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Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

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Old May 16th 2020, 5:23 am
  #826  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by GarryP
That's never going to work. but the question of how you make it happen when infection is front of people's mind is a difficult one :
  • If you wait for a vaccine then you could be waiting a long time, even forever. And the airlines would be dead by that point.
  • You might find a palliative to make the virus not matter - "take one of these and you'll be OK in the morning". Again, its a hail mary pass.
  • Quarantining passengers for 14 days is a non-starter.
  • You might insist that any region connected by air is certified free of the virus (eg the NZ bubble). Not a bad stopgap, and inducement for politician to stop being thick, but we see no sign that large scale countries can/will get there.
In the end I think the most likely fix is a quick, accurate, test for infection - an antibody test. One that can catch infection in it's early stages, and that can deliver accurate results in a short time. Then when you get to the airport you get tested and if infected you aren't allowed on. You get tested at the other end to, before you are allowed to get through customs, and if infected get repatriated before you can get in. Since it's a development of something that already exists, its more likely to be implementable - certainly before you could get a vaccine through regulations.
Only problem with that is that you've just moved through a busy (normally) airport, breathing and spreading germs before being tested, being found positive and then leaving again through even more people. Ideally you'd have the check a few hours before arriving at the airport. At the moment there's really no ideal or workable solution. Not one that works across the board anyway.
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Old May 16th 2020, 12:15 pm
  #827  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by spouse of scouse
The people who think international flights should be permanently scrapped might need to come up with an idea to replace the almost 6 billion dollars that international tourists spend in Queensland per year, plus the 200,000 jobs that rely on tourism!
More coal exports!!! Never let a good crisis go to waste...

Not at all my view on a personal level, but expect such arguments to surface.

E.g.
- emissions globally are way down anyway due to COVID-19
- those who still want to buy thermal coal for electricity generation are serving poorer consumers in less-developed countries
- the greens promised tourism would displace coal as the primary driver of jobs and income in FNQ, but that's not happening now, so why not greenlight Adani and Palmer and Rinehart and others...
- letting King Coal off the leash creates quite literally a "shovel-ready" fillup for QLD's depleted state coffers

And in terms of raw $$$, it would be far too easy to find an extra $6B/year in raw state GDP replacement from expanded business cases for coal projects.

Last edited by abner; May 16th 2020 at 12:27 pm.
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Old May 16th 2020, 10:11 pm
  #828  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by GarryP
That's never going to work. but the question of how you make it happen when infection is front of people's mind is a difficult one :
  • If you wait for a vaccine then you could be waiting a long time, even forever. And the airlines would be dead by that point.
  • You might find a palliative to make the virus not matter - "take one of these and you'll be OK in the morning". Again, its a hail mary pass.
  • Quarantining passengers for 14 days is a non-starter.
  • You might insist that any region connected by air is certified free of the virus (eg the NZ bubble). Not a bad stopgap, and inducement for politician to stop being thick, but we see no sign that large scale countries can/will get there.
In the end I think the most likely fix is a quick, accurate, test for infection - an antibody test. One that can catch infection in it's early stages, and that can deliver accurate results in a short time. Then when you get to the airport you get tested and if infected you aren't allowed on. You get tested at the other end to, before you are allowed to get through customs, and if infected get repatriated before you can get in. Since it's a development of something that already exists, its more likely to be implementable - certainly before you could get a vaccine through regulations.
  • Accept there will be infections, manage it, and crack on.
  • The more we accept the above, the more likely the virus will just become a strain of all other and eventually disappear (Spanish Flu), get a vaccine, get drugs to manage it's effects
International travel needs to march on. Italy is about to open up for summer.
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Old May 17th 2020, 12:08 am
  #829  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by Beoz
  • Accept there will be infections, manage it, and crack on.
  • The more we accept the above, the more likely the virus will just become a strain of all other and eventually disappear (Spanish Flu), get a vaccine, get drugs to manage it's effects
International travel needs to march on. Italy is about to open up for summer.
Totally reprehensible attitude. What you are saying is that you want many more grannies to die. Millions of them in fact. Eradication is the only solution we know will work, but thanks to incompetence and that daft "flatten the curve" meme, it's not what most are aiming at. Opening up without solving the problem just means the virus will take off again.
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Old May 17th 2020, 2:52 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by GarryP
Totally reprehensible attitude. What you are saying is that you want many more grannies to die. Millions of them in fact. Eradication is the only solution we know will work, but thanks to incompetence and that daft "flatten the curve" meme, it's not what most are aiming at. Opening up without solving the problem just means the virus will take off again.
There is no such thing as eradication as New Zealand and Victoria have demonstrated. This thing is with us until:

1. It dies out like SARS
2. A vaccine can immune most of the population. (This may never come)

Sadly the grannies will just have to be locked down or hope:

1. It dies out like SARS
2. A vaccine can immune most of the population. This may never come)
3. Drugs can manage the immune response and ultimate death.

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Old May 17th 2020, 6:41 am
  #831  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by Beoz
There is no such thing as eradication as New Zealand and Victoria have demonstrated. This thing is with us until:

1. It dies out like SARS
2. A vaccine can immune most of the population. (This may never come)

Sadly the grannies will just have to be locked down or hope:

1. It dies out like SARS
2. A vaccine can immune most of the population. This may never come)
3. Drugs can manage the immune response and ultimate death.
There are 18 countries / territories that currently have no active cases - Cambodia being the largest population with zero but others include PNG who have been on zero active cases for two weeks now.

SA is on zero active now, and no new cases since 7th May (and that one was the first in two weeks so ). ACT is also on zero active and have been for a week.

To say there is no such thing as eradication is both true and false - true that in all likelihood the virus will be around for some time, but false in that it can be eradicated from a region / country.
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Old May 17th 2020, 8:14 am
  #832  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

62 nations have now backed Australia's motion for an investigation into the origins of the virus, including the US, UK, Canada, New Zealand, Russia, India, and all member states of the European Union. A document with tougher language towards China from the European Union is forthcoming.
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Old May 17th 2020, 8:18 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

It has flown completely under the radar and is being ignored by the media, but there is a humanitarian and medical catastrophe unfolding in Russia. They now have the third-largest number of cases and will likely overtake Spain for second-most shortly.

I have a lot of experience living and working in that region of the world and outside of certain quarters of Moscow and St Petersburg, and possibly Nizhny Novgorod, the Russian medical system does not have the capacity to cope.

Russia, like China, is also probably releasing fudged figures however Putin has telegraphed the unfolding disaster in recent days.
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Old May 17th 2020, 8:34 am
  #834  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by old.sparkles
There are 18 countries / territories that currently have no active cases - Cambodia being the largest population with zero but others include PNG who have been on zero active cases for two weeks now.

SA is on zero active now, and no new cases since 7th May (and that one was the first in two weeks so ). ACT is also on zero active and have been for a week.

To say there is no such thing as eradication is both true and false - true that in all likelihood the virus will be around for some time, but false in that it can be eradicated from a region / country.
SA and PNG had a die out. Again this will probably be what happens in NZ and Aus too given Aus was never really locked down and NZ went from super hard line to loose with both active and new cases coming .

FWIW, Garry's original idea of eradication was hard line lock down for an extended period until it was gone. He may have changed his stance on that.

PNG took some social distancing measures, it was very far from NZ style hard line.

PNG had a total of about 2000 tests over 9 mil people. Yep. Die out or people just don't know they have it.
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Old May 17th 2020, 9:24 am
  #835  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by Beoz
FWIW, Garry's original idea of eradication was hard line lock down for an extended period until it was gone. He may have changed his stance on that.
If you are in a mess, like the US, then it's really the only option to bring it under control. As far as Australia is concerned, the example of NSW and VIC has shown that we were on the ragged edge of going down the out of control path. We were luck to gain control with lighter touch restrictions, and the risk really was too high. The ignorance and lack of modelling was frightening.
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Old May 17th 2020, 1:38 pm
  #836  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Looks like I’ll get back onto a cricket pitch before the office, result!
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Old May 17th 2020, 9:22 pm
  #837  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by DeadVim
Looks like I’ll get back onto a cricket pitch before the office, result!
Already back in the office. Only difference is less people allowed in meeting rooms (so less effective meeting rooms) and no visitors, so more VTC.
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Old May 17th 2020, 11:06 pm
  #838  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by GarryP
If you are in a mess, like the US, then it's really the only option to bring it under control. As far as Australia is concerned, the example of NSW and VIC has shown that we were on the ragged edge of going down the out of control path. We were luck to gain control with lighter touch restrictions, and the risk really was too high. The ignorance and lack of modelling was frightening.
Yes but "under control" is not "eradication".

Yes we could have gone "out of control" but the right measures were put in place. Namely, entry to citizens and residents, 2 weeks forced quarrentine, and sensible social distancing practices. Most importantly we got the timing right unlike the US and UK, and the second most important part is Australia's measures were proportional.
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Old May 17th 2020, 11:07 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by DeadVim
Looks like I’ll get back onto a cricket pitch before the office, result!
Has a shining the ball policy been released?
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Old May 17th 2020, 11:20 pm
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by Beoz
Yes but "under control" is not "eradication".

Yes we could have gone "out of control" but the right measures were put in place. Namely, entry to citizens and residents, 2 weeks forced quarrentine, and sensible social distancing practices. Most importantly we got the timing right unlike the US and UK, and the second most important part is Australia's measures were proportional.
I hope you are right, Beoz, it's really over and I am just neurotic because of where I am living right now. But I watched my friends in Singapore think it was all over and then they had their first deaths. Now I'm seeing Australian friends already having different groups of people over for dinner every night and it frightens me. I wish Australia as a whole would take it more slowly.
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