Corona virus

Old Aug 12th 2020, 10:27 am
  #121  
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Default Re: Corona virus

Originally Posted by MikeJ View Post
Politically governments have to be seen to be doing something but a universal lockdown is a blunt instrument and has lots of unwelcome side effects. Stopping all human interactions to stop the virus will devastate the economy.
Trying to eradicate the virus is a non-starter, that horse was long gone by the time the pandemic was declared. The virus does not want to kill its hosts, that would be stupid, but we do need to create a modus-vivendi with it - so called herd immunity. The vulnerable should be protected, ie shielded, but the younger generation who are not overly effect by the virus, should be encouraged rather than discouraged to spread the virus as much as possible as long as they don't kill their grandparents by visiting them. Until a safe vaccine is available it is the elderly and vulnerable who need to avoid raves and beach parties until it is safe for us to re-join the herd. Yes, I am a shielder and I hate it but realistically it's the only way the human race will survive.

I could not agree more. The economic (and social) consequences of lock down seems to me to far outweigh the effect of covid itself.
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Old Aug 12th 2020, 11:05 am
  #122  
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There have been regular raves just down from your house on Esuri
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Old Aug 12th 2020, 11:51 am
  #123  
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Default Re: Corona virus

The Junta de Andalucia has a meeting tomorrow to consider the worsening Covid situation and whether to reintroduce some restrictions. These are most likely to be changes to the nimber of people allowed in bars, rsstaurants and clubs.
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Old Aug 12th 2020, 12:49 pm
  #124  
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Default Re: Corona virus

Fortunately we live in an area that up until now has been very protected and avoiding of the virus.

Unfortunately the national government will be planning what steps must be taken if cases continue to rise overall and then what steps to take nationally for Phase 1, 2 and 3 until case levels reduce. The 1st Phase will almost certainly involve closing the border and eliminating regional travel. Being so close to Portugal via the bridge would suck for us.


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Old Aug 12th 2020, 1:27 pm
  #125  
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Default Re: Corona virus

Originally Posted by MikeJ View Post
Politically governments have to be seen to be doing something but a universal lockdown is a blunt instrument and has lots of unwelcome side effects. Stopping all human interactions to stop the virus will devastate the economy.
Trying to eradicate the virus is a non-starter, that horse was long gone by the time the pandemic was declared. The virus does not want to kill its hosts, that would be stupid, but we do need to create a modus-vivendi with it - so called herd immunity. The vulnerable should be protected, ie shielded, but the younger generation who are not overly effect by the virus, should be encouraged rather than discouraged to spread the virus as much as possible as long as they don't kill their grandparents by visiting them. Until a safe vaccine is available it is the elderly and vulnerable who need to avoid raves and beach parties until it is safe for us to re-join the herd. Yes, I am a shielder and I hate it but realistically it's the only way the human race will survive.
The problem with that is younger people can have ongoing brain damage and/or permenant lung damage depending on how the virus effects them. Also young people may have undiagnosed conditions and suffer from diabetes, heart valve problems etc. and would fall into severe ill health even though they survive without dying.
I don't think this is a disease to be messed with. Waiting for a vacination and more important waiting to see scientific proof if there is actually any real immunity would be the best we can do. Cases where people seemed to recover, recaught the virus and then died the second time are being verified. Medical experts really aren't sure about much at this point in time. It is too early to just 'let 'er roll' and encoirage young people to spread the virus. Besides it appears young people don't care much who they give it to, do they?
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Old Aug 13th 2020, 5:39 am
  #126  
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Default Re: Corona virus

A sad part of todays world of social media, state sponsored manipulation and fake news and loss of privacy etc... Is that its hard to know who/what to believe.

Maybe this article is also fake news!! It covers misinformation about a few things from the young to 5g!

Jon

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wa...=mw_quote_news

PS the virus is coming back numbers moving upwards and as of yesterday, here in Brussels face masks are compulsory when stepping out of the front door. Every day I see examples of lack of interest in social distancing.... As if people have forgotten the lessons of lockdown.!!

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Old Aug 13th 2020, 7:42 am
  #127  
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Default Re: Corona virus

Hola

It is obvious that if you stop the full lockdown, then more people will come into contact, and therefore the virus will be caught by more people. I thought that this was their way of managing hospital beds. Further, there have been advances in treating COVID-19 so less hospital beds are needed.
I believe that this virus will be with us for all time rather like the flu and that eventually, when we get a flu jab, we will also get a COVID-19 jab.

But until that time, the number of new infections has to be managed so that everyone who needs it, can have a hospital bed

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Old Aug 13th 2020, 9:27 am
  #128  
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Default Re: Corona virus

Originally Posted by Jon-Bxl View Post
A sad part of todays world of social media, state sponsored manipulation and fake news and loss of privacy etc... Is that its hard to know who/what to believe.

Maybe this article is also fake news!! It covers misinformation about a few things from the young to 5g!

Jon

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wa...=mw_quote_news

PS the virus is coming back numbers moving upwards and as of yesterday, here in Brussels face masks are compulsory when stepping out of the front door. Every day I see examples of lack of interest in social distancing.... As if people have forgotten the lessons of lockdown.!!
This could be a good thing as long as the number of deaths doesn't increase with it. Since the realisation that care homes and accommodation for the elderly are the most likely places where the virus is lethal, a lot more care and effort is being made to protect these places. Paranoiac knee jerk reaction to a modest increase has been a feature of this pandemic. The numbers are bound to go up as testing develops and spreads. Testing is likely to pick up many more low level infections which were unreported in the past. We are never again going to get to zero - we should be getting the numbers down to a similar level to flu etc. We need controls to ensure the virus becomes endemic rather than pandemic. ie herd immunity.
The Sweden case is worth examining. Although they did have a high death rate in care facilities, the measures they have adopted for general application have been much less draconian. They still have social distancing, wearing of mask in certain places etc But they have started building herd immunity and have much more control than many other countries.
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Old Aug 13th 2020, 1:14 pm
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Default Re: Corona virus

Originally Posted by MikeJ View Post
This could be a good thing as long as the number of deaths doesn't increase with it. Since the realisation that care homes and accommodation for the elderly are the most likely places where the virus is lethal, a lot more care and effort is being made to protect these places. Paranoiac knee jerk reaction to a modest increase has been a feature of this pandemic. The numbers are bound to go up as testing develops and spreads. Testing is likely to pick up many more low level infections which were unreported in the past. We are never again going to get to zero - we should be getting the numbers down to a similar level to flu etc. We need controls to ensure the virus becomes endemic rather than pandemic. ie herd immunity.
The Sweden case is worth examining. Although they did have a high death rate in care facilities, the measures they have adopted for general application have been much less draconian. They still have social distancing, wearing of mask in certain places etc But they have started building herd immunity and have much more control than many other countries.
I agree.
Interestingly In the last couple of months over twice the number of deaths in the UK have been flu related when compared with Covid deaths. Why are the papers not scaremongering over that statistic?
On top of that waiting lists/times for life threatening operations are being extended and this will result in a higher death rate in those areas. Again hardly a mention from the papers.
If I didn't know better I'd think the papers had a hidden agenda.


​​​​​​
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Old Aug 14th 2020, 5:01 am
  #130  
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Default Re: Corona virus

Originally Posted by johnnyone View Post
I agree.
Interestingly In the last couple of months over twice the number of deaths in the UK have been flu related when compared with Covid deaths. Why are the papers not scaremongering over that statistic?
On top of that waiting lists/times for life threatening operations are being extended and this will result in a higher death rate in those areas. Again hardly a mention from the papers.
If I didn't know better I'd think the papers had a hidden agenda.


​​​​​​
I woke to find out that countries like France, Monaco and the Netherlands (etc) are suddenly on the quarantine list, on return.

I think we are taking a sledgehammer approach. We have some the worst figures in Europe yet penalise some visitors from countries or regions that are doing better than us. E.g Algarve. I realise that we are on the brink of a second wave, so sometimes measures have to be made...

​​​​​​2 planned holidays this summer have had to be shelved this summer. Due to one of the countries policies.

Other countries take a more nuanced approach. For example one of my holidays is in September to the UK from Belgium. I cant go as the UK want 14 day quarantine. However if I was there, coming back to BE is fine as long as I didn't visit eg Leicester. I doubt that the UK will lift these beforehand but...

Belgium have a far more nuanced approach, impossible to police, but most people will comply.

I got a letter from my medical insurance company saying that my cover ceases if a country goes into a 'red' category even if it wasn't when I left. So how can anyone plan a holiday/trip under these circumstances and under what looks like a second wave with increasing numbers of countries increasing their restrictions?

We hear a lot about testing, the UK have a test that gives results in 30 mins. I would go early to the airport/Eurostar etc. be tested, and if positive go home to quarantine. Every bar + resto here ask contact details so I would happily give details of my movements.

I am free to travel if negative

Of course the symptoms may start soon after the test. . But I must retest in a week (or whatever is appropriate) whether there or back home, if it was a short trip. Likewise giving contact info if positive. The risk I take is that if tested positive if there for a longer trip, then I have to quarantine there as I cant travel positive. I would either take that risk or take a week holiday so that I have returned for test 2.

With a 0.05 -0.06% risk of infection the odds are good.

This won't stop all infections but will certainly reduce them .. and help a suffering economy. And give me a chance of a holiday!

I'm pretty sure some countries will reciprocate now. Also the new countries mentioned at the start have hardly any warning as this comes into place Saturday. Many will plan emergency travel, like the Brits in Spain did recently. Would giving a few days warning be that bad?

The fact is UK travellers should think more than twice before traveling. And read the small print with a magnifying glass on their insurance, re medical, any travel and accomodation ...

Its less strict and more nuanced in Belgium - but this kind of activity is coming from UK national health advice from professionals, and can only add to concerns of traveling. 'If the UK are doing it - maybe theres a reason... '

What a year 2020!!! Perhaps travel concerns to/from 'foreign countries' have been exaggerated. Again at 0.05% - 0.06% infection risk, what does it matter if you take an international plane, boat etc vs a national train, tube, bus etc. Also at these risk levels insurance companies risk assesors can surely come up with policies that make them money!

Jon

PS I heard that the PT government have worked with the insurance companies to create a 'covid-friendly' travel policy to encourage much needed tourism. If so great idea!! Of course I doubt it would include Spain.

Last edited by Jon-Bxl; Aug 14th 2020 at 5:20 am.
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Old Aug 14th 2020, 8:03 am
  #131  
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Default Re: Corona virus

Just watching Grant Schapps. The UK trigger level for international travel control is 20 cases per 100,000 averaged over 7 days. France hit 20.1 so they pulled it! That's 0.02% chance

Denmark's trigger is 50% higher. 30 cases per 100k

Belgium who are prepared to allow regional variations, have an internal trigger level of 50 per 100,000. Our overall average as a country in BE is 32 so we are off the UK exempt list and like Spain + France, and must quarantine when entering the UK. This week Denmark stopped BE travel.

So when Antwerp went over 50 they went into curfew for the first time (in WW2 no curfew!). 2 days ago Brussels touched 50 so masks are compulsory everywhere.

I've looked around but haven't found a list of each countries trigger level. I would like to compare that vs the countries actual level. I would agree to travel bans or quarantine etc if the number in the 'foreign country' is higher than the local number.

Even locally I remember in the UK the locals in beauty spots like Cornwall, Aonb's etc pleaded that tourists from the large UK cities stay there and not bring the virus from the higher % areas to them. The same applies to international travel.

The virus came in from abroad. But now that it has a firm foothold in every country, its too late. We could relook at the strategy re travel and the economic impacts, with a proper strategy re comparative numbers of infection rates

Jon

PS these are cases, not deaths. The death rate is a small percentage of this.

Last edited by Jon-Bxl; Aug 14th 2020 at 8:07 am.
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Old Aug 14th 2020, 9:34 am
  #132  
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Default Re: Corona virus

Originally Posted by Jon-Bxl View Post
Just watching Grant Schapps. The UK trigger level for international travel control is 20 cases per 100,000 averaged over 7 days. France hit 20.1 so they pulled it! That's 0.02% chance

Denmark's trigger is 50% higher. 30 cases per 100k

Belgium who are prepared to allow regional variations, have an internal trigger level of 50 per 100,000. Our overall average as a country in BE is 32 so we are off the UK exempt list and like Spain + France, and must quarantine when entering the UK. This week Denmark stopped BE travel.

So when Antwerp went over 50 they went into curfew for the first time (in WW2 no curfew!). 2 days ago Brussels touched 50 so masks are compulsory everywhere.

I've looked around but haven't found a list of each countries trigger level. I would like to compare that vs the countries actual level. I would agree to travel bans or quarantine etc if the number in the 'foreign country' is higher than the local number.

Even locally I remember in the UK the locals in beauty spots like Cornwall, Aonb's etc pleaded that tourists from the large UK cities stay there and not bring the virus from the higher % areas to them. The same applies to international travel.

The virus came in from abroad. But now that it has a firm foothold in every country, its too late. We could relook at the strategy re travel and the economic impacts, with a proper strategy re comparative numbers of infection rates

Jon

PS these are cases, not deaths. The death rate is a small percentage of this.
You make some very good points Jon.
1. Can I just add to your list of insurances - vehicle insurance. We are booked on a ferry to Santander on 1st September. The ferry will still go so we could travel to Spain at our own risk, and we probably would but all insurances except EHIC will be invalid including car insurance. This would mean that any traffico can stop any car with UK plates and give a slam dunk "no insurance" ticket and hefty fine (in the UK they confiscate the car, not sure about Spain). We could fly I suppose but the current trend in Spain and the rumours are that there could be another lockdown there . Too risky..

2..The number of 'cases' is the wrong measure. Case numbers are bound to go up because of better track and trace and growing self awareness (unfortunately not a common trait in the brits !). The key number is the number of deaths. It may sound a bit morbid but that's really the only relevant number. I know I bang on about herd immunity (supplemented by strategic vaccination) but it is really going to be the new normal in the end. So we need non-lethal cases to go up as it means that immunity is beginning to spread. Trying to stop increase is a bit futile as the genie is well out of the bottle. Mind you I can picture Boris as Canute trying to hold back the tide

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Old Aug 14th 2020, 11:32 am
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Default Re: Corona virus

Originally Posted by MikeJ View Post
The key number is the number of deaths.
Precisely.
Smoking UK 78k deaths last year
Obesity UK 30 k
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Old Aug 14th 2020, 11:59 am
  #134  
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Default Re: Corona virus

Originally Posted by johnnyone View Post
Precisely.
Smoking UK 78k deaths last year
Obesity UK 30 k
A contagion cannot and should not be compared to these illnesses.

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Old Aug 14th 2020, 12:14 pm
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Default Re: Corona virus

Originally Posted by Rosemary View Post
A contagion cannot and should not be compared to these illnesses.

Rosemary
Possibly not but it does put the number of covid deaths in perspective, something that seems to have been ignored by the press.
Smoking and Obesity are not illnesses but lifestyle choices and resources should be spent on education in these areas. There is a strong case to make cigarette smoking illegal. However, as is often the case, too many vested interests for that to happen.
Until such times as a fully tested vaccine is freely available we have got to live with covid. Of course take sensible precautions but we cannot just lock down. That will have far greater consequences on the population.
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