fish.01

I've seen houses taking longer to sell in inner brisbane sometimes but no evidence of price drops.....sadly

brendarover

http://www.chriswilley.co.uk/news2.aspx?id=10070

The UK is teetering on a big bang...........just how long cn they hold out?

Vash the Stampede

paulry

I agree. I predict that the UK property prices will crash in Q1 2011 - as soon as the combined budget cuts and VAT hike takes a firm hold.

Australia? No idea really but I think it will happen sooner or later.

Centurion

It seems that most of the papers this morning agree with you. The uk is now facing double dip with three months of contraction already and 2011 is predicated as being the worst to come after the public sector job losses and increase in vat amongst other austerity measures.

I'd post links but there's about a hundred articles in the same vein.

coolshadows

In the UK, just last month they were reporting a rental shortage... (I wonder if it's still the case?)

Surely with a 'SHORTAGE' + 'DEMAND' scenario - prices can't go down?

ozzieeagle

They've dropped in Melbourne as well, since November 2009, to the tune of about 10 to 15 pct. I dont think hardly anyone has noticed, because all that did was wipe out the previous 3 months rise, prices racing ahead so much during that period. It depends on the starting date of this drop as well. If Melbourne falls another 10 to 15 pct over the next 18months there will be hardly any impact.

So I'd say it's possible.

It's when the next rise is due that really difficult to pick... has to happen. It could be sooner than we think.. Last Quarter 2013 maybe for the next boom.

paulry

Just 6 months ago the local papers had waaaay more rentals being advertised than houses for sale. Now it's all house sales and just a few rentals . These are interesting times.

coolshadows

I suspect that all those 'temporary' landlords are now trying to get out.

paulry

I'm sure you're right. Loads of stampedes going on

ABCDiamond

Good point. With only about 30% of households having mortgages, and many not being the new sizeable mortgages, it is only a small number of people that get really hurt by the rising rates. (Until of course the rates get passed on to tenants in rising rents.)

Something I did notice, back in 1992 when I bought my first Australian house, the average first home buyer had a smaller mortgage than second and subsequent house buyers.
But now in 2010, it has changed round with the first home buyers having the larger mortgages.

ABCDiamond

Spending on Investment Housing for the 12 months ended.

Apr-1998 $1,912,848,000 -7.92%
Apr-1999 $2,099,633,000 +9.76%
Apr-2000 $2,391,365,000 +13.89%
Apr-2001 $2,784,205,000 +16.43%
Apr-2002 $4,328,983,000 +55.48%
Apr-2003 $5,717,588,000 +32.08%
Apr-2004 $5,774,976,000 +1.00%
Apr-2005 $5,956,741,000 +3.15%
Apr-2006 $5,604,144,000 -5.92%
Apr-2007 $6,498,904,000 +15.97%
Apr-2008 $6,754,019,000 +3.93%
Apr-2009 $6,193,500,000 -8.30%
Apr-2010 $7,643,396,000 +23.41%

Zambia

If we settled on a 25% drop across the board in all states as being a pop. I dont see it. So its a no from me.

If we are talking about a drop of 10% well then Q4 2011.

man_called_Horse

I reckon a major drop in house prices will happen when unemployment reaches 8- 9% or interest rates go 10%+

But if there is a pop it will not be uniform across the nation, smaller regional areas would be affected more than the major metro areas.

Metro areas like Sydney will definitely fair better than smaller cities like Perth or Brisbane, and even in Sydney some suburbs will stay pretty much static.

steve_kelly_and_boys

i do not think there will be a pop so to speak

what i do see is more realistic prices which will in effect save you xyz % off of the final price

what i mean by this is when the market was really hot and the property was valued at $500000 for arguments sake

seller tries it on and gets $550000

now that the market is going off the boil seller puts the house up for $500000 and takes $450000

saving of around 20%

not a price crash so to speak more realistic pricing / selling