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Barnaby Joyce Resigns

Barnaby Joyce Resigns

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Old Feb 25th 2018, 11:35 pm
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Default Re: Barnaby Joyce Resigns

Originally Posted by bcworld View Post
Hillary was leading the popular vote by about 3%. In the end she won the popular vote by about 2%. The outcome of Brexit is in line with many of the polls...they were a 50/50 toss up as to which side was in front.
So the poll was about Hillary (person) reflected the result, and the polls for Shorten (person) are looking pretty bad.

It doesn't look good then for the Labor party
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Old Feb 26th 2018, 12:12 am
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Default Re: Barnaby Joyce Resigns

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
So the poll was about Hillary (person)
Well yeah, it was a presidential election.

So do you think the people who are delivering that 53/47 result in the Newspoll don't realise that Shorten is the Labor leader?
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Old Feb 26th 2018, 12:25 am
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Default Re: Barnaby Joyce Resigns

Originally Posted by bcworld View Post
Well yeah, it was a presidential election.

So do you think the people who are delivering that 53/47 result in the Newspoll don't realise that Shorten is the Labor leader?
Isn't it 52% to 48%?

I think the 45% to 31% Turnbull to Shorten is more telling. After all, most people don't vote for the actual content of the party, they vote for the front man/woman.
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Old Feb 26th 2018, 12:56 am
  #34  
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Default Re: Barnaby Joyce Resigns

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
Isn't it 52% to 48%?
ReachTel poll on the 22nd was 54%-46%

Shorten vs Trunbull was 47%-53%, though this was before Joyce resigned.
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Old Feb 26th 2018, 2:04 am
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Default Re: Barnaby Joyce Resigns

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
ReachTel poll on the 22nd was 54%-46%

Shorten vs Trunbull was 47%-53%, though this was before Joyce resigned.
NewsPoll had Shorten vs Turnbull 31% to 45% respectively on Feb 4th.
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Old Feb 26th 2018, 2:14 am
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Default Re: Barnaby Joyce Resigns

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
NewsPoll had Shorten vs Turnbull 31% to 45% respectively on Feb 4th.
And on Feb 18th they had 53/47 for Labor and 40/33 for Turnbull. These are the same people being polled. Both have fairly strongly negative readings. But the numbers are saying I'd prefer him, but I'm more likely to vote for them.
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Old Feb 26th 2018, 2:17 am
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Default Re: Barnaby Joyce Resigns

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
Shorten vs Trunbull was 47%-53%, though this was before Joyce resigned.
NewsPoll had Shorten vs Turnbull 31% to 45% respectively on Feb 4th.
Difference is the ReachTel poll forces the choice to be between Shorten and Trunbull. The Newspoll version allows other options. If you are looking for a 'presidential' type poll number the first approach is preferable.

What it basically means is that a number of people would prefer some other candidate, but if pushed they would pick Shorten over Trunbull. Given one is actually PM and the other not, it's basically a dead heat in popularity terms.
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Old Feb 26th 2018, 2:29 am
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Default Re: Barnaby Joyce Resigns

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
Difference is the ReachTel poll forces the choice to be between Shorten and Trunbull. The Newspoll version allows other options. If you are looking for a 'presidential' type poll number the first approach is preferable.

What it basically means is that a number of people would prefer some other candidate, but if pushed they would pick Shorten over Trunbull. Given one is actually PM and the other not, it's basically a dead heat in popularity terms.
Just like on voting day.

I think we have a "todays" winner.
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Old Feb 26th 2018, 2:47 am
  #39  
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Default Re: Barnaby Joyce Resigns

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
Just like on voting day.

I think we have a "todays" winner.
Nope.

For a presidential type race the Democrats and repubs don't allow multiple multiple candidates - instead it's whittled down to two. And Australia would have a STV approach anyway, so nothing but the last two count.

As I say, they are basically neck and neck - which shouldn't be surprising since the parties are also pretty much neck and neck. And actually THAT is the most surprising thing.
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Old Feb 26th 2018, 3:45 am
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Default Re: Barnaby Joyce Resigns

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
Nope.

For a presidential type race the Democrats and repubs don't allow multiple multiple candidates - instead it's whittled down to two. And Australia would have a STV approach anyway, so nothing but the last two count.

As I say, they are basically neck and neck - which shouldn't be surprising since the parties are also pretty much neck and neck. And actually THAT is the most surprising thing.
I think you were right the first time. The Newspoll is Turnbull, Shorten and Other. That's exactly how people vote on election day. How the votes are passed to form a government is irrelevant. Average Joe who votes for Hanson doesn't know where their votes are passed too.
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Old Feb 26th 2018, 4:03 am
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Default Re: Barnaby Joyce Resigns

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
I think you were right the first time. The Newspoll is Turnbull, Shorten and Other. That's exactly how people vote on election day. How the votes are passed to form a government is irrelevant. Average Joe who votes for Hanson doesn't know where their votes are passed too.
Nope. On election day they vote by party, as we know. This is a theoretical presidential type race - if we were unwise enough to do such a thing.

Your case would be equivalent to having Shorten, Trunbull, Plibersek, Albo, Abbott, Dutton, etc. all standing. Which is not what happens, both because parties pick single candidates, and because STV moves votes for loonies like Hanson to the main candidates.

Put it this way, if Shorten is on 31% and Trunbull on 45%, that leaves 24% that in an realistic presidential type race would end up with one or the other - which is what the ReachTel has with them neck and neck. And what that means is they might not love the idea of Shorten, but when compared to Trunbull, they will take him.
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Old Feb 26th 2018, 4:36 am
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Default Re: Barnaby Joyce Resigns

Originally Posted by GarryP View Post
Nope. On election day they vote by party, as we know. This is a theoretical presidential type race - if we were unwise enough to do such a thing.

Your case would be equivalent to having Shorten, Trunbull, Plibersek, Albo, Abbott, Dutton, etc. all standing. Which is not what happens, both because parties pick single candidates, and because STV moves votes for loonies like Hanson to the main candidates.

Put it this way, if Shorten is on 31% and Trunbull on 45%, that leaves 24% that in an realistic presidential type race would end up with one or the other - which is what the ReachTel has with them neck and neck. And what that means is they might not love the idea of Shorten, but when compared to Trunbull, they will take him.
People vote by party, agree, but there many parties, not just two. Which is why Newspoll would be given a more accurate picture of the preferred PM.

Given the recent Barnaby thing, which is going to greatly put women off side, todays latest ReachTel poll has actually been good for the LNP.

The LNP are not really good at dishing the dirt like the ALP are, but if they found their straps and decided to keep things like Mediscare, Union corruption, and David Feeney on the table, and in the press like the ALP are good at doing, its game over. The Libs really need a bitch, like the ALP really need Plibersek
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Old Feb 26th 2018, 4:53 am
  #43  
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Default Re: Barnaby Joyce Resigns

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
People vote by party, agree, but there many parties, not just two. Which is why Newspoll would be given a more accurate picture of the preferred PM.
But not an accurate picture of the 2PP...right.
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Old Feb 26th 2018, 5:35 am
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Default Re: Barnaby Joyce Resigns

Originally Posted by bcworld View Post
But not an accurate picture of the 2PP...right.
2PP or PPM. Where do most vote? I would say many vote for the front man, wouldn't you?
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Old Feb 26th 2018, 5:57 am
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Default Re: Barnaby Joyce Resigns

Originally Posted by Beoz View Post
Labor really have no chance while the scumbag is in power. They really need to swap him out for Plibersek now.

I was watching that 60 minutes thing on the NZ PM. Is she a marketing machine or what?

I was thinking though, if Julie Bishop got pregnant, Shorten and his team of clowns would be all over her. "Unfit to be an MP" would be the cry. That's the type of scum tactics Shorten uses. He's got nothing else in the arsenal.
Your over the top bias glaringly obvious as usual. While Shorten, will be few people's favourite to become PM, he is hardly a scumbag. The Lib's have been more than able to self destruct themselves without ALP help, with some appalling policy over recent years. Their complete and utter contempt hasn't, I'm glad to say gone un noticed.
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