quoll

I dunno but at the moment my whacko son is out in the bush, building his house so that when the end of the world as we know it does come he and his family (and he kindly invited us as well - LOL) will have somewhere to live out of the way of the rest of what remains of society and to be self sufficient. Did I say he was whacko????

ozzieeagle

Tell him he has made a glaring error.... He should have built 100 feet underground.

ozzieeagle

Personally speaking, if there is a major fundamentalist shift, which is quite feasible... I reckon the Chinese could be our salvation. The Chinese wont play pretty..

renth

You're not far off the mark. All commodities are going to to through the roof over the next few years. It's already started to happen.

Reason it's all kicking off in the Arab world isn't a sudden love for democracy, it's because food prices have spiraled out of control. Reason for this is an unintended consequence of American quantitative easing.

Next 20 years will be like nothing the world has ever seen - there is a convergence of the bursting of an unsustainable credit bubble, peak oil and massive global population growth.

Disclaimer: Renth is "balls deep" in commodities right now.

If any of you get the chance have a look at this series, it's very enlightening:

Turban Explorer

Yeah but you are right. I've only got my tip in as I didn't recognise a paradigm shift fast enough. There just ain't enough to go round any more....

renth

If you're only getting your tip in, then stick it in rice, it's going to go parabolic.

freebo

Don't get me started Renth however we both know that its not commodities that are soaring, its the value of 'money' which is falling, as predicted by 'conspiracy theorists' and 'tin foil hatters'.

Turban Explorer

Would you bear spread gold and rice?

renth

Ooooh, good question, thing is, I'm a bit too thick to understand options. Keep reading up on all the various plays but either the upside is limited or you risk losing the lot if you write calls.

I really need to spend time studying options more.

Should probably look at them to hedge the portfolio as I understand you can write them off as a capital loss if your options expire worthless.

Turban Explorer

If your 'balls deep' long on the underlying (eg , gold) then maybe grant calls at one technical ceiling against buying a cheap 'well off the money call' on the next big commodity - could be rice. You get the premium on the first and effectively roll into the other without being dangerously 'sack deep'??

renth

Makes sense, I think.

freebo

Any recommendations on an online options trading firm here in Aus, although I may not be able to participate as the company I work for embargo's all kinds of trading.

ozzieeagle

What happens if Australia and Brazil and maybe some other countries, suddenly develop vast amounts of arable land ?

I can see both countries doing this... plus with GM foods, then you can produce far more yield per acre.

So I dont buy the running out of food argument... sure it may get dearer, but that in my view is more to do with India and China becoming wealthier and starting to become more consumer oriented societies.

As for peak oil.... Didnt the Chinese turn Shanghai into an almost 100 pct electric vehicle society within the space of 10 years ?

renth

I use OptionsXpress, in the US. I don't use them for options but for ETFs.

I use OpenEcry for futures.

Turban Explorer

Ig markets do some options. I still use city index in the UK as the vol is greater in London hours