|
weak £ vs $ stop people moving to Oz?
the now unbelievable low valued £ may seriously make us consider no longer moving to oz!
Would mean downgrading property or bigger mortgage at higher interest to have same standard of house & lifestyle as in UK and with higher mortgage rates and work opportunities in oz uncertain we now need to decide if this is a good move? That is unless the £ bounces back to say 2.3 to 2.5 in next few months!!!!! Anybody else thinking same? |
Re: weak £ vs $ stop people moving to Oz?
http://britishexpats.com/forum/showt...04#post7544004
Yep, £400k to turn around. I look at it like this; So Today Exchange rate is say 2:1, maybe a tad lower?;) House prices in Oz are very high in relation to earnings So an $800k house is $800k for the money i exchange at 2:1 Say in two or three years; Exchange rate hits 2.5:1 House prices in Oz relax say by 20% So $1 million exchange cash and 800k house only costs me $640k So, in reality i am $360k better off for waiting two years, admit, i have no crystal ball, but i am a gambler, so it just may pay off. That $360k can be spent between today and two or three years time, having fun, so $360k divided by a worsened exchange rate the other way round of 2.5:1 = £140k divided by two years = £70k per year, so i have £70k per year for the next two years to live off and have a good time waiting for things to fall over in my favour and i will be no worse off than exchanging today and buying a house in Australia at todays costs? (three years £47k per year) All in all, i think i am quite conservative with my positive hopefull expectations in my favour? Could go to 2.7:1 and house prices fall 30% in Oz?:D Cheers Its just a very bad time to make the move from the UK to Australia, so maybe best to either sit tight in the UK, or put it offshore, spend some of the capital enjoying yourself in Australia, taking it easy, because you may be no worse off in two or three years time, like above, just my two penneth, but at the end of the day you take your chances and are a long time dead! |
Re: weak £ vs $ stop people moving to Oz?
Originally Posted by suggs
(Post 7556678)
http://britishexpats.com/forum/showt...04#post7544004
Yep, £400k to turn around. I look at it like this; So Today Exchange rate is say 2:1, maybe a tad lower?;) House prices in Oz are very high in relation to earnings So an $800k house is $800k for the money i exchange at 2:1 Say in two or three years; Exchange rate hits 2.5:1 House prices in Oz relax say by 20% So $1 million exchange cash and 800k house only costs me $640k So, in reality i am $360k better off for waiting two years, admit, i have no crystal ball, but i am a gambler, so it just may pay off. That $360k can be spent between today and two or three years time, having fun, so $360k divided by a worsened exchange rate the other way round of 2.5:1 = £140k divided by two years = £70k per year, so i have £70k per year for the next two years to live off and have a good time waiting for things to fall over in my favour and i will be no worse off than exchanging today and buying a house in Australia at todays costs? (three years £47k per year) All in all, i think i am quite conservative with my positive hopefull expectations in my favour? Could go to 2.7:1 and house prices fall 30% in Oz?:D Cheers Its just a very bad time to make the move from the UK to Australia, so maybe best to either sit tight in the UK, or put it offshore, spend some of the capital enjoying yourself in Australia, taking it easy, because you may be no worse off in two or three years time, like above, just my two penneth, but at the end of the day you take your chances and are a long time dead! |
Re: weak £ vs $ stop people moving to Oz?
Originally Posted by MrCro
(Post 7556643)
the now unbelievable low valued £ may seriously make us consider no longer moving to oz!
Would mean downgrading property or bigger mortgage at higher interest to have same standard of house & lifestyle as in UK and with higher mortgage rates and work opportunities in oz uncertain we now need to decide if this is a good move? That is unless the £ bounces back to say 2.3 to 2.5 in next few months!!!!! Anybody else thinking same? Just get ya £'s and change it for dollars when its time to move and put it in a interst account in aus! You cant always have ya cake and eat it;) You either wanna enjoy life and take whatever financial knock comes ya way or stay safe and stay where you are? We persoanlly have had enough of paying shit loads of mortgage and not making money on the houses like peeps used to do,so cant wait to get my house sold and put a little money in the bank and rent with no ties:D |
Re: weak £ vs $ stop people moving to Oz?
Originally Posted by Australia_bound?
(Post 7556757)
Or exchange rate get worse, house prices in aus stay the same and you've gained nowt ;)
Had a good time though, still go to Oz, not done a days work, and the missus still works, i have gained an awfull lot me thinks?:thumbup: |
Re: weak £ vs $ stop people moving to Oz?
House prices wont decline.
Exchange rate will get worse before it gets better. Then in 2 years will bounce back just like the mining boom and oil & gas. £400k wont be that much then. |
Re: weak £ vs $ stop people moving to Oz?
just look at the charts for the last 7yrs.......and i keep saying it .....theirs only one way the pounds been going against the $ and thats down....!
and if you think printing currency you haven't got is going to strengthen the pound your kidding your self.....it usually means diluting the currency. don't mean to offend.....just being realistic......all the best plumb...:unsure: |
Re: weak £ vs $ stop people moving to Oz?
Originally Posted by the plumber
(Post 7557824)
just look at the charts for the last 7yrs.......and i keep saying it .....theirs only one way the pounds been going against the $ and thats down....!
and if you think printing currency you haven't got is going to strengthen the pound your kidding your self.....it usually means diluting the currency. don't mean to offend.....just being realistic......all the best plumb...:unsure: Hello Plumb, Just a little help out here, by printing money, the UK Gov are not busy there with the inkjet, printing all these billions and billions of hard cash, then knocking on peoples doors and handing everyone a piece of this, nor is this printed money finding its way into the paypackets of my missus and all unsundry. So no it is not diluting our glorious currency, nor is it inflationary. What it is doing is Using the printed money to buy up gilts, by this the BOE increases their price, which makes them less attractive because they yeild less. Therefore they are cheaper to service for the government. However because this process is deemed inflationary investors want better yeilds or index-linking. This has caused the process to be less effective than hoped. Also many of the previous gilt owners were foreign investors and this is a golden chance to sell at a good price. So the printed money is going abroad, its just a crafty way of keeping interest rates down, but also allowing the indebted .i.e. the Gov, makes it easier and cheaper for them to service the huge mountain of debt. The reason the exchange rate is poor, is our economy is on its knees, its deficits are huge, until they come under some sort of control, i.e. taxes must go up, then our currency will suffer. But anyone stating 400k will be nowt in two years clearly doe not understand inflation. Central bankers only worry about one kind of inflation, and that is wage inflation, because for the past ten years here in the UK, we have all been getting poorer, while assets rise, wages have fallen back. So now they call a deflationary slump, only because we are alll taking wage cuts, and unemployment is rising. Wages are falling, houses are falling, big ticket items are falling, but essentials are rising. Cost inflation of food, energy are rising. I am a gambler, just my opinion, but for now, and for the next few years until we start to see wages rise above essentials cost inflation, we will also see taxes rise, cash is king and will be for quite some time. As cash only reduces in value against the inflationary item or commodity you intend to purchase, and we all know certain items have peaked. I do not think things for the UK based migrator could be any worse, it may get a bit worse, exchange rate etc, but not alot. House will not inflate anymore in Australia, but may stagnate. So for me, a two or three year wait while spending a few quid is a dead cert, and if in two or three years the exchange rate is still below 2.5:1, and house prices are still way above long term trend. Then i will just have to stay in good old blighty, because house here are dropping, and people really do not have alot of cash, so bargains are there for the taking if you are will to do your homework. Cheers, Suggs. |
Re: weak £ vs $ stop people moving to Oz?
Originally Posted by suggs
(Post 7558208)
Hello Plumb,
Just a little help out here, by printing money, the UK Gov are not busy there with the inkjet, printing all these billions and billions of hard cash, then knocking on peoples doors and handing everyone a piece of this, nor is this printed money finding its way into the paypackets of my missus and all unsundry. So no it is not diluting our glorious currency, nor is it inflationary. What it is doing is Using the printed money to buy up gilts, by this the BOE increases their price, which makes them less attractive because they yeild less. Therefore they are cheaper to service for the government. However because this process is deemed inflationary investors want better yeilds or index-linking. This has caused the process to be less effective than hoped. Also many of the previous gilt owners were foreign investors and this is a golden chance to sell at a good price. So the printed money is going abroad, its just a crafty way of keeping interest rates down, but also allowing the indebted .i.e. the Gov, makes it easier and cheaper for them to service the huge mountain of debt. The reason the exchange rate is poor, is our economy is on its knees, its deficits are huge, until they come under some sort of control, i.e. taxes must go up, then our currency will suffer. But anyone stating 400k will be nowt in two years clearly doe not understand inflation. Central bankers only worry about one kind of inflation, and that is wage inflation, because for the past ten years here in the UK, we have all been getting poorer, while assets rise, wages have fallen back. So now they call a deflationary slump, only because we are alll taking wage cuts, and unemployment is rising. Wages are falling, houses are falling, big ticket items are falling, but essentials are rising. Cost inflation of food, energy are rising. I am a gambler, just my opinion, but for now, and for the next few years until we start to see wages rise above essentials cost inflation, we will also see taxes rise, cash is king and will be for quite some time. As cash only reduces in value against the inflationary item or commodity you intend to purchase, and we all know certain items have peaked. I do not think things for the UK based migrator could be any worse, it may get a bit worse, exchange rate etc, but not alot. House will not inflate anymore in Australia, but may stagnate. So for me, a two or three year wait while spending a few quid is a dead cert, and if in two or three years the exchange rate is still below 2.5:1, and house prices are still way above long term trend. Then i will just have to stay in good old blighty, because house here are dropping, and people really do not have alot of cash, so bargains are there for the taking if you are will to do your homework. Cheers, Suggs. |
Re: weak £ vs $ stop people moving to Oz?
Hey suggs, I am absolutely broke, probably by a normal 4x2 in perthtopia in an average suburb, but believe me, Id rather be here enjoying myself with the sunshine shiela's than counting my pennys in the slumland....
Your quite a savvy guy no doubt about that, but does money really mean that much too you... My parents and my inlaws, worked their arse off for a retirement, and guess what, they cant retire now, and given their sixty, they cant be bothered doing the things they wanted to. Maybe youth is wasted on the young, but isnt money wasted on the old.......... With your cash that you spouted about, you can buy a nice place, 4wd, ski, and boat live on the coast and work part time, earning plenty of cash what are you waiting for....................... and when your bored take a interstate trip or now asian airlines are throwing flights about, go to BALI for next to nothing...
Originally Posted by suggs
(Post 7558208)
Hello Plumb,
Just a little help out here, by printing money, the UK Gov are not busy there with the inkjet, printing all these billions and billions of hard cash, then knocking on peoples doors and handing everyone a piece of this, nor is this printed money finding its way into the paypackets of my missus and all unsundry. So no it is not diluting our glorious currency, nor is it inflationary. What it is doing is Using the printed money to buy up gilts, by this the BOE increases their price, which makes them less attractive because they yeild less. Therefore they are cheaper to service for the government. However because this process is deemed inflationary investors want better yeilds or index-linking. This has caused the process to be less effective than hoped. Also many of the previous gilt owners were foreign investors and this is a golden chance to sell at a good price. So the printed money is going abroad, its just a crafty way of keeping interest rates down, but also allowing the indebted .i.e. the Gov, makes it easier and cheaper for them to service the huge mountain of debt. The reason the exchange rate is poor, is our economy is on its knees, its deficits are huge, until they come under some sort of control, i.e. taxes must go up, then our currency will suffer. But anyone stating 400k will be nowt in two years clearly doe not understand inflation. Central bankers only worry about one kind of inflation, and that is wage inflation, because for the past ten years here in the UK, we have all been getting poorer, while assets rise, wages have fallen back. So now they call a deflationary slump, only because we are alll taking wage cuts, and unemployment is rising. Wages are falling, houses are falling, big ticket items are falling, but essentials are rising. Cost inflation of food, energy are rising. I am a gambler, just my opinion, but for now, and for the next few years until we start to see wages rise above essentials cost inflation, we will also see taxes rise, cash is king and will be for quite some time. As cash only reduces in value against the inflationary item or commodity you intend to purchase, and we all know certain items have peaked. I do not think things for the UK based migrator could be any worse, it may get a bit worse, exchange rate etc, but not alot. House will not inflate anymore in Australia, but may stagnate. So for me, a two or three year wait while spending a few quid is a dead cert, and if in two or three years the exchange rate is still below 2.5:1, and house prices are still way above long term trend. Then i will just have to stay in good old blighty, because house here are dropping, and people really do not have alot of cash, so bargains are there for the taking if you are will to do your homework. Cheers, Suggs. |
Re: weak £ vs $ stop people moving to Oz?
Originally Posted by La Vida loca
(Post 7558331)
Hey suggs, I am absolutely broke, probably by a normal 4x2 in perthtopia in an average suburb, but believe me, Id rather be here enjoying myself with the sunshine shiela's than counting my pennys in the slumland....
Your quite a savvy guy no doubt about that, but does money really mean that much too you... My parents and my inlaws, worked their arse off for a retirement, and guess what, they cant retire now, and given their sixty, they cant be bothered doing the things they wanted to. Maybe youth is wasted on the young, but isnt money wasted on the old.......... With your cash that you spouted about, you can buy a nice place, 4wd, ski, and boat live on the coast and work part time, earning plenty of cash what are you waiting for....................... and when your bored take a interstate trip or now asian airlines are throwing flights about, go to BALI for next to nothing... Good honest post, do not disagree, karma's sent, good luck mate!;) |
Re: weak £ vs $ stop people moving to Oz?
Originally Posted by Catch
(Post 7558329)
by god you sound a clever chap, got to agree though
|
Re: weak £ vs $ stop people moving to Oz?
For what it's worth St George Forecast for exchange rates:
---------Jun-09=Sep-09=Dec-09=Mar-10=Jun-10 AUD-GBP 0.4830=0.4970=0.5170=0.5170=0.5160 Things a bit worse or better depending on your perspective. Source: http://stgeorge.com.au/resources/sgb...ok_20Apr09.pdf - April 2009 |
Re: weak £ vs $ stop people moving to Oz?
You can open an account with Westpac in UK pounds and keep it that way until you want to exchange it or change some of it as you need it. I live in Oz and have been coming and going for over 20 years and during that time the exchange rate was as low as 1.88 to the pound and got to nearly 3.00 to the pound. It will come up again but dont know when.
Anyone that thinks house prices in Oz are going to shoot up need to carry on dreaming. Do your sums and work out average wages to average house price then try to work out where the next lot of buyers are going to come from if house prices do rise. Its not from UK migrants.....not from rich Sydney residents.....count the businesses of any town and that the amount of rich people in the town.....all house prices are still too high, may stagnate but I reckon another few percent to drop yet. |
Re: weak £ vs $ stop people moving to Oz?
Originally Posted by harrip
(Post 7558408)
For what it's worth St George Forecast for exchange rates:
---------Jun-09=Sep-09=Dec-09=Mar-10=Jun-10 AUD-GBP 0.4830=0.4970=0.5170=0.5170=0.5160 Things a bit worse or better depending on your perspective. Source: http://stgeorge.com.au/resources/sgb...ok_20Apr09.pdf - April 2009 |
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