NKSK version 2

Would some kind soul with an economics bent like to predict what the impact of this will be on Perth prices?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...et.houseprices

renth

Hopefully drop 50% too.

stu:0

God im glad i sold mine back in the uk! Sold it in April and got full asking price which was far more than i expected so if anyone is getting depressed back there, there are still buyers out there!

Muzza04

Depends how much the banks will tighten up the previously lax/easy credit lines.

Starting already.

ie Lending multiples will shorten, supply will rise and demand fall.

NedKelly

You don't need an economics bent to work out that since large numbers of Brits move to Perth and buy houses there, they will not have as much money to spend.

The exchange rate is a double wammy as well as the Oz dollar strenghtens.

It can't be positive for house prices.

NKSK version 2

This is what I think. If things don't go well and we end up staying in Perth then I'll need to buy - but if prices in the UK collapse and they stabilise or rise here then we might as well give up now.

Anybody offer a contrary view - i.e. that prices in Perth will continue to rise or stabilise?

renth

No chance, the same will happen in Perth, already is but the media aren't making such a big song and dance about it as in the UK. Prices already falling, loads of stock on the market. If I were renting right now I'd wait at least 12 months, probably longer and then pick up a bargain, preferably off a desperate investor who has to sell.

NKSK version 2

You'll be selling about then won't you - on your way to The Good Life?!

ianhutch1

There is no way that UK house prices are going to fall 50% in 4 years, imagine the chaos that would cause the whole country would go into a meltdown

Prices are going to drop, as they will in Perth, but that figure is just ridiculous...

Makes me glad we sold our house in the UK now instead of renting it out, brought our equity to Australia where we will sit on it for a couple of years earning decent interest to see how things pan out - I can see a drop in house prices over here of around 10-15% in the next couple of years and around the same in the UK.

worzel

What a load of rubbish. UK Population is increasing, land available for building is decreasing. It is basic economics that rising demand and decreasing supply means price rises (in the long-term).

As for Perth, the number of people coming in is still high and land released by the government low so there won't be a big change unless the resources boom becomes more of a whimper or the government agrees to bulldoze a few forests. Okay there has been a small decrease in prices recently but it is only a correction of the stupid price rises we saw a year ago when everyone started panicing.

renth

That's right, I want mine to drop 50% 'cos the one I'm buying will have dropped 50% and I'll "only" have to pay $20,000 stamp duty instead of $40,000

renth

Sorry Worzel, I disagree. It's not about the supply and demand of housing/land, it never has been. The house price bubble has been entirely driven by cheap credit which has now dried up. It's game over.

Amazulu

I think Perth prices will stay stagnant and possibly fall - but not as drastically as 50%. Fundamentals are sound. WA economy is growing at 7-odd % per year. Unemployment is around 3-4% ie full employment. Many people moving here and there is a dire shortage of rentals.

My opinion but ultimately, who knows?

NedKelly

Supply and demand has nothing to do with it. It is all about affordability. The UK population is increasing with third world paupers who can't afford to buy a house.

In Perth, unless wages rise significantly there is no way house prices will go up. People can't afford the increased mortgages they already have.

Amazulu

And I'll disagree with you. I think cheap credit was only half the problem. UK has a lot of people in a small space. It's a prosperous country, and although economically in a bit of a mess at the moment, will not always be. When the economy turns round, housing demand will increase again.