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Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Old Apr 2nd 2020, 6:34 pm
  #256  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

That escalated quickly.
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Old Apr 2nd 2020, 6:56 pm
  #257  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Premier Mark McGowan announces he has signed a quarantine and border travel exemption certificate for the Easter Bunny.
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Old Apr 2nd 2020, 7:39 pm
  #258  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

A friend of a friend has been publishing data daily. This is today's chart - interesting. Daniel Andrews will be stepping up to Stage 4 restrictions soon. Hopefully modelling used by Aus Government will be released soon.


He uses:
Johns Hopkins dashboard for cases and deaths. ourworldindata.org for detailed list of testing figures. All the other fields are calculations based on those three figures and population. He uses the countries his friends have asked for but eliminates others as it would become impossible to read on a phone

Last edited by Luthien; Apr 2nd 2020 at 8:24 pm.
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Old Apr 2nd 2020, 8:42 pm
  #259  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Interesting that the growth rate continues to fall (4% today) but the deaths spike. Seems like they are good at keeping them going for a while, but there is a mortality mode that kicks in after a certain period of time in ICU.

If the rate continues to fall then they DO have the option of wiping covid 19 out, geographic area by geographic area. Which is probably their only real chance (since the curve won't remain flattened). Not sure they will take their chance though.

This whole thing does highlight why it's so dangerous to elect politicians.

Last edited by GarryP; Apr 2nd 2020 at 9:24 pm.
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Old Apr 2nd 2020, 8:45 pm
  #260  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by GarryP
Interesting that the growth rate continues to fall (4% today) but the deaths spike. Seems like they are good at keeping them going for a while, but there is a morality mode that kicks in after a certain period of time in ICU.

If the rate continues to fall then they DO have the option of wiping covid 19 out, geographic area by geographic area. Which is probably their only real chance (since the curve won't remain flattened). Not sure they will take their chance though.

This whole thing does highlight why it's so dangerous to elect politicians.
Will probably see peak deaths in about 9 days if the growth rate continues to fall. Looks like they are going for the long haul without the NZ style wipeout. I do wonder how NZ are going to emerge from their full lock down economically. Given their borders won't be open for many months there is a lot of pain to come for NZ. The virus might be the least of their problems.
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Old Apr 2nd 2020, 8:50 pm
  #261  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by Luthien
A friend of a friend has been publishing data daily. This is today's chart - interesting. Daniel Andrews will be stepping up to Stage 4 restrictions soon. Hopefully modelling used by Aus Government will be released soon.


He uses:
Johns Hopkins dashboard for cases and deaths. ourworldindata.org for detailed list of testing figures. All the other fields are calculations based on those three figures and population. He uses the countries his friends have asked for but eliminates others as it would become impossible to read on a phone
I am very nervous about the UK. Surprisingly the US has done a lot of testing given the shambles in many other areas.
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Old Apr 2nd 2020, 8:54 pm
  #262  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Beoz and Steve please stop. It's not big, it's not clever, it's not interesting.
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Old Apr 2nd 2020, 9:11 pm
  #263  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Singapore, poster child for keeping the schools is open is closing the schools.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapo...ning-from-next
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Old Apr 2nd 2020, 9:37 pm
  #264  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by Beoz
Will probably see peak deaths in about 9 days if the growth rate continues to fall. Looks like they are going for the long haul without the NZ style wipeout. I do wonder how NZ are going to emerge from their full lock down economically. Given their borders won't be open for many months there is a lot of pain to come for NZ. The virus might be the least of their problems.
New Zealand are reliant upon their tourism industry, They will have to open borders at some point. As you say, a lot of pain to come.
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Old Apr 2nd 2020, 9:42 pm
  #265  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by bcworld
Singapore, poster child for keeping the schools is open is closing the schools.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapo...ning-from-next
Singapore has had spikes (expected) in the last week from returning citizens and there have been new clusters of local transmissions. This is their "second wave". Everyone diagnosed is automatically put into hospital. Although still free to move about, if you’ve been in contact with a confirmed case, it’s a strict 14 days stay-at-home notice. If you then develop symptoms, an ambulance will collect you.
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Old Apr 2nd 2020, 9:48 pm
  #266  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by GarryP
Interesting that the growth rate continues to fall (4% today) but the deaths spike. Seems like they are good at keeping them going for a while, but there is a mortality mode that kicks in after a certain period of time in ICU.

If the rate continues to fall then they DO have the option of wiping covid 19 out, geographic area by geographic area. Which is probably their only real chance (since the curve won't remain flattened). Not sure they will take their chance though.

This whole thing does highlight why it's so dangerous to elect politicians.
Yesterday's growth rate was 6.65%. We also reached 1% testing of the population yesterday. Singapore was included today,.

Yesterdays spreadsheet

2 April Spreadsheet

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Old Apr 2nd 2020, 10:11 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by bcworld
Singapore, poster child for keeping the schools is open is closing the schools.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapo...ning-from-next
They are shutting everything. They lost control of contact tracing. On Tuesday you could get hammered in a bar in Clarke Quay. Not now.
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Old Apr 2nd 2020, 11:13 pm
  #268  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Here's an exert from an interesting article from a week ago bi Dr Arthur Reingolt. But what would he know?

Can children pass on the virus and what measures need to be taken?


Just because children are not as likely to develop major symptoms, or even any at all, does not mean they won't contract the coronavirus. Reingold said it's likely that the number of cases in children is underreported, in part because their symptoms are so minimal or mild, but he warned they can still infect others.
"We have to assume that they can spread it. They're incredibly efficient at spreading other respiratory viruses like influenza. Of course, this is a different virus and it could be different," Reingold told CNN. "But we assume that children are extremely efficient at spreading respiratory viruses, including the new Covid-19."
The study in Pediatrics also showed strong evidence for human-to-human transmission, according to researchers. More than 90% of all pediatric patients were either asymptomatic (4.4%) or showed mild (50.9%) or moderate (38.8%) symptoms."
The biggest concern is that in small or large groups, children could still pass along the virus to those who are more susceptible -- including the elderly in the community or older family members.
So parents and children should take commonsense precautions recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention including regular hand cleaning with soap and water or alcohol-based hand sanitizers. Children and family members should engage in preventative measures to guard against spreading the respiratory infection, including covering coughs and staying up to date on vaccinations, according to the CDC.
School closings may also become more regular as community members test positive for the coronavirus. That would be one form of social distancing, just like a travel restriction, which officials hope can help contain the spread of the disease.

Contact tracing is key to America's coronavirus strategy. What happens if it stops working well?
Reingold explained that historically, during previous outbreaks of the flu, including H1N1 in 2009, early school closures at least delayed the peak of the outbreak.
"You don't prevent the outbreak, but you at least push it back a number of weeks," he said. "But if you wait too long, then school closures don't really have any demonstrable impact."
This all presents challenges for parents, of course, who are trying to juggle their ability to work and care for their children, who may have to stay home if schools close. Reingold said alternatives such as day care or child care centers may experience similar levels of disease transmission as in schools.
https://publichealth.berkeley.edu/pe...thur-reingold/

So again, reliant on people doing the right thing. The Bondi beach debacle, the fact that fines are now in place for not social distancing or being out without a valid reason shows that that isn't going to work, being that a large percentage of the population are stupid enough to think that they know best.
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Old Apr 3rd 2020, 12:04 am
  #269  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

One thing I've decided about this saga - I've never really wanted to go on a cruise ship (why?), but now I never will
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Old Apr 3rd 2020, 12:09 am
  #270  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by Beoz
They are shutting everything. They lost control of contact tracing. On Tuesday you could get hammered in a bar in Clarke Quay. Not now.
I can see you've got a new buzzword. It won't matter what anyone says, the answer will be 'contact tracing'.
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