Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?
#363
Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?
The mortality rate is more likely less than 0.5% in Australia including the undetected/asymptomatic cases
All it takes is one infection and we start to multiply and I don't think Australia has the stomach for a 2 month NZ style lock down and we don't even know if the NZ style lock down is effective or offers any benefit to the lock down Australia currently has.
All it takes is one infection and we start to multiply and I don't think Australia has the stomach for a 2 month NZ style lock down and we don't even know if the NZ style lock down is effective or offers any benefit to the lock down Australia currently has.
The problem with that is that if it were the cases they would in turn be creating even more decidedly unhidden and visible symptomatic cases as they moved around - which would show up. However they don't. So although there might be one or two, there aren't enough to shift the mortality figures.
We don't get out from this with less than 1% mortality, and more likely 2-3% even if everything goes right. It it doesn't go right then it's much higher - look at Italy.
As for Australia not having the stomach for going hard - i'd say what they won't have the stomach for is this level of lockdown going on for months and months. Particularly if it's just a few new cases a day. People will not keep this up long term. Just watch what happens round Easter.
NZ have it right - eliminate the new cases down to zero, then you can relax the regulations excepting the borders and have a functioning economy till the vaccine gets here. And if you are down to very few new cases, you are in a good position to clamp down on them and kill off the clusters. Many Oz states are actually in a better position than NZ to do it, anything less than 10 new cases per day and zero new cases is within reach - and that accounts for 5 Oz states at the moment.
#364
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?
From Angus: Aus still below 2% and Sweden now included to see how their experiment plays out. And adding a link for those who want to know what Sweden is doing.
ABCNEWS -coronavirus-sweden-adopting-more-flexible-approach
I read in the New York Times that only people who die of Covid 19 in hospital in New York are being counted but nearly as many are dying of it at home. Awful.
#365
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Joined: Dec 2010
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Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?
Same for Italy.
The problem with that is that if it were the cases they would in turn be creating even more decidedly unhidden and visible symptomatic cases as they moved around - which would show up. However they don't. So although there might be one or two, there aren't enough to shift the mortality figures.
As for Australia not having the stomach for going hard - i'd say what they won't have the stomach for is this level of lockdown going on for months and months. Particularly if it's just a few new cases a day. People will not keep this up long term. Just watch what happens round Easter.
Maybe there will be an easter explosion, maybe not. I guess we will find out how many of those "People love to wonder that there are large numbers of hidden, asymptomatic" are out there in Australia.
NZ have it right - eliminate the new cases down to zero, then you can relax the regulations excepting the borders and have a functioning economy till the vaccine gets here. And if you are down to very few new cases, you are in a good position to clamp down on them and kill off the clusters. Many Oz states are actually in a better position than NZ to do it, anything less than 10 new cases per day and zero new cases is within reach - and that accounts for 5 Oz states at the moment.
#366
Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?
As I say, we aren't getting out of this with less than 2-3% mortality here in Australia. Which is why you have to cut the number of cases, and shoot anyone that talks herd immunity.
Then you can relax some.
#367
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Joined: Jan 2017
Posts: 2,900
Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?
Things have settled enough in Western Australia, that from tomorrow anyone who is sick with a fever, or has respiratory illness symptoms, can get tested. You don't need to have traveled overseas, been a close contact of someone, be ill at a certain threshold or whatever.
#368
Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?
As for Australia not having the stomach for going hard - i'd say what they won't have the stomach for is this level of lockdown going on for months and months. Particularly if it's just a few new cases a day. People will not keep this up long term. Just watch what happens round Easter.
NZ have it right - eliminate the new cases down to zero, then you can relax the regulations excepting the borders and have a functioning economy till the vaccine gets here. And if you are down to very few new cases, you are in a good position to clamp down on them and kill off the clusters. Many Oz states are actually in a better position than NZ to do it, anything less than 10 new cases per day and zero new cases is within reach - and that accounts for 5 Oz states at the moment.
NZ have it right - eliminate the new cases down to zero, then you can relax the regulations excepting the borders and have a functioning economy till the vaccine gets here. And if you are down to very few new cases, you are in a good position to clamp down on them and kill off the clusters. Many Oz states are actually in a better position than NZ to do it, anything less than 10 new cases per day and zero new cases is within reach - and that accounts for 5 Oz states at the moment.
No, NZ have not got it right. They've completely closed down their economy (kind of understood given the virtue-signalling standpoints of their powderpuff, lightweight and ineffective PM) - from which they will have a hard time recovering. They've gone too far. Australia has got it about right - stringent social distancing but lots of economic activity continuing - mining hasn't missed a beat for instance. We're in a good position to bounce back as restrictions are slowly lifted over the coming months
#369
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Dec 2010
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Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?
By 'they', don't you mean 'we'? You live here too
No, NZ have not got it right. They've completely closed down their economy (kind of understood given the virtue-signalling standpoints of their powderpuff, lightweight and ineffective PM) - from which they will have a hard time recovering. They've gone too far. Australia has got it about right - stringent social distancing but lots of economic activity continuing - mining hasn't missed a beat for instance. We're in a good position to bounce back as restrictions are slowly lifted over the coming months
No, NZ have not got it right. They've completely closed down their economy (kind of understood given the virtue-signalling standpoints of their powderpuff, lightweight and ineffective PM) - from which they will have a hard time recovering. They've gone too far. Australia has got it about right - stringent social distancing but lots of economic activity continuing - mining hasn't missed a beat for instance. We're in a good position to bounce back as restrictions are slowly lifted over the coming months
Can't do any of the above in an over zealous 4 week (which will turn into 8 week) lock down.
I guess it's fine if you are a government worker. You know your income continues and your job is there on the other side. However given the lack of tax income and massive spend I suspect a bunch of the fluffy government jobs will be axed.
Powderpuff PM ...... ha so true.
Last edited by Beoz; Apr 8th 2020 at 10:03 pm.
#370
Excessively Diverted
Joined: Jan 2012
Location: Melbourne Australia
Posts: 214
Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?
From Angus: And here's today's numbers. Aus still holding below 2%. And a quick note about the colours. This is an Excel function called conditional formatting. You select a range (in this case it's the row) and then it allocates colours on a lowest to high or a highest to low basis only. These's no external criteria.
#371
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Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?
Nah, it's way higher than that already. Last I saw it was 3.8% and checking now ...... its 5.75%
As I say, we aren't getting out of this with less than 2-3% mortality here in Australia. Which is why you have to cut the number of cases, and shoot anyone that talks herd immunity.
As I say, we aren't getting out of this with less than 2-3% mortality here in Australia. Which is why you have to cut the number of cases, and shoot anyone that talks herd immunity.
Look at the numbers from New Zealand which has approximately the same population as NSW.
Total Cases
NZ 1210
NSW 2734
New Cases Peak
NZ 146 March 28
NSW 200 March 26
Yesterdays New Cases
NZ 54
NSW 49
Today
NSW 39
NZ ????
Sorry but the evidence is just not there. They are 2 weeks in on a hard lockdown and they are tracking roughly the same as NSW, if not worse as they started with less cases.
Either way, both places are at a level now where swamping it is more than possible, yet NZ chose the glory route without regard for other repercussions, and are still going to be going through a tailing off period of level 3, then 2 lockdowns.
On top of that, given what we see in comparison to NZ, the appetite for a full lockdown in Australia at this point is hardly going to be a popular plan - maybe in Victoria but thats the way Victoria rolls.
Lets see how the numbers continue to go.
Last edited by Beoz; Apr 9th 2020 at 12:01 am.
#372
Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?
From Angus: And here's today's numbers. Aus still holding below 2%. And a quick note about the colours. This is an Excel function called conditional formatting. You select a range (in this case it's the row) and then it allocates colours on a lowest to high or a highest to low basis only. These's no external criteria.
For instance, for %age daily increase you could have green at 2.5%, yellow at 10% and red at 20% - which would make it clear that everyone has actually got the growth rates down from what we were seeing (25%+).
Yesterday was 1.93% for Aus from my figures and today is looking towards 1.8% at the moment. Its Tassie, with their hard borders, that seem to doing worst percentagewise at the moment.
#373
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Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?
This study here is suggesting there are 2 million infected in the UK. If this were true its putting the UK mortality rate at 0.35%
COVID-19 - Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
COVID-19 - Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
#374
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Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 14,040
Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?
65 new cases in total out of Vic, NSW, Qld and NT today. Should the remaining states and territories keep the numbers good, the new cases could be under the 100 for the first time.
#375
Excessively Diverted
Joined: Jan 2012
Location: Melbourne Australia
Posts: 214
Re: Coronavirus - how's everyone doing?
Just to say, but 3 point colour conditional formatting can be much better in this type of thing.
For instance, for %age daily increase you could have green at 2.5%, yellow at 10% and red at 20% - which would make it clear that everyone has actually got the growth rates down from what we were seeing (25%+).
Yesterday was 1.93% for Aus from my figures and today is looking towards 1.8% at the moment. Its Tassie, with their hard borders, that seem to doing worst percentagewise at the moment.
For instance, for %age daily increase you could have green at 2.5%, yellow at 10% and red at 20% - which would make it clear that everyone has actually got the growth rates down from what we were seeing (25%+).
Yesterday was 1.93% for Aus from my figures and today is looking towards 1.8% at the moment. Its Tassie, with their hard borders, that seem to doing worst percentagewise at the moment.
Yes improvements could be made to the spreadsheet