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Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Old Apr 7th 2020, 6:36 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by carcajou
Luthien, thank you for these daily charts. I find them quite useful and informative.
You are very welcome . I look for them each day. A concise summary.
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Old Apr 7th 2020, 9:32 pm
  #362  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by carcajou
Luthien, thank you for these daily charts. I find them quite useful and informative.
Agree completely - they're a really useful summary of how we're all travelling.
I look forward to them.
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Old Apr 8th 2020, 12:43 am
  #363  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by Beoz
The mortality rate is more likely less than 0.5% in Australia including the undetected/asymptomatic cases

All it takes is one infection and we start to multiply and I don't think Australia has the stomach for a 2 month NZ style lock down and we don't even know if the NZ style lock down is effective or offers any benefit to the lock down Australia currently has.
People love to wonder that there are large numbers of hidden, asymptomatic, cases out there, meaning that the real mortality rate is lower if they were taken into account.

The problem with that is that if it were the cases they would in turn be creating even more decidedly unhidden and visible symptomatic cases as they moved around - which would show up. However they don't. So although there might be one or two, there aren't enough to shift the mortality figures.

We don't get out from this with less than 1% mortality, and more likely 2-3% even if everything goes right. It it doesn't go right then it's much higher - look at Italy.

As for Australia not having the stomach for going hard - i'd say what they won't have the stomach for is this level of lockdown going on for months and months. Particularly if it's just a few new cases a day. People will not keep this up long term. Just watch what happens round Easter.

NZ have it right - eliminate the new cases down to zero, then you can relax the regulations excepting the borders and have a functioning economy till the vaccine gets here. And if you are down to very few new cases, you are in a good position to clamp down on them and kill off the clusters. Many Oz states are actually in a better position than NZ to do it, anything less than 10 new cases per day and zero new cases is within reach - and that accounts for 5 Oz states at the moment.
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Old Apr 8th 2020, 1:04 am
  #364  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by Luthien

From Angus: Aus still below 2% and Sweden now included to see how their experiment plays out. And adding a link for those who want to know what Sweden is doing.
ABCNEWS -coronavirus-sweden-adopting-more-flexible-approach

I read in the New York Times that only people who die of Covid 19 in hospital in New York are being counted but nearly as many are dying of it at home. Awful.
Sweden - another where the artificial mortality rate is a true indication of their lack of testing. Very dangerous for a country not in full lockdown.
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Old Apr 8th 2020, 1:31 am
  #365  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by GarryP
People love to wonder that there are large numbers of hidden, asymptomatic, cases out there, meaning that the real mortality rate is lower if they were taken into account.
Its not a wonder its a fact. For example, I have just got off a call with a colleague in Madrid who is coming to the other side of his infection. He has not been tested, can't get tested, if you turn up at the hospital for a test, unless you are going into ICU, its a no test for the standard sufferer. His wife was infected, all the neighbours in the apartment building, no tests. All these people aren't recorded in the stats

Same for Italy.

Originally Posted by GarryP
The problem with that is that if it were the cases they would in turn be creating even more decidedly unhidden and visible symptomatic cases as they moved around - which would show up. However they don't. So although there might be one or two, there aren't enough to shift the mortality figures.
And that's exactly what happen in Italy and in Spain, they moved around, they passed it on, then it showed up, then they had lockdown. It didn't stop Armageddon for the next few weeks - incubate, then explode.

Originally Posted by GarryP
We don't get out from this with less than 1% mortality, and more likely 2-3% even if everything goes right. It it doesn't go right then it's much higher - look at Italy.
Granted ...... Globally once it hits Africa and their medical infrastructure, it will probably bring the average up to 1 or 2%. But we are talking Australia. I guess it depends on how many more get infected and how many more die.

Originally Posted by GarryP
As for Australia not having the stomach for going hard - i'd say what they won't have the stomach for is this level of lockdown going on for months and months. Particularly if it's just a few new cases a day. People will not keep this up long term. Just watch what happens round Easter.
But if we are on our way to zero then why the need to go hard? Its only going to get less restricted from here should the decline continue.

Maybe there will be an easter explosion, maybe not. I guess we will find out how many of those "People love to wonder that there are large numbers of hidden, asymptomatic" are out there in Australia.

Originally Posted by GarryP
NZ have it right - eliminate the new cases down to zero, then you can relax the regulations excepting the borders and have a functioning economy till the vaccine gets here. And if you are down to very few new cases, you are in a good position to clamp down on them and kill off the clusters. Many Oz states are actually in a better position than NZ to do it, anything less than 10 new cases per day and zero new cases is within reach - and that accounts for 5 Oz states at the moment.
That's where Australia is now, cluster busting, without NZ's hardline stance, and they are well away of getting zero within the 4 week lockdown. Then they have to start up again.
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Old Apr 8th 2020, 1:44 am
  #366  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by Beoz
Granted ...... Globally once it hits Africa and their medical infrastructure, it will probably bring the average up to 1 or 2%. But we are talking Australia. I guess it depends on how many more get infected and how many more die.
Nah, it's way higher than that already. Last I saw it was 3.8% and checking now ...... its 5.75%

As I say, we aren't getting out of this with less than 2-3% mortality here in Australia. Which is why you have to cut the number of cases, and shoot anyone that talks herd immunity.

Originally Posted by Beoz
But if we are on our way to zero then why the need to go hard? Its only going to get less restricted from here should the decline continue.
Because you go hard to get it from the 2% you currently have, to 0%. That means you aggressively go after every new case, every possible cluster, and swamp it. You push for 0% for 2 weeks.

Then you can relax some.


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Old Apr 8th 2020, 1:51 am
  #367  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Things have settled enough in Western Australia, that from tomorrow anyone who is sick with a fever, or has respiratory illness symptoms, can get tested. You don't need to have traveled overseas, been a close contact of someone, be ill at a certain threshold or whatever.
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Old Apr 8th 2020, 3:04 am
  #368  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by GarryP
As for Australia not having the stomach for going hard - i'd say what they won't have the stomach for is this level of lockdown going on for months and months. Particularly if it's just a few new cases a day. People will not keep this up long term. Just watch what happens round Easter.

NZ have it right - eliminate the new cases down to zero, then you can relax the regulations excepting the borders and have a functioning economy till the vaccine gets here. And if you are down to very few new cases, you are in a good position to clamp down on them and kill off the clusters. Many Oz states are actually in a better position than NZ to do it, anything less than 10 new cases per day and zero new cases is within reach - and that accounts for 5 Oz states at the moment.
By 'they', don't you mean 'we'? You live here too

No, NZ have not got it right. They've completely closed down their economy (kind of understood given the virtue-signalling standpoints of their powderpuff, lightweight and ineffective PM) - from which they will have a hard time recovering. They've gone too far. Australia has got it about right - stringent social distancing but lots of economic activity continuing - mining hasn't missed a beat for instance. We're in a good position to bounce back as restrictions are slowly lifted over the coming months
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Old Apr 8th 2020, 10:00 am
  #369  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by Amazulu
By 'they', don't you mean 'we'? You live here too

No, NZ have not got it right. They've completely closed down their economy (kind of understood given the virtue-signalling standpoints of their powderpuff, lightweight and ineffective PM) - from which they will have a hard time recovering. They've gone too far. Australia has got it about right - stringent social distancing but lots of economic activity continuing - mining hasn't missed a beat for instance. We're in a good position to bounce back as restrictions are slowly lifted over the coming months
Nor has infrastructure. Projects marching on, new proposals being asked for. Infrastructure and mining is going to be the backbone for the Australian economy moving forward. Building construction still cracking on however there is a lack of new projects coming on. I am watching the planning applications hitting my local council. It's on a big surge right now. I can't explain why that would be. If these turn into actual projects that would help.

Can't do any of the above in an over zealous 4 week (which will turn into 8 week) lock down.

I guess it's fine if you are a government worker. You know your income continues and your job is there on the other side. However given the lack of tax income and massive spend I suspect a bunch of the fluffy government jobs will be axed.

Powderpuff PM ...... ha so true.

Last edited by Beoz; Apr 8th 2020 at 10:03 am.
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Old Apr 8th 2020, 10:55 am
  #370  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?


From Angus: And here's today's numbers. Aus still holding below 2%. And a quick note about the colours. This is an Excel function called conditional formatting. You select a range (in this case it's the row) and then it allocates colours on a lowest to high or a highest to low basis only. These's no external criteria.
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Old Apr 8th 2020, 11:59 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by GarryP
Nah, it's way higher than that already. Last I saw it was 3.8% and checking now ...... its 5.75%

As I say, we aren't getting out of this with less than 2-3% mortality here in Australia. Which is why you have to cut the number of cases, and shoot anyone that talks herd immunity.
You are ignoring the fact only a tiny proportion in other countries can get a test. Even on the NHS website, it says, if you think you have COVID19 do not go to a GP or hospital. What would most people do in this situation? Just like my colleague in Spain, ride it out and if you can't breath anymore, get to the hospital for a test.

Originally Posted by GarryP
Because you go hard to get it from the 2% you currently have, to 0%. That means you aggressively go after every new case, every possible cluster, and swamp it. You push for 0% for 2 weeks.

Then you can relax some.
But a hard lockdown for a low case load as Australia and New Zealand has doesn't work any better than a soft lockdown in getting yourself prepared for the swamp out.

Look at the numbers from New Zealand which has approximately the same population as NSW.

Total Cases
NZ 1210
NSW 2734

New Cases Peak
NZ 146 March 28
NSW 200 March 26

Yesterdays New Cases
NZ 54
NSW 49

Today
NSW 39
NZ ????

Sorry but the evidence is just not there. They are 2 weeks in on a hard lockdown and they are tracking roughly the same as NSW, if not worse as they started with less cases.

Either way, both places are at a level now where swamping it is more than possible, yet NZ chose the glory route without regard for other repercussions, and are still going to be going through a tailing off period of level 3, then 2 lockdowns.

On top of that, given what we see in comparison to NZ, the appetite for a full lockdown in Australia at this point is hardly going to be a popular plan - maybe in Victoria but thats the way Victoria rolls.

Lets see how the numbers continue to go.

Last edited by Beoz; Apr 8th 2020 at 12:01 pm.
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Old Apr 8th 2020, 12:00 pm
  #372  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by Luthien

From Angus: And here's today's numbers. Aus still holding below 2%. And a quick note about the colours. This is an Excel function called conditional formatting. You select a range (in this case it's the row) and then it allocates colours on a lowest to high or a highest to low basis only. These's no external criteria.
Just to say, but 3 point colour conditional formatting can be much better in this type of thing.

For instance, for %age daily increase you could have green at 2.5%, yellow at 10% and red at 20% - which would make it clear that everyone has actually got the growth rates down from what we were seeing (25%+).

Yesterday was 1.93% for Aus from my figures and today is looking towards 1.8% at the moment. Its Tassie, with their hard borders, that seem to doing worst percentagewise at the moment.
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Old Apr 8th 2020, 12:13 pm
  #373  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

This study here is suggesting there are 2 million infected in the UK. If this were true its putting the UK mortality rate at 0.35%

COVID-19 - Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
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Old Apr 8th 2020, 12:20 pm
  #374  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

65 new cases in total out of Vic, NSW, Qld and NT today. Should the remaining states and territories keep the numbers good, the new cases could be under the 100 for the first time.
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Old Apr 8th 2020, 1:00 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by GarryP
Just to say, but 3 point colour conditional formatting can be much better in this type of thing.

For instance, for %age daily increase you could have green at 2.5%, yellow at 10% and red at 20% - which would make it clear that everyone has actually got the growth rates down from what we were seeing (25%+).

Yesterday was 1.93% for Aus from my figures and today is looking towards 1.8% at the moment. Its Tassie, with their hard borders, that seem to doing worst percentagewise at the moment.
Tassie is having problems around Burnie. Coincidentally or not, where cruise ships frequently berthed.
Yes improvements could be made to the spreadsheet
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