Re: a simple man with a few simple questions
 

The problem is that only one sector of our economy (mining) is doing really well and it only accounts for a small % of GDP, retail, housing, manufacturing etc are all struggling. If China is affected by this current crisis then watch out.

[QUOTE=aston;9542194]
saying that is it obvious that australia is doing so well because it has more to sell to the world where as the u.k etc. has sod all.
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Re: a simple man with a few simple questions
 

Well let me clarify my predictions:

1. an end to high spending by Western governments. Unemployment benefits, pensions, infrastructure investments, medical and health care, armed forces, education, will all be cut back to a minimum, because in simple terms we don't earn enough as nations to pay for the level of spending.

In fact the process is already underway in Europe, with countries like Greece and Ireland cutting back of government spending. The UK is also into it, cutting back the military etc.

The West will look far different by 2025 to how it did in 2000, or even today. The result will be greater disparity between the "haves" and the "have nots". The sort of disparity I see in my work in Indonesia. However in those countries the "have nots" are "never hads". When you tell a UK worker he cant afford a car and fuel for it, he sees it as a drastic reduction in his/her standard of living. When you tell the same to a worker from Bandung he or she simply shrugs...


2. Protectionism will commence to protect what is left of national economies. This will create issues between nations as they vie for markets and resources.

On a micro scale I am Tonga this week. I met a USMC LTCOL, who is part of a team training up the Tongan Defence Force.

China aid is everywhere here, new buildings, new roads. Unless you see it with your own eyes you would not believe how China is buying influence in the Pacific via infrastructure aid projects.

The LTCOL was quite open in saying "we cant compete with China for aid any more, all we can do is offer our military assistance". (The UK did this for many years after it couldn't afford direct aid). Even then, it is being done on the cheap.

Meanwhile in Kiribati the aid is flowing in from Taiwan. In exchange the Taiwanese now have the fishing rights to the largest Tuna fishing grounds in the world. Until a couple of years ago most of the aid money came from Japan - and they had the fishing rights.

Last week Japan announced that it would "assist" Kiribati by building a deep water port costing around $57 million. Guess who will get the Tuna rights next...

The world is now in a situation rather like pre WW1, with nations not looking for a "place in the sun" as Germany did, but for markets and resources.

It may not be apocalyptic - but it isn't good. We have run out of money at a time when world resources are dwindling. We gave away our economic might with open trade agreements. We have run out of credit. We are in effect the jobless bums of the world. And there isn't a soup kitchen.

Re: a simple man with a few simple questions
 

Asia has always been at the top of the tree. The past 300 years have merely been a blip, and the state of affairs is returning to normality as far as they are concerned. They had technology when the west was merely mud grubbing peasants, ignorant of their existance.

Perhaps the "apocalypse" predicted by the Mayans (according to western scholars) is really an economic one, but such an enormous change that it is totally destructive to society, and the west will cease to exist in its present form!:blink::eek:

Re: a simple man with a few simple questions
 

THE federal government is pushing back against rising protectionist sentiment amid a clamour from across the political spectrum for measures to do more to protect local manufacturing.

http://www.smh.com.au/national/calls...823-1j8ih.html