Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului
#121
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Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului
Thanks for the updates, Pol. We have offices in the Pacific Islands so I keep an eye on things; the Islanders are already suffering http://www.fijitimes.com/story.aspx?id=142263
#122
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Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului
Still heading in a W N/W direction but is expected to head W S/W in the next day or two, but who knows.
Making preperations to move out it continues to keep this track. Better get contents insurance today
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohe...s/shirgms.html
Making preperations to move out it continues to keep this track. Better get contents insurance today
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohe...s/shirgms.html
#123
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Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului
Looks like GFS are prediciting a direct hit for Mackay!
#124
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Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului
Our offices in Fiji and the Solomons are closed and there are curfews in place.
#125
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Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului
bom has it in the next 12 to 24hrs turning in a southerly direction, so fingers crossed it will track down the coast and not make landfall, but still to early to say.
#126
Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului
The BOM were completely wrong with almost every prediction they made about Stiff Breeze Olga, so I wouldn't bank on them being right about this. Still, I'd be quite happy to see it stay at sea, we're opening with Habeas Corpus on Friday night, and the last thing we need is a cat 5 Cyclone in the ear.
#127
Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului
Ignorant Q perhaps, but how far inland do these things generally go?
I understand that they form over warm water but disipate over land. Just wondering how far inland to have plan B should it head our way?
And yes I know there are lots of variables concerning if and when and direction etc just wondering...... I am due to fly Sun night and Mon am and am leaving OH & kids & visiting inlaws here so bit worried on more than one front.
I understand that they form over warm water but disipate over land. Just wondering how far inland to have plan B should it head our way?
And yes I know there are lots of variables concerning if and when and direction etc just wondering...... I am due to fly Sun night and Mon am and am leaving OH & kids & visiting inlaws here so bit worried on more than one front.
#128
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Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului
Possibly worth keeping a good eye on this one in the next few days, as each forecast map is different, this on has it crossing close to cairns
http://www.4tfingers.biz/tides/tc_plot.php
Current forecast landfall location:
GFS – Shoalwater Bay
ECMWF – Koumala
NOGAPS – Mackay
JTWC – Clairview
CMC – Approaching the Whitsundays
http://www.4tfingers.biz/tides/tc_plot.php
Current forecast landfall location:
GFS – Shoalwater Bay
ECMWF – Koumala
NOGAPS – Mackay
JTWC – Clairview
CMC – Approaching the Whitsundays
Last edited by rocket01; Mar 16th 2010 at 10:33 am.
#129
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Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului
Possibly worth keeping a good eye on this one in the next few days, as each forecast map is different, this on has it crossing close to cairns
http://www.4tfingers.biz/tides/tc_plot.php
Current forecast landfall location:
GFS – Shoalwater Bay
ECMWF – Koumala
NOGAPS – Mackay
JTWC – Clairview
CMC – Approaching the Whitsundays
http://www.4tfingers.biz/tides/tc_plot.php
Current forecast landfall location:
GFS – Shoalwater Bay
ECMWF – Koumala
NOGAPS – Mackay
JTWC – Clairview
CMC – Approaching the Whitsundays
#130
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Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului
Ignorant Q perhaps, but how far inland do these things generally go?
I understand that they form over warm water but disipate over land. Just wondering how far inland to have plan B should it head our way?
And yes I know there are lots of variables concerning if and when and direction etc just wondering...... I am due to fly Sun night and Mon am and am leaving OH & kids & visiting inlaws here so bit worried on more than one front.
I understand that they form over warm water but disipate over land. Just wondering how far inland to have plan B should it head our way?
And yes I know there are lots of variables concerning if and when and direction etc just wondering...... I am due to fly Sun night and Mon am and am leaving OH & kids & visiting inlaws here so bit worried on more than one front.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/c20thc/cyclone.shtml
#131
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Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului
Ignorant Q perhaps, but how far inland do these things generally go?
I understand that they form over warm water but disipate over land. Just wondering how far inland to have plan B should it head our way?
And yes I know there are lots of variables concerning if and when and direction etc just wondering...... I am due to fly Sun night and Mon am and am leaving OH & kids & visiting inlaws here so bit worried on more than one front.
I understand that they form over warm water but disipate over land. Just wondering how far inland to have plan B should it head our way?
And yes I know there are lots of variables concerning if and when and direction etc just wondering...... I am due to fly Sun night and Mon am and am leaving OH & kids & visiting inlaws here so bit worried on more than one front.
They can basically go all the way into the centre of Australia...just depends on the weather. Take a look at the track map for the 1956 cyclone.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/c20thc/cyclone.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/c20thc/cyclone.shtml
As for Ului, I wouldn't like to take a punt at the moment on where it will end up - still too many other factors involved, and all the models have different ideas still........
#132
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Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului
The BOM were completely wrong with almost every prediction they made about Stiff Breeze Olga, so I wouldn't bank on them being right about this. Still, I'd be quite happy to see it stay at sea, we're opening with Habeas Corpus on Friday night, and the last thing we need is a cat 5 Cyclone in the ear.
(that should ensure the safety of Mackay anyhow!)
#133
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Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 10:53pm EST on Tuesday the 16th of March 2010
At 10 pm EST Tuesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului [Category 4] with central
pressure 938 hPa was located over the north-east Coral Sea near latitude 13.5 south longitude 157.8 east, which is about 1250 km northeast of Mackay and 1370 km east of Cooktown.
The cyclone is near stationary.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului poses no direct threat to the Queensland coast and is expected to remain well offshore over the eastern Coral Sea for at least the next few days.
It is expected to adopt a more south to southeasterly track during the next 24 hours, which it should maintain until later in the week. The most likely scenario then is for Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului to turn onto a more west to southwesterly track and move closer to the Queensland coast during Friday and Saturday.
Issued at 10:53pm EST on Tuesday the 16th of March 2010
At 10 pm EST Tuesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului [Category 4] with central
pressure 938 hPa was located over the north-east Coral Sea near latitude 13.5 south longitude 157.8 east, which is about 1250 km northeast of Mackay and 1370 km east of Cooktown.
The cyclone is near stationary.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului poses no direct threat to the Queensland coast and is expected to remain well offshore over the eastern Coral Sea for at least the next few days.
It is expected to adopt a more south to southeasterly track during the next 24 hours, which it should maintain until later in the week. The most likely scenario then is for Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului to turn onto a more west to southwesterly track and move closer to the Queensland coast during Friday and Saturday.
#134
Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului
The guy leading the trip First Born is due to go on has decided to postpone the trip. He's done the trip for the last 4 years, one of which was post cyclone and just doesn't think it's worth going. Week two of Term two now so fingers crossed it's all good then.
#135
Re: Cyclone Season......Queensland - TC Ului
I'm going to stick my neck out with a purely personal forecast just based on gut instinct and spooky memories (and definitely not official at all!) - I reckon we are looking at a coastal crossing in Mackay, 7.30am March 20th.
(that should ensure the safety of Mackay anyhow!)
(that should ensure the safety of Mackay anyhow!)