moneypenny20

No idea, I hadn't scrolled down. I also couldn't be arsed to change it into English.

Here you go....


I didn't click on them, that's one rabbit hole I'm happy to miss.

Luthien

Today's figures

Boris Johnson in ICU - very sad to see his pregnant fiancee is also infected. Hoping for a swift recovery.

Beoz

So who's camping in the backyard for Easter?

Charismatic

Thank you for posting that analysis, I always enjoy seeing which strategy appears to be yielding results.

Some laboratories, hospitals and clean manufacturing environments use air ionisers to remove fine particles from the air in rooms. I've not seen this discussed by media but within a building this could be useful to reduce the probability of airborn transmission in a cost effective manner (available online for a few dollars each and cost very little to run) if there are multiple inhabitants in one building, like a family living in a house. The ionisers (not ozone generators!) do need to be set up correctly in each room to work as might be anticipated.

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carcajou

Luthien, thank you for these daily charts. I find them quite useful and informative.

GarryP

It's a technique that's been mentioned before in terms of flu. Primarily for airborne diseases, rather than the droplet bourne that covid19 seems to be, but might be useful for mechanical ventilation situations, to help stop spreading from one area of the building to another. Works by getting the particle to 'stick' to a surface, so best used by directing air onto a surface or through fine mesh, and ionising it before it gets there.

BTW the growth numbers for Australia have been 1.90% and 1.95% for the past two days. Providing VIC doesn't do badly today, the numbers already released for NSW and QLD mean today is likely to be similar or better.

Beoz

When do the Victorian numbers typically come out?

Meanwhile, across the borders:

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews says while the curve of new infections appears to be flattening, things could worsen again and tighter lockdowns will bring “pain” and “disruption” but “that is a price worth paying if it saves lives”.

But NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has flagged possible easing of restrictions in her state, saying this morning she didn’t want to “raise expectations” but there could be room to “tweak” them in coming weeks “if the health experts deem it appropriate for us”

There couldn't be a polar opposite of attitudes on this one. Glass half full, glass half empty. I am glad the national cabinet are there to keep the response "proportional".

bcworld

She then went on to say:

There's your glass half empty bit.

As ever though, if you're not doing what NSW are doing, well you're wrong.

Beoz

Better put, if you are not doing what the National Cabinet are advising, when your numbers are in check, what are you seriously trying to achieve?

He has got to be the most authoritarian leader in Australia by a long way.

But as I said, its probably a good thing to have an extremist around the National Cabinet table.

Sorry if that observation offends you in Victoria

GarryP

They are out - 1212 today, only up 21

The point is, as these tend down to single digits, it becomes much easier to serious trace contacts, meaning you can push it down even further.

And when it hits zero and stays there, it will be very difficult of scomo to keep the restrictive laws in place. He might want this to go on and on - but unless they screw up, the numbers suggest that this will be over bar the travel bans in a short time.

Beoz

Yep it looks that way. I wonder if mass immunity testing is on the cards. Given the vaccine is 18 months away if it comes at all, if some type of controlled herd immunity is being discussed.

Amazulu

Nonsense, why would he want to keep restrictions in place? They are costing the government and the nation a fortune and he will wan them gone as soon as feasibly possible. Only Premier Xi in Victoria wants to keep going harder - and he is basically a buffoon

GarryP

Whenever daft things like 'herd immunity' or 'flatten the curve' are mentioned, people seem to neglect to mention that they involve mass deaths.

If 20% of people need hospitalisation with the disease, and 5% need ICU, and for this disease it's 50:50 if you survive even with a working ICU, then that means 2.5% mortality.

Herd immunity doesn't kick in till 60% of the populous have caught the disease.

So 25,000,000 * 0.6 * 0.025 = a whole lot of death.

You can't flatten the curve to fix that, all you can do is make sure they never catch it. And given a vaccine is 12-18 months away, that means the number of new cases has to go to zero, and soon.

And if that can be done (and the numbers suggest it can) then many of the restrictions and limitations can be done away with too. It should be a no brainer, but scomo is still talking about long hauls, rather than eradication.

Beoz

"Controlled herd immunity".

The mortality rate is more likely less than 0.5% in Australia including the undetected/asymptomatic cases and 20% don't need hospitalisation. However that's still 75,000 deaths over the 60% of the population at best and I agree ..... too much.

The problem is no one knows if the virus can be eradicated if very few are immune. China, especially Wuhan, which very slowly started to open up this week will give a good indication. 3 confirmed cases in the last 3 weeks of permanent lockdown for nearly 2 and a half months. How many unconfirmed cases?

However the controlled part comes with immunity testing, finding out who is immune or who is likely to not get badly affected while keeping the risk categories protected, until the virus has no where to go.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-...ients/12124402

All it takes is one infection and we start to multiply and I don't think Australia has the stomach for a 2 month NZ style lock down and we don't even know if the NZ style lock down is effective or offers any benefit to the lock down Australia currently has.

Then there's the vaccine. If it comes, which is still an unknown, its +12 months away.

6 months is a long haul - I can't see all restrictions lifting before then. Especially the borders when other countries will still be going in 6 months.

The exit strategy will be interesting.

Luthien

From Angus: Aus still below 2% and Sweden now included to see how their experiment plays out. And adding a link for those who want to know what Sweden is doing.
ABCNEWS -coronavirus-sweden-adopting-more-flexible-approach
I read in the New York Times that only people who die of Covid 19 in hospital in New York are being counted but nearly as many are dying of it at home. Awful.