Centurion

We've had heaps of threads on why Australia's house of cards is going to collapse, but anyone care to name a date ?

I'm going for the 1Q of 2011.

Deancm_MKII

Can's see it happening for the forseable future but it will happen eventually. Far too much demand in the market and very little new land being made available which is artificially keeping demand high.

It will probably happen when interest rates get a bit higher and immigration levels come down.

freebo

I think it'll happen in the next 2 years (by 25%+ in some places) but as for which quater, anyones guess! Still FWIW I had a guess.

Centurion

I think that's the point really, nobody really knows and everyone has their own ideas on what factors will impact on it happening, but guessing when is half the fun. Besides, someone in March 2011 can always drag this thread out and call me a looser for getting it wrong if I am

But then, I guess getting something wrong has never been a prerequisite for being called that, according to my ex wife.

DeadVim

Have they gone up?

jimbo_d

Where's the not in dollar value terms but gradually erroded by stagnent prices and inflation button? Which is the most likely imo

iamthecreaturefromuranus

..and that will be the best possible result.

ABCDiamond

That's the one I would vote for too.

spottydog

me too

coolshadows

I think it will happen sooner rather than later. Interest rates and mortgage availability will be key indicators.

The employment rate may push interest rates up further, and the financial squeeze is being put on banks meaning that mortgages are less lucrative for them (unless the RBA turns a blind eye to them raising their rates against the RBA).

ABCDiamond

That did happen one month, the RBA held the rate even though they considered raising it, but didn't because the banks did it themselves.

ABCDiamond

So far, over 50% reckon the bubble will pop by March 2011, within the next 9 months.

What exactly is the definition of a pop ?

A fall of 5%, 10%, 30%, 60%, 1% ?

Nice read here....
Predicting when the property bubble will pop is bad for your mental health

freebo

Pertinent question, 25% constitues a pop IMHO, and I don't expect it all to occur in the next 9 months. The declines may have begun by then but I'd be amazed if the fall was more than 10% in the next 9 months, perhaps 25% or more over the next 2 years, but its a lottery really.

IMHO the chances of a 25% fall are much greater than a 25% rise, therefore a bad time to enter the market.

coolshadows

It depends on who they feel is the 'threat' - if it's property prices then they'll happily do that. If it's wages, they will likely increase the rates as they will be targeting workers instead (not all of them have a sizable mortgage - so I'm told).

pomtastic

Well, the price drops are starting to happen in Perth and anecdotally, Brisbane, which funnily enough are the resource rich states! There are too many variables to say 'when' as many triggers can and will affect our housing market.

Anyhow, I voted Q1 2011 for across the country although prices drops are happening in Perth, Brisbane, Gold Coast apartments, high end Sydney apartments, top end suburbs all around the country.