The road to freedom
#92
Re: The road to freedom
On first dose WA will be sometime mid Oct. (Without an outbreak). I reckon that may push out further. You could get there quicker with an outbreak but without one, people just won't feel the rush. From there who know. Plenty don't turn up for their second in other parts of the world with greater Covid numbers
In contrast NSW will get to 70% first dose in about 1 week and if it can keep the high case numbers going NSW should be 70% fully vaxxed by end of Sept.
In the grand scheme of things we will end up seeing the winner and loser on the vaccine race about 2 months apart.
The problem with the Guardian, ABC, SMH vaccine forecast tools is their growth is linear and they don't take into account exponential growth of vaccine uptake from an outbreak, or vaccination laziness from zeros.
Either way, WA will be living under the blankets for a long time. The best thing that could happen to WA is an outbreak, scare the pants off people, and question McGowan's strategy, whatever that is.
Qld will have to come out from under the blanket. Their economy relies on it. They won't have a choice.
In contrast NSW will get to 70% first dose in about 1 week and if it can keep the high case numbers going NSW should be 70% fully vaxxed by end of Sept.
In the grand scheme of things we will end up seeing the winner and loser on the vaccine race about 2 months apart.
The problem with the Guardian, ABC, SMH vaccine forecast tools is their growth is linear and they don't take into account exponential growth of vaccine uptake from an outbreak, or vaccination laziness from zeros.
Either way, WA will be living under the blankets for a long time. The best thing that could happen to WA is an outbreak, scare the pants off people, and question McGowan's strategy, whatever that is.
Qld will have to come out from under the blanket. Their economy relies on it. They won't have a choice.
The tiny difference in vaccine uptake between WA and NSW can basically be put down to the fact that we don't have a Delta outbreak but NSW does - that kind of shit tends to sharpen the prodding stick. There's a lot of complacency here. We'll all get there in a few months - different states at slightly different speeds but generally it's all good
I can't stand him but McGowan is still popular with a majority of voters, but is going to regret his recent dictats early next year if he follows through with them. It remains to be seen if he will - he's lots of things but stupid he ain't
Last edited by Amazulu; Aug 24th 2021 at 12:32 pm.
#93
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Thread Starter
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The road to freedom
The country will generally be all done by the end of November. Whether we get to 80% (NSW, WA or Overall) remains to be seen. The UK is kind of stuck on 75% of adults - and they've absolutely smashed their vaccination program. Basically, everyone there who wants a jab has had one and they're getting into the anti-vaxxers, procrastinators, stubbornaters etc and those who can't have a vaccine for medical reasons. I was reading something the other day that only 11% of people here will refuse a jab, but I reckon it's probably a bit higher than that
The tiny difference in vaccine uptake between WA and NSW can basically be put down to the fact that we don't have a Delta outbreak but NSW does - that kind of shit tends to sharpen the prodding stick. There's a lot of complacency here. We'll all get there in a few months - different states at slightly different speeds but generally it's all good
I can't stand him but McGowan is still popular with a majority of voters, but is going to regret his recent dictats early next year if he follows through with them. It remains to be seen if he will - he's lots of things but stupid he ain't
The tiny difference in vaccine uptake between WA and NSW can basically be put down to the fact that we don't have a Delta outbreak but NSW does - that kind of shit tends to sharpen the prodding stick. There's a lot of complacency here. We'll all get there in a few months - different states at slightly different speeds but generally it's all good
I can't stand him but McGowan is still popular with a majority of voters, but is going to regret his recent dictats early next year if he follows through with them. It remains to be seen if he will - he's lots of things but stupid he ain't
Closer to 90% is what they are saying is required for herd immunity for delta, unless they can modify the recipe so it can be less of the population.
Speaking of which, they say mRNA is easily adaptable to different strains but we aren't seeing that do far.
I am sure McGowen will change but he will have to accept cases. That's the bit he is going to struggle to sell.
#95
Re: The road to freedom
Having a vaccine requirement to play the pokies to push the rest.
#96
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Thread Starter
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The road to freedom
Why is it you can colour a map of a city and the vaccination rates follows the wealth rate. It seems to be the same in all cities. The stuff is free.
#97
Re: The road to freedom
Yep. I don't think Australia will get to 80% either. Very few have. There's a lot more than that 11% I do agree.
Closer to 90% is what they are saying is required for herd immunity for delta, unless they can modify the recipe so it can be less of the population.
Speaking of which, they say mRNA is easily adaptable to different strains but we aren't seeing that do far.
I am sure McGowen will change but he will have to accept cases. That's the bit he is going to struggle to sell.
Closer to 90% is what they are saying is required for herd immunity for delta, unless they can modify the recipe so it can be less of the population.
Speaking of which, they say mRNA is easily adaptable to different strains but we aren't seeing that do far.
I am sure McGowen will change but he will have to accept cases. That's the bit he is going to struggle to sell.
#98
Home and Happy
Joined: Dec 2002
Location: Keep true friends and puppets close, trust no-one else...
Posts: 93,787
Re: The road to freedom
No freedom for Queensland. Locked up tighter than ever......
- On 25 August 2021, the Premier announced an immediate pause on interstate hotspot arrivals. From midday today, no-one will be permitted to enter Queensland and enter hotel quarantine for a period of two weeks except for those with exemptions including for compassionate reasons. This includes returning Queensland residents.
#99
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Thread Starter
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The road to freedom
No freedom for Queensland. Locked up tighter than ever......
- On 25 August 2021, the Premier announced an immediate pause on interstate hotspot arrivals. From midday today, no-one will be permitted to enter Queensland and enter hotel quarantine for a period of two weeks except for those with exemptions including for compassionate reasons. This includes returning Queensland residents.
#100
Home and Happy
Joined: Dec 2002
Location: Keep true friends and puppets close, trust no-one else...
Posts: 93,787
Re: The road to freedom
There are, loads of them, but only 22 are in use as quarantine hotels, and the government are refusing to sign up any more. The 22 are full, to the point where people are kept waiting on buses while their rooms are cleaned after the release of the previous batch of prisoners.
#101
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 702
Re: The road to freedom
"Have we misunderstood the Doherty model?"
Quite sobering, but well worth a listen (first 10 minutes of the overall podcast).
ScoMo from Marketing appears to have misunderstood--and misportrayed--the implications of the modelling that he is pinning his Covid-19 recovery strategy on.
Quite sobering, but well worth a listen (first 10 minutes of the overall podcast).
ScoMo from Marketing appears to have misunderstood--and misportrayed--the implications of the modelling that he is pinning his Covid-19 recovery strategy on.
Last edited by abner; Aug 25th 2021 at 7:29 pm.
#102
Forum Regular
Joined: Dec 2018
Location: ACT
Posts: 238
Re: The road to freedom
Jagged a Pfizer jab this morning and a booking for the second in 3 weeks even though I’m not eligible (over 60). It’s who you know, not what you know…
#103
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Thread Starter
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The road to freedom
Good luck. Pfizer is turning out to be a dud. 5 months worth of protection best. Wish I had a choice at the time. Would have had AZ. Much longer protection.
#104
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Thread Starter
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: The road to freedom
"Have we misunderstood the Doherty model?"
Quite sobering, but well worth a listen (first 10 minutes of the overall podcast).
ScoMo from Marketing appears to have misunderstood--and misportrayed--the implications of the modelling that he is pinning his Covid-19 recovery strategy on.
Quite sobering, but well worth a listen (first 10 minutes of the overall podcast).
ScoMo from Marketing appears to have misunderstood--and misportrayed--the implications of the modelling that he is pinning his Covid-19 recovery strategy on.
#105
Forum Regular
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 58
Re: The road to freedom
However, you are still protected against severe disease/hospitalisation when vaccinated. They reckon, they will need booster shots for the elderly after about 8 months - this is what Germany is planning - but the younger/healthy ones will be fine. As long as Covid is circulating in the community, the immune system of vaccinated people will get natural boosters (as most of them will have no or little symptoms when infected). Then, there is the option of "mix and match" vaccines to increase effectiveness (some countries are recommending this already). And one day, the 2nd generation of vaccines will likely be more effective against the Delta variant as well.
I know 2 people here who recently caught Covid (Delta variant) despite being vaccinated - one person had Pfizer (in January), the other one AZ (2nd jab in May/June). The AZ guy had underlying issues (COPD, lung cancer) so Covid could have been a death sentence for him. Instead, he spent a week at home in bed, feeling crook but didn't need to be admitted to hospital. Exactly what the vaccines are supposed to do.
Last edited by physiogirl76; Aug 26th 2021 at 10:26 am.