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The world of automation

The world of automation

Old Nov 19th 2017, 10:45 am
  #1111  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard
A different animal than a McCLaren or Bugatti, I suppose, but in terms of acceleration, pretty incredible. It must be disconcerting to accelerate at that rate, especially if it's noiseless. Maybe Elon with have to install an artificial exhaust replicator to give motorheads the full experience!
The animated GIF on the previous page gives an idea what that kind of launch looks like. Reminds me of the launch of fighters on Battlestar Galactica.

The P90D with Ludicrous has been pissing off muscle car types at drag strips - a family sedan leaving their throaty beasts in the dust. I get the feeling that exhaust roar is going to sound old hat in 5 years - it'll be like vinyl bores in an age of streaming.
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Old Nov 19th 2017, 10:53 am
  #1112  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP
The animated GIF on the previous page gives an idea what that kind of launch looks like. Reminds me of the launch of fighters on Battlestar Galactica.

The P90D with Ludicrous has been pissing off muscle car types at drag strips - a family sedan leaving their throaty beasts in the dust. I get the feeling that exhaust roar is going to sound old hat in 5 years - it'll be like vinyl bores in an age of streaming.
Ah ok. Was first looking at the GIF on my phone, and from the at speed point, so it didn't make much sense. But having re-viewed it from the start it does give a sense of the acceleration.

I don't think the appeal of exhaust roar will fade any time soon. Still plenty of car shows racing vintage vehicles and bikes. But on the whole cars will become an enthusiast domain, and there the parallel to vinyl might be apt.

Here's a good piece on the future of cars. A bit long, but worth a view when time permits.

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Old Nov 19th 2017, 11:18 am
  #1113  
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Default Re: The world of automation

By the way, the usual base models are fast at 0-60 in ~5 sec. Not light speed, but still mixing it with the older Porsche 911s.

The dual motor versions are ridiculously fast at ~4 sec

The 'Ludicrous mode' version are, well ludicrous at ~2.4 sec

And the Roadster 2 will have 'plaid mode' at 1.9 sec

and if you want to know where the naming convention comes from :


I like how not seriously he takes naming ....

Here is the 'ludicrous speed' easter egg


And here is the video that GIF was lifted from, with the plaid mode easter egg (see 4m in)


Oh, and Musk has recently tweeted that the 1.9s will just be the base model. There will be an option pack to take it to the 'next level' -

Last edited by GarryP; Nov 19th 2017 at 11:24 am.
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Old Nov 19th 2017, 3:58 pm
  #1114  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Plaid mode.

Good videos.

Have never watched Spaceballs, maybe I will check it out.
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Old Nov 20th 2017, 5:52 am
  #1115  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP
Motorway end of things is basically done. Town deliveries will be there by 2025, but in the meantime you can slice through driver hours and thus drivers, with plucking the low hanging fruit.

Actually, I'm not sure on that. If anything I thing volume will fall.

Once again, your understanding of the drivers on the transport business model is limited. It's about cutting costs.
Ho ho ho. That is priceless stuff. Please never ever go into business for yourself. You will limit yourself to finite profit and no shareholder wants that.

Luckily for the industry, container transportation has grown and is projected to continue to do so. What are we just going to do - stop buying stuff from other places than where we live? Do you actually believe the stuff you write?

http://portsaustralia.com.au/assets/...iner-Ports.pdf

Originally Posted by GarryP
1000km for the roadster. The truck range etc. is predicated on the manual truck driving hours which currently pertain. You can recharge in the 30min break you are legally required to take for hours on the road (smart actually, they optimised round this).


Obviously will be quiet, no big diesel engine to wake the neighbours. Not sure about the braking.

Actually it will probably be those who can downsize to reduce costs, coupled with those that have tight control of inventory (eg not Aussie retail). Store experience won't be economic. Even at present stores have a 30% markup for rent, power, spotty oik. Push that further and we'd be talking 50% markup for 'store experience' and outside Harrods, that's not going to fly.

Yeah, that should ring alarm bells, given how clueless he is.
But this is the point, they don't have a 30% markup. Simple Google Shopping will show you that. Have you actually checked? Obviously not.
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Old Nov 20th 2017, 6:08 am
  #1116  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard
Yeah, this comment had me mystified too. What are you trying to say here Beoz? Obviously, freight co's want volume, but how much more can they get?
Glad you agree. Garry seems to think they only want to cost cut which is laughable.

So how can they get more. Well driver 1. Relying on increasing need for transportation goods. As we become more and more globalised and manufacturing becomes more centralised, things need to travel from where they are made to other parts of the world. 2. If 1. fails which is unlikely, dominate your competitors (see tobacco companies - the very reason why they are still in business attracting growth, with a help from governments).

Originally Posted by Shard
Where does the volume growth come from? And if machines are doing the driving, sorting, loading, labelling, delivering, scheduling, monitoring, hiring, paying, how is this going to lead to more jobs?
You and Garry need to align. Garry seems to think that transport around town is all human.

You forgot the other jobs. Marketing, Sales, Customer Experience, Website Developers, Automation Engineers, Software Developers, HR (I wish they would be automated out of existence).
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Old Nov 20th 2017, 10:44 am
  #1117  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz
Glad you agree. Garry seems to think they only want to cost cut which is laughable.

So how can they get more. Well driver 1. Relying on increasing need for transportation goods. As we become more and more globalised and manufacturing becomes more centralised, things need to travel from where they are made to other parts of the world. 2. If 1. fails which is unlikely, dominate your competitors (see tobacco companies - the very reason why they are still in business attracting growth, with a help from governments).

.
Hmmmm. Not very convincing.

How about in an increasingly digital world the very need for physical 'stuff' is going to decline.
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Old Nov 20th 2017, 7:01 pm
  #1118  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard
Hmmmm. Not very convincing.

How about in an increasingly digital world the very need for physical 'stuff' is going to decline.
Its just fact unless of course they invent teleportation, where physical things become particles, faxed from one location to the next and reassembled at the destination.

So you don't think we will have future requirement for physical things? Buildings, roads, bridges, for starters?
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Old Nov 20th 2017, 7:08 pm
  #1119  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz
Its just fact unless of course they invent teleportation, where physical things become particles, faxed from one location to the next and reassembled at the destination.

So you don't think we will have future requirement for physical things? Buildings, roads, bridges, for starters?
Hard to say, but it's possible that the proportion of virtual to physical consumption rises. Obviously, physical infrastructure will be safe.
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Old Nov 20th 2017, 7:48 pm
  #1120  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard
Hmmmm. Not very convincing.

How about in an increasingly digital world the very need for physical 'stuff' is going to decline.
And with job automation, the ability to pay for stuff decreases (just look at retail sales).

And more, with automation, the likelihood is manufacture closer to market (cost and time savings), which means less shipping things around the world.

On the plus side, just in time delivery by drone is more a thing, particularly food.
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Old Nov 20th 2017, 7:57 pm
  #1121  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard
Hard to say, but it's possible that the proportion of virtual to physical consumption rises. Obviously, physical infrastructure will be safe.
I suppose one day we can all have the ultimate 3D printer in the garage. It prints everything from clothes (as you mentioned) to TV's.
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Old Nov 20th 2017, 8:04 pm
  #1122  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by GarryP
And with job automation, the ability to pay for stuff decreases (just look at retail sales).
You are nearly there. You conviently omitted the part about automation only increases if people are making money in order to make and implement technology.

Remember, tech companies are businesses too. They don't do things for free.

I think you are starting to get it.

Originally Posted by GarryP
And more, with automation, the likelihood is manufacture closer to market (cost and time savings), which means less shipping things around the world.
Shipping is cheap. Its too costly to set up and maintain factories in every city around the world just to avoid shipping and to sell your crazy desire that freight is on the way out. There is no business benefit to that.


Originally Posted by GarryP
On the plus side, just in time delivery by drone is more a thing, particularly food.
No money equals no drones. Catch 22.
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Old Nov 21st 2017, 8:54 pm
  #1123  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Garry. Time to put your money where your mouth is. Musk needs you. OUCH

http://www.smh.com.au/business/innovation/elon-musks-tesla-is-burning-through-10500-a-minute-as-model-3-problems-linger-20171121-gzq8p2.html
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Old Nov 22nd 2017, 8:48 am
  #1124  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Beoz
Garry. Time to put your money where your mouth is. Musk needs you. OUCH

http://www.smh.com.au/business/innovation/elon-musks-tesla-is-burning-through-10500-a-minute-as-model-3-problems-linger-20171121-gzq8p2.html
Sounding a bit ominous. Could Elon have bitten off more than he can chew?! He does seem to have a working prototype of the roadster, so 'founder funding' isn't as speculative as it could be, but engineering success and commercial success are two different games.
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Old Nov 22nd 2017, 8:57 am
  #1125  
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Default Re: The world of automation

Originally Posted by Shard
Sounding a bit ominous. Could Elon have bitten off more than he can chew?!
Not really, the quarter being reported is when they were spending all the money for scaling up Model 3 production. Usual rates are much lower, and obviously that car will start turning over the cash soonish.

Even with the recent bad news etc. the Tesla Market Cap is still $53.41B

And Ford is $48.14B ....
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