The road to freedom

Old Aug 24th 2021, 11:53 am
  #91  
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Default Re: The road to freedom

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Old Aug 24th 2021, 12:27 pm
  #92  
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Default Re: The road to freedom

Originally Posted by Beoz
On first dose WA will be sometime mid Oct. (Without an outbreak). I reckon that may push out further. You could get there quicker with an outbreak but without one, people just won't feel the rush. From there who know. Plenty don't turn up for their second in other parts of the world with greater Covid numbers

In contrast NSW will get to 70% first dose in about 1 week and if it can keep the high case numbers going NSW should be 70% fully vaxxed by end of Sept.

In the grand scheme of things we will end up seeing the winner and loser on the vaccine race about 2 months apart.

The problem with the Guardian, ABC, SMH vaccine forecast tools is their growth is linear and they don't take into account exponential growth of vaccine uptake from an outbreak, or vaccination laziness from zeros.

Either way, WA will be living under the blankets for a long time. The best thing that could happen to WA is an outbreak, scare the pants off people, and question McGowan's strategy, whatever that is.

Qld will have to come out from under the blanket. Their economy relies on it. They won't have a choice.
The country will generally be all done by the end of November. Whether we get to 80% (NSW, WA or Overall) remains to be seen. The UK is kind of stuck on 75% of adults - and they've absolutely smashed their vaccination program. Basically, everyone there who wants a jab has had one and they're getting into the anti-vaxxers, procrastinators, stubbornaters etc and those who can't have a vaccine for medical reasons. I was reading something the other day that only 11% of people here will refuse a jab, but I reckon it's probably a bit higher than that

The tiny difference in vaccine uptake between WA and NSW can basically be put down to the fact that we don't have a Delta outbreak but NSW does - that kind of shit tends to sharpen the prodding stick. There's a lot of complacency here. We'll all get there in a few months - different states at slightly different speeds but generally it's all good

I can't stand him but McGowan is still popular with a majority of voters, but is going to regret his recent dictats early next year if he follows through with them. It remains to be seen if he will - he's lots of things but stupid he ain't

Last edited by Amazulu; Aug 24th 2021 at 12:32 pm.
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Old Aug 24th 2021, 1:08 pm
  #93  
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Default Re: The road to freedom

Originally Posted by Amazulu
The country will generally be all done by the end of November. Whether we get to 80% (NSW, WA or Overall) remains to be seen. The UK is kind of stuck on 75% of adults - and they've absolutely smashed their vaccination program. Basically, everyone there who wants a jab has had one and they're getting into the anti-vaxxers, procrastinators, stubbornaters etc and those who can't have a vaccine for medical reasons. I was reading something the other day that only 11% of people here will refuse a jab, but I reckon it's probably a bit higher than that

The tiny difference in vaccine uptake between WA and NSW can basically be put down to the fact that we don't have a Delta outbreak but NSW does - that kind of shit tends to sharpen the prodding stick. There's a lot of complacency here. We'll all get there in a few months - different states at slightly different speeds but generally it's all good

I can't stand him but McGowan is still popular with a majority of voters, but is going to regret his recent dictats early next year if he follows through with them. It remains to be seen if he will - he's lots of things but stupid he ain't
Yep. I don't think Australia will get to 80% either. Very few have. There's a lot more than that 11% I do agree.

Closer to 90% is what they are saying is required for herd immunity for delta, unless they can modify the recipe so it can be less of the population.

Speaking of which, they say mRNA is easily adaptable to different strains but we aren't seeing that do far.

I am sure McGowen will change but he will have to accept cases. That's the bit he is going to struggle to sell.
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Old Aug 24th 2021, 1:09 pm
  #94  
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Default Re: The road to freedom

Originally Posted by spouse of scouse
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All righty then.
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Old Aug 25th 2021, 6:01 am
  #95  
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Default Re: The road to freedom

Originally Posted by Beoz
Yep. I don't think Australia will get to 80% either. Very few have. There's a lot more than that 11% I do agree.
Having an actual target might push a few people, the UK just had a date set so no real pressure for the lazy to get jabbed.
Having a vaccine requirement to play the pokies to push the rest.
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Old Aug 25th 2021, 9:03 am
  #96  
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Default Re: The road to freedom

Originally Posted by themerlin
Having an actual target might push a few people, the UK just had a date set so no real pressure for the lazy to get jabbed.
Having a vaccine requirement to play the pokies to push the rest.
Ha. Vaccines to play the pokies is a belter.

Why is it you can colour a map of a city and the vaccination rates follows the wealth rate. It seems to be the same in all cities. The stuff is free.
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Old Aug 25th 2021, 9:56 am
  #97  
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Default Re: The road to freedom

Originally Posted by Beoz
Yep. I don't think Australia will get to 80% either. Very few have. There's a lot more than that 11% I do agree.

Closer to 90% is what they are saying is required for herd immunity for delta, unless they can modify the recipe so it can be less of the population.

Speaking of which, they say mRNA is easily adaptable to different strains but we aren't seeing that do far.

I am sure McGowen will change but he will have to accept cases. That's the bit he is going to struggle to sell.
We'll get there - those that want the jab will get it, and those that don't will likely get Covid so still get immunity
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Old Aug 25th 2021, 12:13 pm
  #98  
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Default Re: The road to freedom

No freedom for Queensland. Locked up tighter than ever......
  • On 25 August 2021, the Premier announced an immediate pause on interstate hotspot arrivals. From midday today, no-one will be permitted to enter Queensland and enter hotel quarantine for a period of two weeks except for those with exemptions including for compassionate reasons. This includes returning Queensland residents.
The hotels are all full.
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Old Aug 25th 2021, 12:43 pm
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Default Re: The road to freedom

Originally Posted by Pollyana
No freedom for Queensland. Locked up tighter than ever......
  • On 25 August 2021, the Premier announced an immediate pause on interstate hotspot arrivals. From midday today, no-one will be permitted to enter Queensland and enter hotel quarantine for a period of two weeks except for those with exemptions including for compassionate reasons. This includes returning Queensland residents.
The hotels are all full.
Isn't Queensland the holiday state? On the back of that you would think there was plenty of empty hotels.
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Old Aug 25th 2021, 1:21 pm
  #100  
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Default Re: The road to freedom

Originally Posted by Beoz
Isn't Queensland the holiday state? On the back of that you would think there was plenty of empty hotels.
There are, loads of them, but only 22 are in use as quarantine hotels, and the government are refusing to sign up any more. The 22 are full, to the point where people are kept waiting on buses while their rooms are cleaned after the release of the previous batch of prisoners.
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Old Aug 25th 2021, 7:12 pm
  #101  
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Default Re: The road to freedom

"Have we misunderstood the Doherty model?"

Quite sobering, but well worth a listen (first 10 minutes of the overall podcast).

ScoMo from Marketing appears to have misunderstood--and misportrayed--the implications of the modelling that he is pinning his Covid-19 recovery strategy on.

Last edited by abner; Aug 25th 2021 at 7:29 pm.
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Old Aug 26th 2021, 5:19 am
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Default Re: The road to freedom

Jagged a Pfizer jab this morning and a booking for the second in 3 weeks even though I’m not eligible (over 60). It’s who you know, not what you know…
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Old Aug 26th 2021, 9:18 am
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Default Re: The road to freedom

Originally Posted by Retirednow
Jagged a Pfizer jab this morning and a booking for the second in 3 weeks even though I’m not eligible (over 60). It’s who you know, not what you know…
Good luck. Pfizer is turning out to be a dud. 5 months worth of protection best. Wish I had a choice at the time. Would have had AZ. Much longer protection.
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Old Aug 26th 2021, 9:18 am
  #104  
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Default Re: The road to freedom

Originally Posted by abner
"Have we misunderstood the Doherty model?"

Quite sobering, but well worth a listen (first 10 minutes of the overall podcast).

ScoMo from Marketing appears to have misunderstood--and misportrayed--the implications of the modelling that he is pinning his Covid-19 recovery strategy on.
Lost interest when the self serviing Norman Swan introduced himself.
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Old Aug 26th 2021, 10:23 am
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Default Re: The road to freedom

Originally Posted by Beoz
Good luck. Pfizer is turning out to be a dud. 5 months worth of protection best. Wish I had a choice at the time. Would have had AZ. Much longer protection.
Don't think it makes a big difference, the effectiveness of AZ and Pfizer both diminishes over time: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02261-8

However, you are still protected against severe disease/hospitalisation when vaccinated. They reckon, they will need booster shots for the elderly after about 8 months - this is what Germany is planning - but the younger/healthy ones will be fine. As long as Covid is circulating in the community, the immune system of vaccinated people will get natural boosters (as most of them will have no or little symptoms when infected). Then, there is the option of "mix and match" vaccines to increase effectiveness (some countries are recommending this already). And one day, the 2nd generation of vaccines will likely be more effective against the Delta variant as well.

I know 2 people here who recently caught Covid (Delta variant) despite being vaccinated - one person had Pfizer (in January), the other one AZ (2nd jab in May/June). The AZ guy had underlying issues (COPD, lung cancer) so Covid could have been a death sentence for him. Instead, he spent a week at home in bed, feeling crook but didn't need to be admitted to hospital. Exactly what the vaccines are supposed to do.

Last edited by physiogirl76; Aug 26th 2021 at 10:26 am.
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