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How long before you buy your first Electric Vehicle.

How long before you buy your first Electric Vehicle.

Old Jul 26th 2018, 6:42 am
  #31  
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Default Re: How long before you buy your first Electric Vehicle.

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
Probably, but there will always be a niche for owners. Look at the mobile phone market, a mixture of subscription and non-subscription (although in both cases the device is owned).
I can see some owners (reps for one), but don't underestimate the desire of the motor industry for a regular subscription turnover, coupled with how much more the can make doing robotaxi than selling outright. First the 2nd cars will go. Then the young (insurance costs) and the old (senility). In the end the cars that are owned are most likely to end up being drivers cars, driven for fun at the weekends, and the high mileage.
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Old Jul 26th 2018, 9:00 am
  #32  
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Default Re: How long before you buy your first Electric Vehicle.

Jaguar have launched their first all electric vehicle.
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Old Jul 26th 2018, 8:36 pm
  #33  
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Default Re: How long before you buy your first Electric Vehicle.

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
I can see some owners (reps for one), but don't underestimate the desire of the motor industry for a regular subscription turnover, coupled with how much more the can make doing robotaxi than selling outright. First the 2nd cars will go. Then the young (insurance costs) and the old (senility). In the end the cars that are owned are most likely to end up being drivers cars, driven for fun at the weekends, and the high mileage.
Topical !

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Old Jul 27th 2018, 1:33 am
  #34  
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Default Re: How long before you buy your first Electric Vehicle.

It's interesting to look at the cost on those. US$400-600pm for a typical car, or AU$540-813pm.

Compare that to the average cost of running a car of ~$800pm

Now imagine that instead of having a second car you had a robotaxi that you averaged paying AU$5 pd, AU$150pm (not used some days, local journeys, etc). Less than a quarter the price.

For the robotaxi company, let's say they cleared 20 such hires per day at $10 per hire, every day. That's $200 pd, $73k per year, $219k for a three year vehicle life. Sure they would have costs on that, electricity (few dollars per day), maintenance (but as we've covered, that's low), cleaning (minimum wage, probably scope to automate), insurance, etc. - but you get much more profit than just selling the new vehicle AND you can still flog it off at the end of it's life.
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Old Jul 27th 2018, 3:34 am
  #35  
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Default Re: How long before you buy your first Electric Vehicle.

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
It's interesting to look at the cost on those. US$400-600pm for a typical car, or AU$540-813pm.
My car runs on $150pm ...... anyhow lets proceed with the theory

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post

Compare that to the average cost of running a car of ~$800pm

Now imagine that instead of having a second car you had a robotaxi that you averaged paying AU$5 pd, AU$150pm (not used some days, local journeys, etc). Less than a quarter the price.
I am imagining that, but where did you come up with those figures?

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
For the robotaxi company, let's say they cleared 20 such hires per day at $10 per hire, every day. That's $200 pd, $73k per year, $219k for a three year vehicle life. Sure they would have costs on that, electricity (few dollars per day), maintenance (but as we've covered, that's low), cleaning (minimum wage, probably scope to automate), insurance, etc. - but you get much more profit than just selling the new vehicle AND you can still flog it off at the end of it's life.
There may also be some type of licenses to pay for being a Robotaxi - I bet that won't be cheap. Tax - always is. Storage in off peak times - councils will cream them to park on street.

I think your $5 per day isn't going to work for the Robotaxi company. More likely triple that taking the cost to $450pm for the user. Still, that price will work for some however not the mainstream.
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Old Jul 27th 2018, 4:39 am
  #36  
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Default Re: How long before you buy your first Electric Vehicle.

Meanwhile down the budget end of the Electric Car Market. They've sold E Bikes here so it's a possible starter. I'm guessing around 15K Aud landed. Doubtful but you never know.

https://www.startengine.com/sondors-electric-car

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Old Jul 27th 2018, 4:43 am
  #37  
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Default Re: How long before you buy your first Electric Vehicle.

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
My car runs on $150pm ...... anyhow lets proceed with the theory
Those subscription numbers come from the video itself

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
I am imagining that, but where did you come up with those figures?
They are the quoted costs for running a car if you look around. Don't forget there's fuel, maintenance, road tax, insurance, and in particular the finance cost of the car. Even if you own from an outright payment and are running into the ground, there's the cost of the interest forgone, plus the depreciation, etc. that you need to take into account.

https://www.racv.com.au/membership/m...ing-costs.html

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
There may also be some type of licenses to pay for being a Robotaxi - I bet that won't be cheap. Tax - always is. Storage in off peak times - councils will cream them to park on street.
We'll see what the government tries to sting them, They will have a problem with taxation that will tend to push them towards road pricing. How there are also some big wins on automation for making CBDs more tractable etc.

And I expect 'storage' will be open fields on the outskirts, same as other taxis.

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
I think your $5 per day isn't going to work for the Robotaxi company. More likely triple that taking the cost to $450pm for the user. Still, that price will work for some however not the mainstream.
I just showed you how even just earning $200pd from each robotaxi is still an earning proposition for them. We're talking likely less than 20% of the costs of running a taxi today.

Here's someone else doing the same type of calculations if you don't believe me. It think he's missed a few things, but still ... https://perspicacity.xyz/2017/06/07/...our-chauffeur/

We'll see how much they try and chance it on high margins, but it's in their interest to move people to the subscription model, so I doubt they will be daft enough to overprice for long.
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Old Jul 27th 2018, 4:49 am
  #38  
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Default Re: How long before you buy your first Electric Vehicle.

I reckon we are 5 years away from the great general public definitely considering electric cars as their first preference. Put another way It's 1992 on the net, look what had happened to the net by 2002. I'd say Electric vehicles are going to be taken on board twice as quickly as the net. So that 1992 analogy will be 2018-2023. So by 2023 everyone will be considering electric cars as a potential purchase.

Looks like we are going to witness two major technological revolutions in our lifetimes.
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Old Jul 27th 2018, 3:10 pm
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Default Re: How long before you buy your first Electric Vehicle.

Originally Posted by ozzieeagle View Post
I reckon we are 5 years away from the great general public definitely considering electric cars as their first preference. Put another way It's 1992 on the net, look what had happened to the net by 2002. I'd say Electric vehicles are going to be taken on board twice as quickly as the net. So that 1992 analogy will be 2018-2023. So by 2023 everyone will be considering electric cars as a potential purchase.

Looks like we are going to witness two major technological revolutions in our lifetimes.
Good point. We forget how rapidly major transformations occur. I remember hearing about the new thing called the "world wide web" on a BBC radio program in 1994 and thought, that "sound's like a good idea !"... 2-3 years later, it was everywhere. Also remember quite a few conversations in the late 90's where people (who should have known better) regarded the internet, apart from email, as a bit a gimmick.
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Old Jul 27th 2018, 4:29 pm
  #40  
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Default Re: How long before you buy your first Electric Vehicle.

Originally Posted by Shard View Post
Good point. We forget how rapidly major transformations occur. I remember hearing about the new thing called the "world wide web" on a BBC radio program in 1994 and thought, that "sound's like a good idea !"... 2-3 years later, it was everywhere. Also remember quite a few conversations in the late 90's where people (who should have known better) regarded the internet, apart from email, as a bit a gimmick.
I remember having that conversation with a colleague in early 1993

In 1994 I was in Vietnam. For a while, I travelled with 2 academics from Melbourne who talked about receiving and sending 'email'
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Old Jul 27th 2018, 6:29 pm
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Default Re: How long before you buy your first Electric Vehicle.

I remember Clive James going on about the Information Super Highway in every show he did around the early to mid nineties, it's what first attracted my attention to the net.

Plus there were those @Tandy or @woolworths etc etc ads everywhere on billboards and advertising signs.

I was one of Alphalinks first 1000 customers in Melbourne, which was in 1996.... We used to get the net in 8 hour blocks back then on a 14.4K dial up modem.

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Old Aug 12th 2018, 12:30 pm
  #42  
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Default Re: How long before you buy your first Electric Vehicle.

Originally Posted by Pollyana View Post
Doesn't affect me as I don't drive, but I work for a large government department Outdoor car park of maybe 100 spaces, always full, mostly with government cars that never move. At least 50% of staff park in the surrounding streets and many of them drive 1.5-2 hours to work.
Its the government. They aren't going to give us free electric to recharge cars (nor would I expect them to).
So I'm vaguely interested in- how log would the power stored in one of these cars last for? As no-one will be able to charge a car at our workplace, they will need at least 4 hours of power just to get them to work and home again. Does one of these cars store that much? Many staff are shift workers leaving at unusual hours - is the idea that they have to stop in some garage somewhere for an hour or so at 2am while the car recharges?
Hi Polly!

I've been researching EVs for years - trying to persuade 'er upstairs to allow a Tesla - but your point about storage time is well put. The ones with 300m plus range can be charged to 80% in less than an hour at a "super"charger. But they do have a "vampire" discharge when unused - the battery needs to be kept at a usable temperature and the computer runs for updates etc so leaving one at the airport for a month wouldn't be a great idea!

The one I test drove in the US last year wasn't the "ludicrous" model but you do need to warn the passengers about the acceleration before you floor it - your ears feel as if they are pulling your face round the back!

Elon Musk has his fans and detractors but he's dedicated to getting renewables up and running - so much so that much of the battery technology that he's developed has been made freely available sans-patent.
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Old Aug 12th 2018, 12:39 pm
  #43  
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Default Re: How long before you buy your first Electric Vehicle.

Originally Posted by Amazulu View Post
She got cagey and said that the range would be reduced but didn't know by how much. There's the problem. These theoretical ranges are fine on a cool day on flat roads with minimal stops and starts but when you start throwing in hills, headlights, hot and cold weather, wind, city driving etc, range gets smashed. I'm of the opinion that EVs are fine for a daily commute (say out to 150kms return) and a charge overnight at home, but anything beyond that is at least 10 years away
Tesla say the range is not that much reduced by AC and heating, and although I find their figures difficult to believe it remains a fact that as a company the worst thing that could happen is for the public to constantly see EVs stranded by the roadside because they've run out of grunt so I reckon they have got a handle on it.

They have had issues with drive chain failures which probably are not unconnected with owners demonstrating the acceleration over and over again!
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Old Aug 12th 2018, 12:45 pm
  #44  
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Default Re: How long before you buy your first Electric Vehicle.

Originally Posted by Amazulu View Post
​​​​​​Maybe but don't underestimate the desire of people to want to own stuff - it's deeply ingrained into our DNA

I will always own a car
It's not so much that as the fact we have come to expect reliable, instant personal transport. Our lives depend on it, and a large proportion of the population now live where it is a necessity.

Public transport isn't that efficient - outside rush hours most buses are almost empty and in any case don't run 24/7. Taxis can be difficult. Shared cars - well, who wants to find it not available when wanted, or vomit and worse on the seat?
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Old Aug 12th 2018, 12:47 pm
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Default Re: How long before you buy your first Electric Vehicle.

Originally Posted by mikelincs View Post
Jaguar have launched their first all electric vehicle.
trical
Saw one at Changi the other day: not impressive. Then there's Jag's history of electrics......<g>
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