet.
Jul 20th 2018, 9:10 pm
#1380
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The world of automation
Automation and electronic choices are already available to plenty in the west. When it comes to my industry it's the punter that makes the choice on whether they switch from physical delivery of mail to paper and when it comes to financial delivery where security is key they are being reluctant to the point of obstinance.. Hardly anyone is swapping to electronic statement delivery when it comes to things like EOFY share reports and statements etc. The choice is there, people aren't taking it. Much to my personal chagrin, I must add.
Which is a clue to when faced with the choice of taking up automation of physical things like transportation. Whereas the Asians are used to being told how things will run by their leaders and those in power. Hence I expect this automation revolution is going to come to us from the East..... Tsunami style, once it's mostly completed the east. That includes India as well. They will be well in front and basically, in control of the production and systems behind autonomy, I now believe.
There's a real resistance by a huge core of people to anything Automated and not in their own control in the West.
Which is a clue to when faced with the choice of taking up automation of physical things like transportation. Whereas the Asians are used to being told how things will run by their leaders and those in power. Hence I expect this automation revolution is going to come to us from the East..... Tsunami style, once it's mostly completed the east. That includes India as well. They will be well in front and basically, in control of the production and systems behind autonomy, I now believe.
There's a real resistance by a huge core of people to anything Automated and not in their own control in the West.
However government mandates are trying to lift that. They are still throwing massive amounts of human labour at the effort. When I go to Singapore it staggers me how many bods they throw at the same task. Triple than what they would here.
Thinking about this it really comes down to the learning process. In Asia they like to rope learn. Follow a process. That process is usually inefficient even though they are using technology to do the tasks. What we do here is take that technology and figure out how we can make that process more efficient.
I think that is all in the education. Asians are taught to memorize. We are taught to problem solve. I am sure I will cop some backlash for that, but it's what I see working directly with both.
