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Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Old Apr 28th 2020, 11:01 pm
  #721  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?


A jump to today's update rather than post daily updates. Some big changes since last posting the table Today's table notes “NZ goes next level with a negative growth rate. Their official figures are actually made up of positive and also probable. One of the probables ended up not being positive and they had no new positives so their numbers have gone down by 1. AU found 9 new ones.”

I think China tried to coverup the outbreak in Wuhan. I think they then realised it was a severe problem and slammed walls around Wuhan, tolerated absolute block outs from other countries (such as our instant ban on all flights from China ). I think that the trace to a wet market was probably correct. Viruses can be very accurately identified and researchers have been keeping track of viruses in animals.
The USA covered up for about the same time about their role in spreading the Spanish flu which started in the USA. Swine flu also had origins in USA. Asian flu was traced to a duck herder in the Ukraine. Sick duck and sick herder managed a crossover that could infect people but carried identifiers from the duck flu.

edit for typo's
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Old Apr 29th 2020, 3:21 am
  #722  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by Luthien
out their role in spreading the Spanish flu which started in the USA. Swine flu also had origins in USA. Asian flu was traced to a duck herder in the Ukraine. Sick duck and sick herder managed a crossover that could infect people but carried identifiers from the duck flu.

edit for typo's
Although it first appeared in Kansas, Spanish flu originated in Asia - almost certainly in China. Britain recruited thousands of Chinese labourers to help in their war effort in Europe. These people were transported across the Pacific to Vancouver and then by train to Halifax for onward travel to France and Britain. It is highly likely that they brought Spanish flu to North America
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Old Apr 29th 2020, 7:09 am
  #723  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by BEVS
I didn't expect you to agree with my posts. I expected you to push against them . That is what you do. I was posting to add balance and perspective as someone that has lived and worked in NZ for a good 16 years now & is currently living in NZ alongside its own Covid19 crisis.
Have a bit more think though & maybe a bit of a read up on critical care beds and hospital capacity nationwide. NZ is not Victoria. Victoria is a part of Oz. NZ is stand alone.
I have read your points, and thanks for providing as someone in NZ, but it still doesn't doesn't explain why New Zealand with its tiny case load, low population density, ability to close of the borders and small population abilities to track and trace, went for the eradication method, in which it failed, whilst damaging the economy by 40% (instead of the 25% at level 3 as you call it). Sure, I think I read it has 5 ICU beds per whatever head of population compared to Australia's 8 but that's the idea of flattening the curve, which it appears NZ ended up doing anyway, instead of elimination.

Originally Posted by BEVS
Here is an explanation of the use of the word elimination as was explained several times by Dr. Bloomfield and then used by J Ardern. I understood it. BTW , a prime minister is advised by many others. A prime minister does not make decisions without across the board consultation. That includes experts in their field. That is both national and international.
I think the Doc is a little confused. "When epidemiologists use the word eliminatein the context of Covid-19, they mean to bring the disease under control and reduce cases to zero in a particular geographical location." NZ hasn't brought the new cases to zero - there were 2 today and still 200 odd active cases. Sounds like he might be getting a bit of pressure from Ms Ardern to try a bit of conviction over her false claims. That's right, she doesn't make these decisions on her own but one must ask why no one as ever heard of a previous NZ PM and now the world knows about this one. If she didn't want all this publicity she wouldn't go looking for it. She's always angling for all the publicity she can get and there's no harm in giving the experts in the field a bit of a steer.

Plan B is an interesting group. Maybe she should have spoken with them.

Originally Posted by BEVS
All I can repeat is that NZ works in its own way & although you visit a bit you do not understand really just how the country ticks & operates at the contact level. The movement of people around this very small country is around small communities. All communities have links to other communities - over both islands. In usual times the entire place is awash with international tourists at every single corner. A virus like this one, largely unchecked, would ravage it . The economy was always going to get a very severe knock . The equation was what could be saved and what could be risked.
Locking down the borders is a given, leaving it unchecked is not an option, but its all about what the response is taking into account the economy, jobs, mental health, and making it proportional.

I don't understand how NZ communities are different to communities in other parts of the world. It takes the best part of 7 hours to drive from Christchurch to Queenstown. Not easy just to pop down and see Nana.

Originally Posted by BEVS
Now. You can seek to denigrate from afar, because you simply disagree, if you so wish. It doesn't change anything other than you being scathing of a country where you do not live. Why you would seek to do that I am not sure & will not interest myself.
Because I have a strong suspicion Ardern had publicity in mind when decisions were made, now she is lying to the world about eradication really is. I think you have yourself a special PM there and I am not overly sure her intentions are entirely for the people.

Originally Posted by BEVS
NZ is now able to contain and track this dreadful virus. It knows it has the assorted capacities , in its own small way as a small nation, to deal with that. It will build on that safely. Hopefully other countries will find themselves in a similar position . From there maybe borders can open somewhat. For a small country like NZ that would be a huge boon but not if it once again puts the whole NZ populace at risk of an epidemic. NZ has enough natural risks to deal with , it doesn't need viral epidemics also.
I think you are over cooking it. Your population density doesn't lend itself to an easy spread, the case numbers are tiny and were in the first place, simple border controls, social distancing, and track and trace would have sufficed.

Look maybe it was just a gross error of judgement, that cost New Zealanders a lot, and I guess when we all look back there were plenty of bad decisions made. But you do have to wonder, given Ardern's love of marketing and publicity, whether her decision to over cook the situation had an element of publicity about it. I am sure we will never know but there are already a lot New Zealanders asking such questions.

Last edited by Beoz; Apr 29th 2020 at 7:12 am.
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Old Apr 29th 2020, 10:15 am
  #724  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by Beoz
but one must ask why no one as ever heard of a previous NZ PM and now the world knows about this one. If she didn't want all this publicity she wouldn't go looking for it. She's always angling for all the publicity she can get and there's no harm in giving the experts in the field a bit of a steer..
I have no expert opinion on the rest so ignoring that but imo Australia have always been aware of who the NZ PM is. The ties are, and have always been, close. Whether the rest of the world does/doesn't/did/didn't I couldn't say, I've just asked a few friends and family in the UK if they know who the PM of NZ is and some know she's a woman but none know her name. Fascinating? Not really but vaguely interesting possibly. Representative of the rest of the world? No idea. As for her being 'famous' that really came to the forefront, outside of politics, when she dealt with the Christchurch shooting. I honestly have no idea why you repeatedly suggest she's after publicity. She has the job, why, in your opinion, does she need more publicity, what would she gain? What is she doing that other PMs/Presidents aren't?
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Old Apr 29th 2020, 11:34 am
  #725  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

For me, work is likely to reduce its restrictions next week (working from work, not home). So no matter what the states might say, things are trend back towards normal at its own pace.
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Old Apr 29th 2020, 12:30 pm
  #726  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by moneypenny20
I have no expert opinion on the rest so ignoring that but imo Australia have always been aware of who the NZ PM is. The ties are, and have always been, close. Whether the rest of the world does/doesn't/did/didn't I couldn't say, I've just asked a few friends and family in the UK if they know who the PM of NZ is and some know she's a woman but none know her name. Fascinating? Not really but vaguely interesting possibly. Representative of the rest of the world? No idea.
Then the publicity is working. Before her most in Britain wouldn't have been able to tell what gender NZ prime minister was. I certainly wouldn't have been able to.

Originally Posted by moneypenny20
As for her being 'famous' that really came to the forefront, outside of politics, when she dealt with the Christchurch shooting. I honestly have no idea why you repeatedly suggest she's after publicity. She has the job, why, in your opinion, does she need more publicity, what would she gain?
There's a few world leaders looking for publicity. Trump and the late Kim Jong-un come to mind.

Originally Posted by moneypenny20
What is she doing that other PMs/Presidents aren't?
I think I outlined that above? No?
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Old Apr 29th 2020, 12:32 pm
  #727  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by GarryP
For me, work is likely to reduce its restrictions next week (working from work, not home). So no matter what the states might say, things are trend back towards normal at its own pace.
Traffic is back in action. Not sure if that's the return of teachers and staff to schools and generally people relaxing on the restrictions.

I am going to the office tomorrow - I feel the need to help keep the coffee shop in business, if its still there.
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Old Apr 29th 2020, 1:29 pm
  #728  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

This is interesting.

https://www.newindianexpress.com/opi...e-2136722.html

Interestingly the BCG vaccine was used in Australia until the 80's except in NSW. Correlation with the case numbers by chance?
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Old Apr 29th 2020, 11:14 pm
  #729  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

I'm back in the city from Monday unfortunately. At lease the drive in will be a dream (saying that, it's usually not that bad anyway)
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Old Apr 30th 2020, 6:50 am
  #730  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by Beoz
Then the publicity is working. Before her most in Britain wouldn't have been able to tell what gender NZ prime minister was. I certainly wouldn't have been able to.
I could.



Originally Posted by Beoz
There's a few world leaders looking for publicity. Trump and the late Kim Jong-un come to mind.
That doesn't answer my question


Originally Posted by Beoz
I think I outlined that above? No?
No.
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Old Apr 30th 2020, 8:54 am
  #731  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Arden done the right thing, getting in hard and fast. USA and UK chose another path of the other extreme and we can all witness where it got them.

Remember, no one knew just how the virus would develop during the early stages. Arden, showed, yet again true leadership in taking the line she did. NZ, after all, being so isolated
was the one nation, that could go for near eradication if not total to which she went for.

Australia showed a middle path, with luck largely on its side it came out well. It could have been so different in OZ though.

NZ again showing the world leadership in time of crisis.
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Old Apr 30th 2020, 9:04 am
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by the troubadour
Arden done the right thing, getting in hard and fast. USA and UK chose another path of the other extreme and we can all witness where it got them.

Remember, no one knew just how the virus would develop during the early stages. Arden, showed, yet again true leadership in taking the line she did. NZ, after all, being so isolated
was the one nation, that could go for near eradication if not total to which she went for.

Australia showed a middle path, with luck largely on its side it came out well. It could have been so different in OZ though.

NZ again showing the world leadership in time of crisis.
NZ v UK/USA. Wow. Maybe you should try NZ v Iceland/Taiwan. That would be a better geographical and social comparison. Iceland and Taiwan also had the timeline jump on NZ. All they had to do was look.
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Old Apr 30th 2020, 12:11 pm
  #733  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by the troubadour
Arden done the right thing, getting in hard and fast. USA and UK chose another path of the other extreme and we can all witness where it got them.

Remember, no one knew just how the virus would develop during the early stages. Arden, showed, yet again true leadership in taking the line she did. NZ, after all, being so isolated
was the one nation, that could go for near eradication if not total to which she went for.

Australia showed a middle path, with luck largely on its side it came out well. It could have been so different in OZ though.

NZ again showing the world leadership in time of crisis.
New Zealand:
Level 4 lockdown - little economic activity meaning economy torched
95 deaths (pro rata given 5x population)
7380 cases

Australia:
Level 2 lockdown - economic activity down but major sectors like mining, agriculture and construction continuing. We'll come out of this pretty strongly - it won't be a v-shaped recovery but it will be u-shaped
91 deaths
6753 cases

Australia crushing it without crushing our economy

New Zealand's over-reliance on tourism is about to come back and bite them in the ass. Countries that rely heavily on tourism tend not to be the most successful - think Spain, Greece, Thailand. There's going to be little tourism for a few years. New Zealand is officially a first-world, western country but only nominally so as they have major structural issues in their economy and society. They are effectively a second-world country with some first-world aspects - there's a reason so many of their people move to Queensland and WA. Our over-reliance on Asian students is about to come back and bite us in the ass - but that's a good thing as what will come out of that will be better in the long run for the university sector and the country. Sure, we have to diversify our supply chains in key areas and increase manufacturing in critical sectors but we can do that with some effort and will. The world is going to be a very different place in 2022

Ardern is a show pony - all hat and no cattle as my mate in Georgia puts it. A good friend of mine in New Plymouth was telling me the other day that she is only really popular with white women - white males and a majority of Maori can't stand her. I guess we'll find out in September what the people there think about her. As a female hard left-wing leader, the MSM loves Ardern, so she gets all the international attention and adoration - Colbert, The View, Time Magazine etc. Scott Morrison on the other hand is a white, middle-aged Christian conservative male - everything the MSM hates - and our international coverage reflects this. It's all so predictable
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Old Apr 30th 2020, 1:05 pm
  #734  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by Amazulu
New Zealand:
Level 4 lockdown - little economic activity meaning economy torched
95 deaths (pro rata given 5x population)
7380 cases

Australia:
Level 2 lockdown - economic activity down but major sectors like mining, agriculture and construction continuing. We'll come out of this pretty strongly - it won't be a v-shaped recovery but it will be u-shaped
91 deaths
6753 cases

Australia crushing it without crushing our economy

New Zealand's over-reliance on tourism is about to come back and bite them in the ass. Countries that rely heavily on tourism tend not to be the most successful - think Spain, Greece, Thailand. There's going to be little tourism for a few years. New Zealand is officially a first-world, western country but only nominally so as they have major structural issues in their economy and society. They are effectively a second-world country with some first-world aspects - there's a reason so many of their people move to Queensland and WA. Our over-reliance on Asian students is about to come back and bite us in the ass - but that's a good thing as what will come out of that will be better in the long run for the university sector and the country. Sure, we have to diversify our supply chains in key areas and increase manufacturing in critical sectors but we can do that with some effort and will. The world is going to be a very different place in 2022

Ardern is a show pony - all hat and no cattle as my mate in Georgia puts it. A good friend of mine in New Plymouth was telling me the other day that she is only really popular with white women - white males and a majority of Maori can't stand her. I guess we'll find out in September what the people there think about her. As a female hard left-wing leader, the MSM loves Ardern, so she gets all the international attention and adoration - Colbert, The View, Time Magazine etc. Scott Morrison on the other hand is a white, middle-aged Christian conservative male - everything the MSM hates - and our international coverage reflects this. It's all so predictable
This is from an article in the SMH and given the leanings of this paper I was surprised the editor allowed this to be published.

The international media has missed this scoop. You won’t see Morrison’s picture featured alongside New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern, Germany’s Angela Merkel, Norway’s Erna Solberg or Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-wen because Australia does not fit the pattern of successful nations led by women. Yet Australia’s record to date is better than any European country, and is the equal of New Zealand’s and Taiwan’s.
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Old May 1st 2020, 7:39 am
  #735  
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Default Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?

Originally Posted by Beoz
Then the publicity is working. Before her most in Britain wouldn't have been able to tell what gender NZ prime minister was. I certainly wouldn't have been able to.
........
Thought I'd be too late to reply to this, but the thread hasn't moved on much.

The answer would be sure they would because for the most part, global leaders / prime ministers / presidents / etc are male, and anyone would make that guess. Anything else usually makes the news everywhere, so if it isn't in the news - male and probably middle aged or older
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