Zen10

South Australia is sitting on oil potentially worth more than $20 trillion, independent reports claim - enough to turn Australia into a self-sufficient fuel producer.

Must be a hell of a lot more out there somewhere as well.


http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/nat...-1226560401043

GarryP

Do you want me to burst bubbles?

Zen10

I know the ups and downs of shale, but I value your opinion, as I have said. Tell you what though - I wouldn't mind you bursting the real estate bubble...

GarryP

OK, well the short version is then - a man with an oil prospect is only marginally more trustworthy and honest than a real estate salesman. PT Barnum would say "Ooo, do you think you can really get away with a lie THAT big".

As for your second point, I refer the honourable gentleman to the answer I gave earlier.

slapphead_otool

I thought the problem with shale oil was the cost of conversion, and that it was accepted that sooner or later the price of oil would make shale oil extraction economic.

Am i wrong?

Zen10

I read somewhere that for every 100 tons of shale you get 3 tons of oil, which has got to be pretty pricey, but then if that's the only source of oil one day...

GarryP

Normal oil fields are where the rock is permeable, but is capped by a dome of impermeable rock. All the oil collects over geologic timescales, ready for your oilman to stick a straw into it.

Tight Oil (which is what they are talking about when they mention fracking) is when the rock isn't permeable, so the oil gets stuck where its created. As you can imagine, there are wide areas of the world with such circumstances.

People have known since the 1960s how to use explosions and high pressure liquid to break apart such areas of rock underground, allowing some oil to flow out. But its expensive since you are having to do the job nature does for you on conventional fields, and because it doesn't take long for the flow to stop (because the rock isn't permeable, natch).

Not all tight oil fields are equal.

Fairly obviously there are areas where lots of oil was created and trapped, and areas where little was. So just saying there is oil means **** all.

For the high quality fields, the current price is *just* about enough to make money off drill the prospects. You can be fairly certain of getting something, but it can be touch and go if the density of oil means you will get out more money that you put in. These wells tend to die in 1-2 years.

So, as the price goes up you can move down the quality spectrum - but doing so means less oil from each well, so you need more wells drilled, more often, to keep up a flow rate (its a red queen race).

This PR release says basically *** all and is there to reap money from gullible fools in Oz/China with dollar signs in their eyes. Actually the best prospects in Oz are thought to be in QLD.

GarryP

Different type of 'shale' oil - more the Alberta type. They use the term to apply to at least three different types of field - as I said, real estate level of lying.

Zen10

Made Linc shares jump though Australia remains in a relatively strong position here though because as far as I know it is still one of the few OECD that net exports hydrocarbons. Crude oil is the problem. The bulk of it is off WA, Vic and NT but it's running out fast. Bottom line is humans use too much oil because the economic system demands constant growth or there will be collapse.

GarryP

Nope, Australia imports half its oil demand. Its never really been a net oil exporter. Obviously much better off on gas and coal, where it does export.

Zen10

Oil yes, but net exporter of hydrocarbons overall.

slapphead_otool

It would be an interesting exercise to convert each nations imports and exports into a common energy value and compare them.

If I get free time this weekend I will run through the numbers.

Zen10

I am nerdy enough to look forward to that...

GarryP

http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/

They don't have an 'all' option yet, but they do produce figures in Mtoe, so you can manually do it, and I think the BP numbers that this is based on include a total.

Edit, actually, just go to the 'All fuels' tab

lesleys

Thank you, most interesting.