Pollyana

Thats terrible. The islands get hit so hard because they are so low and the winds just sweep over them. Very sobering watching satellite maps changing overnight and knowing there are little communities underneath the cloud mass.

rocket01

Still heading in a W N/W direction but is expected to head W S/W in the next day or two, but who knows.
Making preperations to move out it continues to keep this track. Better get contents insurance today

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohe...s/shirgms.html

Steve1977

Looks like GFS are prediciting a direct hit for Mackay!

Kooky.

Yeah, it's easy to forget about them but I know a lot of people have no links there so it's understandable. The sad thing is that these island nations are ill-equipped to cope and are already suffering from extreme climates and rising tides.

Our offices in Fiji and the Solomons are closed and there are curfews in place.

rocket01

bom has it in the next 12 to 24hrs turning in a southerly direction, so fingers crossed it will track down the coast and not make landfall, but still to early to say.

Burbage

The BOM were completely wrong with almost every prediction they made about Stiff Breeze Olga, so I wouldn't bank on them being right about this. Still, I'd be quite happy to see it stay at sea, we're opening with Habeas Corpus on Friday night, and the last thing we need is a cat 5 Cyclone in the ear.

Safin

Ignorant Q perhaps, but how far inland do these things generally go?

I understand that they form over warm water but disipate over land. Just wondering how far inland to have plan B should it head our way?

And yes I know there are lots of variables concerning if and when and direction etc just wondering...... I am due to fly Sun night and Mon am and am leaving OH & kids & visiting inlaws here so bit worried on more than one front.

rocket01

Possibly worth keeping a good eye on this one in the next few days, as each forecast map is different, this on has it crossing close to cairns

http://www.4tfingers.biz/tides/tc_plot.php

Current forecast landfall location:

GFS – Shoalwater Bay
ECMWF – Koumala
NOGAPS – Mackay
JTWC – Clairview
CMC – Approaching the Whitsundays

wanderingwombat

Yep, looks like QLD then....

asprilla

They can basically go all the way into the centre of Australia...just depends on the weather. Take a look at the track map for the 1956 cyclone.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/c20thc/cyclone.shtml

Pollyana

The start of the recent floods through western Qld came as a result of TC Olga, followed by a tropical low coming down from Darwin across the interior. Also last years floods, which lasted for several months, were fueled by TC Charlotte and Ellie.

As for Ului, I wouldn't like to take a punt at the moment on where it will end up - still too many other factors involved, and all the models have different ideas still........

Pollyana

I'm going to stick my neck out with a purely personal forecast just based on gut instinct and spooky memories (and definitely not official at all!) - I reckon we are looking at a coastal crossing in Mackay, 7.30am March 20th.



(that should ensure the safety of Mackay anyhow!)

Pollyana

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 10:53pm EST on Tuesday the 16th of March 2010

At 10 pm EST Tuesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului [Category 4] with central
pressure 938 hPa was located over the north-east Coral Sea near latitude 13.5 south longitude 157.8 east, which is about 1250 km northeast of Mackay and 1370 km east of Cooktown.

The cyclone is near stationary.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului poses no direct threat to the Queensland coast and is expected to remain well offshore over the eastern Coral Sea for at least the next few days.

It is expected to adopt a more south to southeasterly track during the next 24 hours, which it should maintain until later in the week. The most likely scenario then is for Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului to turn onto a more west to southwesterly track and move closer to the Queensland coast during Friday and Saturday.

moneypenny20

The guy leading the trip First Born is due to go on has decided to postpone the trip. He's done the trip for the last 4 years, one of which was post cyclone and just doesn't think it's worth going. Week two of Term two now so fingers crossed it's all good then.

Burbage

Dammit, predict a crossing at Gordonvale. I need this one to miss us!