Sherpa

its good to be optomistic but if unemployment reaches 15% then take alook at the landscape

ABCDiamond

Those were the actual selling prices for the area.

The average asking price for that particular area was $948,894 -7.6%

Tooterelli

Catch a falling knife

Florida's Luxury Home Market Shows Signs of Wear
The surprisingly healthy market for oceanfront mansions and palatial condos in Florida, one of the most toxic states in America's housing meltdown, may finally be showing some cracks.

While many luxury properties are selling briskly thanks to Europeans and Canadians pouring their strong currencies into Florida, billionaire Donald Trump recently dropped the price on a Palm Beach mansion by 20 percent, and some market watchers say the U.S. housing woes have finally touched the wealthy.

At a recent luxury property auction in Fort Lauderdale, the auctioneer took home after home off the block within moments after opening the bidding when nobody made an offer.

On one highrise condo in the Miami enclave of Williams Island, a 3,100 square foot penthouse previously listed at $5.6 million, he opened bidding at $5 million, lowered his price to $3.5 million, $3 million, $2.5 million, and then closed the auction, all within a minute.

"There's just not that much enthusiasm or activity in the luxury market," said Jack Winston, a real estate analyst with Goodkin Consulting in Miami.

After the local real estate market peaked two years ago, local brokers said high-end real estate was the only thing propping up the condo market in Miami, one of the most overbuilt and overpriced in the United States.

Sales figures from the Florida Association of Realtors supported that notion.

The median price of Miami condos gained 6 percent last year while price declines of 25 percent or more were seen elsewhere in the state amid the U.S. mortgage crisis, soaring property taxes and hurricane insurance woes.

Miami's vast Atlantic Ocean and Biscayne Bay shoreline offers thousands of water-view properties that have held their value better than cheaper houses and condos inland, where the foreclosure crisis has battered homeowners.

The Miami condo market finally had a bad month in December, when the median price fell 10 percent.

Auctioneers sold "north of 20" of the 50-plus properties on sale at the Fort Lauderdale auction, said SKY Sotheby's president, Chad Roffers. The event offered up an estimated $300 million in properties ranging from a $2.45 million, one-bedroom on ritzy Fisher Island, to mansions in the $15 million range.

"The high end is resilient," Roffers said. "Certainly the market has corrected since the peak of 2005. What we are seeing is that quality waterfront inventory is holding value."

But many properties were quickly pulled from the auction when no one bid. And bargain hunters had an open field.

One man, in short order, snapped up two bayfront houses in Miami Beach's pricey Venetian Islands, one for $500,000 and the other for $1 million. The homes sold for $2.75 million and $2 million respectively in mid-2005, according to county records.

Guido Teichner, a would-be buyer who said he attended the auction looking to make a killing, put in a $500,000 bid on a two-story, 4,000 square foot penthouse condo in downtown Fort Lauderdale that had previously been listed at $3 million.

"At that price I'd be thrilled. That would be a killing," he said of the bid, which was accepted at auction but still awaited seller approval because it was below the minimum bid.

"Fifty cents on the dollar is not good enough in this market," he said. "I don't think we've hit bottom yet so you've got to get a real steal to allow for a little remaining downside."

There were signs of both strength and weakness in Florida's luxury market.

In Palm Beach, one of the priciest postal codes in the United States, the average price of a single-family home climbed to $5.11 million in 2007, up $618,000, according to The Evans Report, a closely watched monitor of the town's market.

An oceanfront estate owned by philanthropist Sidney Kimmel sold this month for $81.5 million, the full asking price, broker Dana Koch of Corcoran Group said. He would not reveal the buyer, but a local newspaper identified him as John Thornton, former president of Goldman Sachs.

"We had a lot of people through the house. Sports team owners, athletes, captains of industry, a Saudi prince," Koch said. "It might be the highest sale of a single-family home on the east coast.

Trump's Palm Beach mansion could top that, if he gets his price for the 6 acre property, which includes 82,000 square feet of buildings and 475 feet of Atlantic Ocean front.

He dropped the asking price by $25 million after two years on the market, but still wants $100 million for a home he bought for $43.3 million four years ago.

Another property, Canyon Ranch Miami Beach, a massive oceanfront condo-hotel, is doing well, just a few months before completion, but its developer, Eric Sheppard, said he would not start another big Miami project in current market conditions.

Sixty-five of 100 units closed in the first six weeks they were on offer, Sheppard, chief executive of WSG Development, said.

"We're thrilled. There's only about 3 percent that just don't have the funds to close, and we've already resold most of those units," he said.

But analyst Winston warns a "disaster" is coming soon, when thousands of new apartments in Miami receive their certificates of occupancy.

"The disaster is really going to start to show its ugly head in the middle to end of this year," he said. "As higher priced units come to closing, we think you will start to see 30 to 40 percent defaults."

ABCDiamond

That was 21 Apr 2008.

The figures I had, showing the 19.8% growth, were Feb 2009.

Tooterelli

http://www.trulia.com/home_prices/Fl...iami-heat_map/

Well I can see lots of negative growth on this website - even although it is a real estate one! Is this where you got your figures from ??

lacey21

There is nothing anyone can do about it so why worry!

You make a decision today that is good for today, what tomorrow brings no one knows

Re-train, thats what I am doing make yourself available for more job opportunities

lace

Good luck to all

Sherpa

Lacey could you please elaborate ?

Tooterelli

The one thing we can do is not encourage people to think everything is okay in the housing market and that "property can only go up".

We are in the midst of a global financial tsunami and it's extremely irresponsible of people to encourage anyone to buy into and commit themselves to.

All of us who witnessed the last house price crash know that anyone buying now while property is at the top of near the top is playing a very dangerous game.:curse:

carolinephillips

Well I'm buying- signing contract tomorrow. We want a home for many years not a get rich investment.

Petals

I agree and we don't have a crystal ball to tell us the fuure even though we may intend to stay for the long hau,l circumstances can change and haviing to sell at a loss and still the owe the bank not a nice scenario.

I remember people complaining about the CIV on their rate notices and why should they pay the rate based on it when they could not sell their property for it in the nineties.

Pearl&Wal

Agreed, and this is why I worry for the people who have entered the market over the last 3 years or are thinking of doing so through the improved FHBG.

Rather like in the UK, if unemployment takes hold and interest rates rise (as they surely will when the Banks start to see their cashflows dry up further) they'll be alot of negative equity amongst famillies that have no options but to sell as the cannot finance their mortgage.

The mortgage dereferals still have to be paid and with interest. What if it takes longer than 12 months to find a job that allows you to be able to afford your new, higher mortgage repayments?

ABCDiamond

That is why I said there were plenty of others with 20% to 40% drops. It highlights that there can be differences in an area based on specifics. ie: even when everything seems to be dropping, as in the USA, there can be some areas that go the other way.

And most of us do not know which areas they will be, till they are.

northernlights

Just say, you waited for 6 months and you'd of have a $50K+ less of a mortgage due to falling prices? Wouldn't that be sweet?

northernlights

Timing is everything. I've lost money on property in UK during the 1992 - 1998 period.

carolinephillips

Trouble is, 50k won't make any differenc to the sort of house we can afford as the gap to the better ones is $200k. This house is good for the money as it is livable as it is, just dated in the bathrooms. We might not find another as good. We have about 25% equity in it, though that will be less as the medical bills arise. I just need a place of my own that I can adapt as I want and need. You can't do that in a rental.