British Expats - Oh. Omicron

British Expats (https://britishexpats.com/forum/)

- The Barbie (https://britishexpats.com/forum/barbie-92/)

- - Oh. Omicron (https://britishexpats.com/forum/barbie-92/oh-omicron-941774/)

While we're playing the 'wait and see' game with the latest variant take a look at the tweets of South African Council of Scientific and Industrial Researcher Ridhwaan Suliman

Quote:

Provincial update #COVID19 in South Africa:
• All provinces reporting an increase in cases now; GP still of most concern followed by WC
• Case incidence up to 12 new cases per 100k in GP, still below 2 in rest
• New hospital admissions in GP doubling every week https://twitter.com/rid1tweets

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8ab3e1594.jpeg
and keep an eye on statements made by the like of people such as Rudo Mathiva:

Quote:

“We’re seeing a marked change in the demographic profile of patients with COVID-19,” Rudo Mathivha, head of the intensive care unit at Soweto’s Baragwanath Hospital, told an online press briefing.

“Young people, in their 20s to just over their late 30s, are coming in with moderate to severe disease, some needing intensive care. About 65% are not vaccinated and most of the rest are only half-vaccinated,” said Mathivha. “I’m worried that as the numbers go up, the public health care facilities will become overwhelmed.” https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireSt...amble-81417682

Also, we're hearing about people in Australia and Israel who are double vaxxed, and previously infected, that have tested positive for the new strain but aren't sick with it.

There is nothing to suggest yet that Omicron is causing death or morbidity in the fully vaccinated. The takeways for me are
1. Get the whole world vaccinated asap. We're not safe until we're all safe.
2. Ensure that booster shots are made available at the correct interval be it 2,3 or 6 months.
3. Carry on with vaccination-plus strategy, i.e. vaccines plus mask wearing, good ventilation and social distancing.
4. Lift or modify the travel bans asap so that medical supplies and reagents can get into southern Africa (see 1).
5. Protect our most vulnerable - older people and immunocompromised.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brisbannite (Post 13076962)

While we're playing the 'wait and see' game with the latest variant take a look at the tweets of South African Council of Scientific and Industrial Researcher Ridhwaan Suliman

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8ab3e1594.jpeg
and keep an eye on statements made by the like of people such as Rudo Mathiva:

Also, we're hearing about people in Australia and Israel who are double vaxxed, and previously infected, that have tested positive for the new strain but aren't sick with it.

There is nothing to suggest yet that Omicron is causing death or morbidity in the fully vaccinated. The takeways for me are
1. Get the whole world vaccinated asap. We're not safe until we're all safe.
2. Ensure that booster shots are made available at the correct interval be it 2,3 or 6 months.
3. Carry on with vaccination-plus strategy, i.e. vaccines plus mask wearing, good ventilation and social distancing.
4. Lift or modify the travel bans asap so that medical supplies and reagents can get into southern Africa (see 1).
5. Protect our most vulnerable - older people and immunocompromised.

6. Let it rip and become the dominant strain, reports are symptoms are vastly different to Delta and less likely to do as much harm.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brisbannite (Post 13076962)

While we're playing the 'wait and see' game with the latest variant take a look at the tweets of South African Council of Scientific and Industrial Researcher Ridhwaan Suliman

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/british...8ab3e1594.jpeg
and keep an eye on statements made by the like of people such as Rudo Mathiva:

Also, we're hearing about people in Australia and Israel who are double vaxxed, and previously infected, that have tested positive for the new strain but aren't sick with it.

There is nothing to suggest yet that Omicron is causing death or morbidity in the fully vaccinated. The takeways for me are
1. Get the whole world vaccinated asap. We're not safe until we're all safe.
2. Ensure that booster shots are made available at the correct interval be it 2,3 or 6 months.
3. Carry on with vaccination-plus strategy, i.e. vaccines plus mask wearing, good ventilation and social distancing.
4. Lift or modify the travel bans asap so that medical supplies and reagents can get into southern Africa (see 1).
5. Protect our most vulnerable - older people and immunocompromised.

From 04:00 GMT, people arriving in the UK from abroad will have to take a PCR test and isolate until they get a negative result, and face coverings have become mandatory again on public transport and in shops in England. The government is going to review the changes again in three weeks. The Health Sec said

Quote:

"If it emerges that this variant is no more dangerous than the Delta variant, then we won't keep measures in place for a day longer than necessary.

"Our experience of fighting this virus has shown us it's best to act decisively and swiftly when we see a potential threat. Which is why we're building our defences and putting these measures in place without delay." https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59470344

After all the navel gazing, grandstanding and sucking of teeth that went on when covid first arrived in the UK its fabulous to see the UK government taking action so quickly, rather than adopting a 'wait and see' approach. I guess 145,000 covid fatalities sharpened the resolve somewhat.

Good and bad news about Omicron

Good

Three vaccine doses is as effective against Omicron as it is against Delta for serious illness and preventing infection. Any decrease in protection is probably within the margin of error at this stage

Bad

The risk of not recovering from Omicron is twice as high as Delta
The rate of infection is very high: 1.3 times greater than Delta. It is more transmissible
The severity of the illness in the unvaccinated* is 2.4 times worse than the original strain

* Unvaccinated also includes those who've only had 2 shots and who are eligible for a booster but haven't received it

Quote:

First publication - Preliminary data: The vaccine protects highly effectively against the new varient https://www.mako.co.il/news-lifestyl...fe17d71027.htm

Re: Good and bad news about Omicron

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brisbannite (Post 13077351)

Good

Three vaccine doses is as effective against Omicron as it is against Delta for serious illness and preventing infection. Any decrease in protection is probably within the margin of error at this stage

Bad

The risk of not recovering from Omicron is twice as high as Delta
The rate of infection is very high: 1.3 times greater than Delta. It is more transmissible
The severity of the illness in the unvaccinated* is 2.4 times worse than the original strain

* Unvaccinated also includes those who've only had 2 shots and who are eligible for a booster but haven't received it

It doesn't seem reasonable what you are listing as Good and Bad tbh. I thought it was said it would take at least two weeks to find out the particulars on the OMICRON varient?

Re: Good and bad news about Omicron

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brisbannite (Post 13077351)

Good

Three vaccine doses is as effective against Omicron as it is against Delta for serious illness and preventing infection. Any decrease in protection is probably within the margin of error at this stage

Bad

The risk of not recovering from Omicron is twice as high as Delta
The rate of infection is very high: 1.3 times greater than Delta. It is more transmissible
The severity of the illness in the unvaccinated* is 2.4 times worse than the original strain

* Unvaccinated also includes those who've only had 2 shots and who are eligible for a booster but haven't received it

It doesn't seem reasonable what you are listing as Good and Bad tbh. I thought it was said it would take at least two weeks to find out the particulars on the OMICRON varient?

Re: Good and bad news about Omicron

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nand (Post 13077599)

It doesn't seem reasonable what you are listing as Good and Bad tbh. I thought it was said it would take at least two weeks to find out the particulars on the OMICRON varient?

No matter what logic you present, which you did, there will be some who thrive on the drama, and the easiest way to get drama is through negativity. Negativity manifests itself in left wingers (whingers) and logical solutions are often ignored as it doesn't suit the agenda

Re: Good and bad news about Omicron

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nand (Post 13077599)

It doesn't seem reasonable what you are listing as Good and Bad tbh. I thought it was said it would take at least two weeks to find out the particulars on the OMICRON varient?

I always try to cite my sources of information but unless you can read Hebrew you'll have to use Google translate for the source I used for the 'good and bad data' post. Of course there's the caveat that it's a first publication, as stated in the link.

The two week time frame was initially suggested by some of the pharmaceutical companies but the WHO are saying they're getting data already:

Quote:

The World Health Organization expects to have more information on the transmissibility of the new Omicron variant of the coronavirus within days, its technical lead on COVID-19, Maria van Kerkhove, said in a briefing on Wednesday.

That was faster than the "weeks" the WHO had predicted last week that it would take to assess the data available on the variant after designating it a "variant of concern", its highest rating.....

Vaccine developers have said it will take about two weeks to assess whether their shots are effective against it.

WHO expects to have more information on Omicron transmission 'within days' | Reuters

However, I think there's a problem with the quality of the data coming out of S Africa. Not all cases are sequenced due to a lack of resources, so there's an assumption being made that the new variant is responsible for most of the present cases.

Quote:

South Africa conducts genome sequencing on only a small proportion of total samples collected each week. The NICD did not give a total number of confirmed cases of Omicron infection. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa...te-2021-12-01/

There's also some data about infants and older people being admitted to hospital but that's being confounded by influenza infections and not all cases getting tested.

Quote:

The data, released by South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), shows that 52 infants under age 2 were among 452 COVID-19 patients admitted in Tshwane - the metropolitan area that includes the capital Pretoria - in the period between Nov. 14 and 28, a higher number than for any other age group.

However, taking into account the size of the populations of the various age groups, the risk of admission was higher for people over age 60.....

HAVE THE ADMISSIONS BEEN LINKED TO OMICRON?
No. Only a small percentage of positive test samples in South Africa are being submitted for genomic sequencing to detect the variant due to limited capacity. That means we cannot know for sure whether the infants in hospital were infected with Omicron, NICD scientists have said.

There is also uncertainty about whether all of the infants included in the data are infected with COVID-19, as not all are tested for the virus, scientists said.....The province of Gauteng, where Tshwane is located, has experienced an increase in flu cases in the past month.

"We need to be really careful to look at the other respiratory infections and diseases to work out why were children being admitted. Were they being tested as they were being admitted or was it precautionary?" said von Gottberg.
https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...ts-2021-12-01/

These variations can only arise in unvaccinated populations, so the sooner we get everyone fully vaccinated the sooner everything will return to normal.

Nand, you can follow the WHO's technical lead on Twitter or look for tweets about her briefings:

Quote:

Quick update on #COVID19 Omicron variant by
@WHO's
@mvankerkhove

https://twitter.com/mrigankshail/sta...72879427117057

Omicron … Omigod … yeh, it all sounds very scary at first reading but what … actuallly … is the mortality rate?

In other words … apart from the media hype …. is anyone actually dying from this?

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeadVim (Post 13078469)

I think I read somewhere this morning no one yet.

The Loony Project actually had the voice of reason on the show. Have they lost the plot? The good Prof will never provide the drama The Project craves

https://www.news.com.au/entertainmen...b46cd3f1b4151e

A person in England died from it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nand (Post 13081110)

A person in England died from it.

Died WITH it.