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UK House Prices to drop another 55%..

UK House Prices to drop another 55%..

Old Mar 12th 2009, 12:39 pm
  #16  
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Default Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..

Something major would have to happen to cause a further 55% fall sentiment alone isnt going to do it either wages will need to contract heavily (unlikely) or interest rates will need to increase heavily (not that unlikely - given the amount of money swishing around the western world right now in the form of govt stimulus packages.)
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Old Mar 12th 2009, 1:34 pm
  #17  
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Default Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..

I posted my thoughts on the Barbie, so for those who want to read it...... (it's long!)

This is quite interesting, but alarmist!

For the record, I am a housing developer, and whilst it is difficult to sell new houses at the moment, it is not impossible. Since the start of the new year, I have found that there are more people looking around and naturally they all are looking for incentives in the way of price drops, carpets and other goodies thrown in. This is all par for the course now.

There are people out there who have sold previously and are in a position to buy back into the market and now consider this a good time to pick up a bargain. However, there are many who want to move, but have a property to sell or can't get a mortgage.

Experiences to date include people who have been given the green light for a mortgage only to have the deposit amount required increase TWICE in the week, then the multiple salary calculation change, then no approval via a broker arranged mortgage and then finally agreed with the same company by direct face to face contact. In effect, the banks/mortgage companies seem to be making up their in house rules on a day to day basis and the staff themselves do not know what the rules will be tomorrow! What hope have the public got!

Putting the whole immediate picture into perspective, we had a housing shortage. We needed to build more to cope with existing demand. We have now virtually ceased to build new houses, yet the original demand is there and increasing as more people move out, get divorced etc. What is holding it all back is finance availability.

Whilst it is true that people over extended themselves and prices were increasing excessively, the finance will ,over time, ease. Then more people will look to buy, but there will not be the availability. Now bearing in mind that the big name housebuilders such as Barratt, Taylor Wimpey and Bovis have cut staffing levels by up to 2/3rds they will not have the staff available to suddenly increase production. The Trades are also loosing people, so again the labour will not be there when the tap starts again.

So,..... finance eases, more people than present want to buy, very limited supply.........prices increase again and the whole story starts again!!!!

This is based upon experience "on the ground"

TD
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Old Mar 12th 2009, 1:42 pm
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Default Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..

I remember back in '90 people who needed to sell couldn't give their houses away. My landlord bought his house for 140k 18 months prior offered to me for 90k, a neighbour city worker had their house reposessed and another neighbour packed their belongings in the night & pushed the keys back through their door. Yet it seems so much worse this time.
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Old Mar 12th 2009, 3:01 pm
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Default Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..

Originally Posted by Toe Dipper View Post
I posted my thoughts on the Barbie, so for those who want to read it...... (it's long!)

This is quite interesting, but alarmist!

For the record, I am a housing developer, and whilst it is difficult to sell new houses at the moment, it is not impossible. Since the start of the new year, I have found that there are more people looking around and naturally they all are looking for incentives in the way of price drops, carpets and other goodies thrown in. This is all par for the course now.

There are people out there who have sold previously and are in a position to buy back into the market and now consider this a good time to pick up a bargain. However, there are many who want to move, but have a property to sell or can't get a mortgage.

Experiences to date include people who have been given the green light for a mortgage only to have the deposit amount required increase TWICE in the week, then the multiple salary calculation change, then no approval via a broker arranged mortgage and then finally agreed with the same company by direct face to face contact. In effect, the banks/mortgage companies seem to be making up their in house rules on a day to day basis and the staff themselves do not know what the rules will be tomorrow! What hope have the public got!

Putting the whole immediate picture into perspective, we had a housing shortage. We needed to build more to cope with existing demand. We have now virtually ceased to build new houses, yet the original demand is there and increasing as more people move out, get divorced etc. What is holding it all back is finance availability.

Whilst it is true that people over extended themselves and prices were increasing excessively, the finance will ,over time, ease. Then more people will look to buy, but there will not be the availability. Now bearing in mind that the big name housebuilders such as Barratt, Taylor Wimpey and Bovis have cut staffing levels by up to 2/3rds they will not have the staff available to suddenly increase production. The Trades are also loosing people, so again the labour will not be there when the tap starts again.

So,..... finance eases, more people than present want to buy, very limited supply.........prices increase again and the whole story starts again!!!!

This is based upon experience "on the ground"

TD
at last someone talking sence
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Old Mar 12th 2009, 3:10 pm
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Default Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..

I would take anything alarmist prediction like this with a pinch of salt. Yes, some houses may lose more value. But there will come a point when sellers will simply say "no, I will not take any less for this house". The value of a property is simply what people are willing to trade for it.
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Old Mar 12th 2009, 7:56 pm
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Default Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..

Originally Posted by Toe Dipper View Post
I posted my thoughts on the Barbie, so for those who want to read it...... (it's long!)

This is quite interesting, but alarmist!

For the record, I am a housing developer, and whilst it is difficult to sell new houses at the moment, it is not impossible. Since the start of the new year, I have found that there are more people looking around and naturally they all are looking for incentives in the way of price drops, carpets and other goodies thrown in. This is all par for the course now.

There are people out there who have sold previously and are in a position to buy back into the market and now consider this a good time to pick up a bargain. However, there are many who want to move, but have a property to sell or can't get a mortgage.

Experiences to date include people who have been given the green light for a mortgage only to have the deposit amount required increase TWICE in the week, then the multiple salary calculation change, then no approval via a broker arranged mortgage and then finally agreed with the same company by direct face to face contact. In effect, the banks/mortgage companies seem to be making up their in house rules on a day to day basis and the staff themselves do not know what the rules will be tomorrow! What hope have the public got!

Putting the whole immediate picture into perspective, we had a housing shortage. We needed to build more to cope with existing demand. We have now virtually ceased to build new houses, yet the original demand is there and increasing as more people move out, get divorced etc. What is holding it all back is finance availability.

Whilst it is true that people over extended themselves and prices were increasing excessively, the finance will ,over time, ease. Then more people will look to buy, but there will not be the availability. Now bearing in mind that the big name housebuilders such as Barratt, Taylor Wimpey and Bovis have cut staffing levels by up to 2/3rds they will not have the staff available to suddenly increase production. The Trades are also loosing people, so again the labour will not be there when the tap starts again.

So,..... finance eases, more people than present want to buy, very limited supply.........prices increase again and the whole story starts again!!!!

This is based upon experience "on the ground"

TD
I so hope you are right!

I was stupid enough to buy again back here in the UK,, so cannot go back to OZ until we get our money back on this house
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Old Mar 12th 2009, 8:14 pm
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Default Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..

More scaremongering by the press. Half of me thinks this entire property bubble was built by and destroyed by the media with nothing else to do.

Sad thing is we still can't sell our house in the UK.
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Old Mar 12th 2009, 9:06 pm
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Default Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..

Alarmist maybe, but possibly not inaccurate. The more I read about the state of the US and UK economies, the more I believe that this downturn will be long and hard in both those countries, and we are talking years, not months.

It could be 2012 before any signs of recovery start in the UK from the latest predictions.
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Old Mar 12th 2009, 9:52 pm
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Default Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..

Originally Posted by bigAPE View Post
Sad thing is we still can't sell our house in the UK.
Everything will sell if the price is set appropriate to market condition.
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Old Mar 12th 2009, 10:01 pm
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Default Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..

Originally Posted by ossigeno View Post
Everything will sell if the price is set appropriate to market condition.
Bit flippant.. if you are talking about paying 20c for something, then only being able to get 19c when you try and sell it, then fair enough.... but if you have paid 200 grand for it and can now only get 150 grand then that's a life impacting loss for most people... one that most people simply can't manage
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Old Mar 12th 2009, 10:16 pm
  #26  
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Default Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..

Originally Posted by iamthecreaturefromuranus View Post
Bit flippant.. if you are talking about paying 20c for something, then only being able to get 19c when you try and sell it, then fair enough.... but if you have paid 200 grand for it and can now only get 150 grand then that's a life impacting loss for most people... one that most people simply can't manage
Maybe, but that's the reality. The trick is to make sure you are in a position where you don't have to sell.

This recession will be over a lot quicker if governments just let the economy collapse. Throwing good money after bad is only going to makes things worse. Over-consumption in the housing market has caused this. The remedy has to include that market collapsing.
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Old Mar 12th 2009, 10:25 pm
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Default Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..

Originally Posted by Burbage View Post
Maybe, but that's the reality. The trick is to make sure you are in a position where you don't have to sell.
Easy to say. Not so easy to do. Given that possibly millions of people in the UK are likely to lose their jobs over the next few years having to sell will be a reality for many of them
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Old Mar 13th 2009, 2:10 am
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Default Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..

Originally Posted by northernlights View Post
The respected Numis Securities says the UK house price collapse is nowhere near over - another 55% drop.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-bankrupt.html

Is this a group of experts similar to those that failed to predict a slump in the first place... ???
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Old Mar 13th 2009, 2:31 am
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Default Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..

Originally Posted by iamthecreaturefromuranus View Post
Easy to say. Not so easy to do. Given that possibly millions of people in the UK are likely to lose their jobs over the next few years having to sell will be a reality for many of them
And that is why the prices go down. Oversupply.

Keep your job and pay off your debts. It's the way you'll get through this depression.
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Old Mar 13th 2009, 2:32 am
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Default Re: UK House Prices to drop another 55%..

Originally Posted by iamthecreaturefromuranus View Post
Easy to say. Not so easy to do. Given that possibly millions of people in the UK are likely to lose their jobs over the next few years having to sell will be a reality for many of them
Yes but buying houses is always a risk. I think some of the problem is that buying houses has been seen as a 'safe' investment.

The housing market always goes up and down in cycles, and has been very strong until recently.
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