Pollyana

Glad not everyone thinks I am completely deranged (though I freely admit that my mental health is starting to concern me). I just don't understand how they can allow this lot in, especially "self-policing" after the fiasco of the last time.

Non paywalled article https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-...tine/100420252

Meanwhile people like my neighbour, who is in her 80s, are not allowed to return home to Queensland. She went to NSW to visit her grandchildren the week before the Sydney lockdown started. She can't come back, even though her home would be perfect for 2 weeks in isolation.

Pollyana

Just in case anyone still has their eye on travelling again - NSW just halved its flight cap to 750 incoming pax per week.

physiogirl76

Devastating news for all those wanting to return - including myself. My flight via Singapore is supposed to land on 2 October - who knows whether it will go ahead now.

But overall, NSW has been accepting the majority of returning citizens/residents (unlike other states who have no issue locking out their own residents from interstate) and is pushing ahead in the vaccine roll out so that flight caps can be reinstated to previous caps and eventually allow home quarantine for fully vaccinated travellers. WA and QLD are nowhere near considering this option despite having agreed to the National Plan. It looks like they are dead set on pursuing long term zero Covid which is public health la la land. Seriously, I am getting sick of listening to AP who is boasting about 'donut days' and McGowan talking about 'crushing and killing' the virus as if it's just a big cockroach to deal with. None of them has an adult conversation with their people - namely, even with high vaccination rates, there will be Covid cases, there will be hospitalisations and - sadly - there will be deaths (like it's the case with all infectious diseases). There is no sense of urgency which is showing the vaccine uptake in their states. They are happy to remain isolated.

A few weeks ago, I joked that NSW would open international borders (with public health measures) before Qld and WA open their domestic borders. Well, this (ridiculous) scenario seems more and more likely now and people in Sydney might be able to board a flight to Singapore, UK etc. - but not to Perth or Brisbane.

Even Scomo mentioned this possibility:
https://www.theguardian.com/australi...me-destination
But he warned there could be two tiers of Australian travellers if some states refused to open up while others allowed home quarantine for people returning.

“In states that aren’t locking others out … there will be the opportunity for people to go and travel and return to Australia and quarantine at home, and that people in those states who are overseas can come back to Australia,” Morrison said.

Pollyana

You could well be right. Not only AP but most of the people in Qld support ongoing border closures. AP is talking about instant lockdowns for 1 case, even after hitting 80% which means most of us will not dare to travel, Quarantine is now 2 weeks plus 3 days at home and its beyond the reach of finances and annual leave for most of us. I can't mention travelling home now, when I'm at work, it just sparks off a barrage of warnings about how life outside Qld is dangerous, I should stay here forever & not consider leaving etc.

Beoz

The best thing for QLD right now would be an outbreak. It would get the hillbillies, bogans and rednecks vaccinated and prepare Qld for what it's like living with Covid. Otherwise you are just delaying what's going to happen anyway.

Which might happen over Christmas ........ now that would be a whoops wouldn't it.

ozzieeagle

It has to happen eventually, trouble is it could take months or even seasons before it does. One things for sure, eventually it will and all of this lockdown will have proven to be futile.

Victoria can't contain delta despite a mostly compliant populace. So what does that tell the rest of Aus or indeed the world. Aside from shoot on sight, there is no way to control the small percentage of people that will never ever comply and thus the spread continues. For every protester, there are probably dozens of people that walk around shops, just for something to do or indeed visit family etc.

I keep repeating on other forums, we are going to look dead stupid in our efforts to contain this and our reactions to this outbreak in decades to come... perhaps as soon as 5 years before we realise how ridiculous we were. The whole emphasis should have been on boosting the health care system to war like degrees whilst keeping everything open as much as possible. Would have had a better health care system as a legacy at the end of all of this.... instead of mountains of debt, declined business and a freaked out populace.


Covid is here to stay and whilst the provincial parts of Australia insist on it's eradication then Australia is going to lag the rest of the world. Unless indeed Sydney does cause a shift in thinking.

Sadly it's still 50 - 50 eradication v living with in Victoria, so the first battle to open will be here. I'm sure it will though. The other states seemingly are way behind that figure, perhaps with the exception of the ACT.

Beoz

I think its pretty certain now its the latter in Victoria. Dan is already planning the live with covid strategy and I don't think he has a choice. Melbourne is too worldy and cosmopolitan to follow the WA and Qld route. Dan knows that would end in disaster for him politically should he try to continue with Melbourne under the blanket.

abner

Get a grip.

The natural "R" number for the Delta variant is roughly 5. The current R numbers for Australian regions with a current Delta outbreak, under a varying set of restrictions, range from 1.2 (Victoria) to 1.7 (those parts of NSW that are not deemed "LGAs of concern")

The case counts, hospitalisation counts, ICU counts, and death counts would have all exploded by now--well beyond what they have already--if we'd avoided even the namby-pamby lockdown as experienced in NSW, and let Delta rip at its natural pace.

Oh, and that would have shredded the Doherty model that the Feds (and Gladys) are relying upon to justify further opening up at 70 - 80% "fully vaccinated", because the TTIQ part of the Doherty model would be overwhelmed completely by the extra case counts involved.

ozzieeagle

So your totally discounting the unavoidable probability that a mutation will eventually get through. Through the Vaccines, the quarantines, the masks, the social distancing et al?

As the rest of the world opens, then it is totally inevitable that eventually, Australia will succumb en masse. The resources, efforts and finances would have far better been directed at dealing with the situation in bolstering the health system, protecting the aged care homes and isolating the most vulnerable, than trying to eradicate "King Canute" style.

That my friend is exactly what the historians will say, absolutely and totally rock-solid guaranteed. The focus has all been wrong and Australias main bout with Covid is yet to come.

For every protester out there, there are probably 50 or more people wandering the shops, visiting family, generally disregarding rules. Queensland and WA are in for the mother of all shocks once the real contagious mutations start.

Beoz

And what's your alternative? Chase zeros? Well that's proving to be impossible now isn't it.

We will move on regardless of the test, trace, isolate, and quarrentine capabilities.

There comes a point where covid becomes irrelevant against the wider implications of lockdown.

There's becoming increasingly less single minded individuals like you out there who place covid above all else. That rhetoric is becoming increasingly muted by the day in the 2 biggest cities. The rest will follow.

abner

"unavoidable probability"?? "totally inevitable"?? "totally rock-solid guaranteed"??

What was your epidemiologist qualification again?

Again, get a grip.

Even Gladys is focused on maintaining social contact restrictions, particularly in "LGAs of concern"--where all the Labor voters live--as a firebreak on the Delta outbreak, until higher 2-dose vaccination levels are achieved across the population as a whole.

Holding the fort, until truly significant levels of vaccination are achieved, remains the best strategy under present circumstances. If Covid does evolve to represent some significant threat after that--not a foreordained outcome-- then deal with that.

Beoz

Anna Palette and McGowen style scare mongering. Fill the bogan full of fear. Are you seriously buying this?

PS, Gladys imposed these restrictions on the LGA's of concern, like curfews, because crazy fear mongers applied so much pressure, it was an attempt to seen to be doing something. Guess what, additional restrictions have failed. They have done nothing except increase numbers. You have to ask and laugh why the areas not under increased restrictions have flat or decreasing numbers. Yep they happen to be Labor seats but they hold 80% plus of cases in NSW. Yes they are more mobile workers, yes they live in larger families but most importantly, they can't follow the rules.

Pollyana

The Qld route is going to end up with borders still shut when everyone else is moving (unless you are an NRL hanger on, in which case you can do as you wish).
Crafty old APs latest ploy is to bring the children into it - and what better way to appeal to her grass-roots "keep the foreigners out" supporters? Can't possibly consider opening up at 80% because we aren't considering the children enough.

Beoz

I saw that. Risking death of our kids, I mean seriously how is this awful woman going to unwind this.

My daughter got pulled from day care in Sydney last week because their was a case at the school next door. My suburb had zero cases until then. One of the day care teachers had a child attending school so it was just a precaution. Repeat negative tests by the day care teacher so daughter is back at day care. I did a tonne of research on the effects and for 99.9% of kids under 10 it's a cold at best, and long Covid goes for about 2 months if they suffer at all.

We are all going to get it at some point, even harsh restrictions can't stop Delta. Just protect with vaccines and crack on.

Pollyana

She got the right line to appeal to the masses of Queensland for sure. Someone said to me at work, not too long back, that she hoped I realise that if I go and visit my family, then I may be responsible for the death of her daughter when I return. Did wonders for my mental state hearing that
But that sort of view is now being reinforced by She Who Must Be Obeyed.