GarryP

Which is why I said it was a daft example at the beginning. However I can definitely see ways in which the pub service environment COULD be automated whilst improving the experience (hands up who likes waiting at the bar) and the overall point stands.

Thing is, in a mature industry increased sales for one only come at reduced sales for others, so from a country perspective it's a wash at best. And cost cutting becomes the only way to 'win', because if you don't, someone else will. This goes flying over his head.

All of which misses out on the exam question of mass automation, mass unemployment, and the depression that comes from it. Still can't see a solution.

Shard

There is no employment solution, because as you mused up thread, there won't be sufficient replacement jobs. However, I think 'unstable' level of unemployment is the change that will be required to get society to re-think its wealth distribution model. Either that or we regress to a more feudal society, which somehow I don't think will happen (I'm an optimist).

I agree some automation could be introduced to the pub trade. Weatherspoons now have an app where you can order from your table and the drinks are delivered, which avoids waiting at the bar.

Shard

Well Rio does seem to be giving some hoots about the 'blokes driving the train' and other workers they are attempting to automate out of their system ?? The article contradicts your assertion.

As to job evolution (data scientists replacing miners) I think you're missing the bigger picture. In the short term, while the industry/company is transitioning to automation, there will indeed be an increased need for technological manpower to design, build, implement the systems. That's where we are now. The tech sector has exploded in recent decades because there is so much to be built. However, at some stage it is built, it reaches maturity, and barring Elon's colony on Mars, there will be little else for us humans to do. Well, save for going to the pub and pulling or downing pints.

Shard

I'm noticing a trend here, with all these big corporations. The PR line is almost always that staff will be re-deployed elsewhere in the operation. They know that it is highly brand toxic to say, we're replacing people with machines, so like good Trumpsters, they deny reality. My guess is that the displaced workers are found pseudo-roles for a year or two and then offered redundancy packages or simply shuffled into roles they are unwilling to perform. It would good be a topic for some academic research, the longer term plight of automated-out workers.

Shard

False dichotomy.

Businesses who "don't care about costs" soon find that they ARE in trouble. That's why businesses focus on costs, as well as sales. Profit is a function of both.

HTH.

Beoz

The whole point of productivity has been avoided by you and Garry. Must have hit the right button then.

Sure. No point paying for something that's not needed. Common sense more than anything. But no business is going to cut the cost of cheap people if people are making money. And no business is going to sacrifice cheap people for an expensive machine, especially when those people can be put on and off as business goes up and down.

Incorrect. What do Apple do when everyone has a mobile phone? Go after Samsung? No. Create an iPad and go after a new market. Children.

What did Microsoft do with their phone business? Kicked it into touch and went after cloud services. And look at where they are today (how those shares doing?)

Any company that peddles out the same old crap and doesn't seek to diversify or create a better product or service than its competition is doomed for failure. Business 101.

Mature markets - ho ho ho.

Not such a daft example after all then.

Shard

Nothing to discuss on productivity. If automation raises it, then it will be introduced, if not, it won't.

Why you think firms in a free market are happy to maintain superfluous staff is beyond me. You seem to believe the market is infinite, it isn't. Markets saturate, storage and time frictions exist, skill shortages are real.

GarryP

Basically anything that requires pattern matching and responding to patterns can be done at least as well as humans. eg https://www.bbc.com/news/health-38717928

Obviously reproduction of set processes is already down pat.

Combine them together and there is a hell of a lot of jobs that can be done, probably including all those customer service jobs that Beoz seems to think are going to magically appear. I've a sneaking suspicion that an AI like Google Duplex will be able to digest the salesman patter handbook at least as well as the shiny suit brigade, and I also think it will do better at pattern matching non-verbal clues and voice inflections. Probably will even be able to work out if you've more money than sense and then try and sell you a Mac.

Just think of 2025, when rather than someone phoning you up and reading a script in an Indian accent, you'll get a sultry voice, engaging in conversation, and only gradually working it around to selling the latest retraining course, guaranteed to get you one of the ever disappearing jobs. Spam calls every 5 minutes, all of which can have a good shot at passing the Turing test.

Shard

Gary, you must be the only person more bullish on AI and automation than me. LOL. I'd say 2040 before true AI salesbots, though 2025 sounds about right for virtual assistants becoming widespread.

ozzieeagle

I reckon we are going to be left way way behind in the West. AI and its implementation will only come in as fast as people are prepared to accept it. I dont think Western people are ready to change. By a long shot, Unfortunately. There are still hoards of people using Fax Machines for xsakes. Laminex the group does most of its invoicing still by Fax.





.

Amazulu

Luditte theory still in play

Nothing has changed

We're going to be okay

GarryP

Not really bullish, just seen what they can do firsthand.

Let's go through the necessary elements for a telephone based salesbot.

• Ability to talk in a 'human' voice - check, Google Duplex does that well enough to fool people.
• Ability to replicate the salesman handbook of techniques - check, just a matter of programming
• Ability to pick up on emotion and clues in speech - check, https://www.affectiva.com/emotion-ai-overview/
• Ability to conduct general and task conversation - check https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-27762088
• Patience - check, if anything AIs are the ideal sales, they don't get bored or disheartened.

Like spam email, they will happen because they only need to make sales a small fraction of the time to be viable. If they screw up the conversation, so what, just another lost sale. They are cheaper than an Indian in a call centre, with better English (local accent even), and no rote script. What's worse, they can evolve in how they approach the sale, learning what works for particular types of people and adjusting accordingly, from the mass of data they will gather.

Then imagine what the same tech will do for adverts, personalised and tailored to the individual (they already have the data). You are 40, like red sports cars and live in Perth, well the advert you see can be micro targeted to what you are thinking, with local scenery in the background, and a message/conversation designed to pull you in, talking to you by name. "Shard, isn't it time you followed your dream?" Just think how those types of ad will hit the marketeers.

2025 is generous.

Shard

I think the natural language interface is being a bit over-hyped, although understanding has made great leaps in recent years, NL generation remains in its infancy. The experiments tend to be very domain specific (Duplex booking an appointment) and the interaction has to go according to plan. It's all narrow AI at this stage, and a true sales situation is approaching general AI. Not saying it won't happen, but seven years is way too soon.

Shard

True (on resistance to change) but then as AI simplifies things, people will gravitate towards it. Does anyone use still paper maps when driving?! In the brave new world there will be no need for faxes or invoices, it will just be clicks of a mouse and data trails.

Beoz

Does anyone still do tele sales? Apparently we are going to have tele salesbots. There's a reason tele sales is almost extinct. It doesn't work.

Not used a fax in about 8 years now. Have you?