Unemployment Rate April 2009
May 7th 2009, 1:32 am
#1
Guest
Posts: n/a
Unemployment Rate April 2009
Unemployment Rate April 2009
TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)
EMPLOYMENT decreased to 10,790,600
UNEMPLOYMENT increased to 630,800
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE increased to 5.5%
PARTICIPATION RATE increased to 65.5%
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.4%. The male unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.5%, and the female unemployment rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 5.3%.
TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)
EMPLOYMENT decreased to 10,790,600
UNEMPLOYMENT increased to 630,800
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE increased to 5.5%
PARTICIPATION RATE increased to 65.5%
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.4%. The male unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.5%, and the female unemployment rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 5.3%.
May 7th 2009, 1:39 am
#2
(It's not my real name)
Joined: Sep 2002
Location: Ilukapool. WA
Posts: 12,467
Re: Unemployment Rate April 2009
Amazing, unemployment down, who'd have thunk it?
May 7th 2009, 2:30 am
#3
Forum Regular
Joined: Jan 2008
Location: Perth NOR
Posts: 242
Re: Unemployment Rate April 2009
I'm flabbergasted. Overall trend is still up on unemployment though.
Time to lock in those low mortgage rates then?
Time to lock in those low mortgage rates then?
May 7th 2009, 2:50 am
#4
Proudly Deplorable
Joined: May 2003
Location: Alloha snack bar
Posts: 24,246
Re: Unemployment Rate April 2009
The AUD has liked this news - it's now 2.0081 to the GBP.
Same for the ASX.
Same for the ASX.
May 7th 2009, 3:40 am
#5
Forum Regular
Joined: Jan 2008
Location: Perth NOR
Posts: 242
Re: Unemployment Rate April 2009
Fairy Tale Jobless Figure
The April job numbers are spurred a market rally today, but they are fantastic, literally.
Economists had predicted that employment fell by about 25,000 in the month, with the risk to that forecast being on the downside. Instead, it rose by 27,300, with the number of full-time workers rising by 49,100.
The result was a decline in unemployment, from 5.4% from 5.7% in March. The markets had expected the unemployment rate to rise to almost 6%, a whistle-stop on its way to at least 7%, and probably 8% as the recession unfolds.
So who has got it wrong? Almost certainly, the Australian Bureau of Statistics has. Companies are still closing down and shedding jobs in this dowturn, no doubt.
As Morgan Stanley economist Gerard Minack said after the numbers came out:
''Know anyone unemployed who's got a job lately? Heard of any firms adding to their workforce? In short, have you heard or seen a single good thing about the labour market over the past few months?''
The markets are beginning to believe that an end to the slump is in sight, but it's still about a year away, and jobs are just about the last economic indicator to turn.
The April jobs numbers are wrong. The downturn has more to go, and the jobless rate is going to rise: expect the impossibly optimistic employment picture painted by today's statistics to be revised in a month's time.
[email protected]
The Age
The April job numbers are spurred a market rally today, but they are fantastic, literally.
Economists had predicted that employment fell by about 25,000 in the month, with the risk to that forecast being on the downside. Instead, it rose by 27,300, with the number of full-time workers rising by 49,100.
The result was a decline in unemployment, from 5.4% from 5.7% in March. The markets had expected the unemployment rate to rise to almost 6%, a whistle-stop on its way to at least 7%, and probably 8% as the recession unfolds.
So who has got it wrong? Almost certainly, the Australian Bureau of Statistics has. Companies are still closing down and shedding jobs in this dowturn, no doubt.
As Morgan Stanley economist Gerard Minack said after the numbers came out:
''Know anyone unemployed who's got a job lately? Heard of any firms adding to their workforce? In short, have you heard or seen a single good thing about the labour market over the past few months?''
The markets are beginning to believe that an end to the slump is in sight, but it's still about a year away, and jobs are just about the last economic indicator to turn.
The April jobs numbers are wrong. The downturn has more to go, and the jobless rate is going to rise: expect the impossibly optimistic employment picture painted by today's statistics to be revised in a month's time.
[email protected]
The Age
May 7th 2009, 3:42 am
#6
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 9,397
Re: Unemployment Rate April 2009
Unemployment Rate April 2009
TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)
EMPLOYMENT decreased to 10,790,600
UNEMPLOYMENT increased to 630,800
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE increased to 5.5%
PARTICIPATION RATE increased to 65.5%
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.4%. The male unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.5%, and the female unemployment rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 5.3%.
TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)
EMPLOYMENT decreased to 10,790,600
UNEMPLOYMENT increased to 630,800
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE increased to 5.5%
PARTICIPATION RATE increased to 65.5%
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.4%. The male unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.5%, and the female unemployment rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 5.3%.
Why not always just quote the actual figures, add a footnote saying why seasonal factors might come into play and let us make up our own minds?
"Seasonally adjusted" figures are basically meaningless, IMO, except to statisticians.
Last edited by Wol; May 7th 2009 at 3:50 am.
May 7th 2009, 3:48 am
#7
Joined: Jun 2006
Posts: 4,555
Re: Unemployment Rate April 2009
Great new and hopefully not an aberration but as stated below all other indicators indicate this as a blip.
http://britishexpats.com/forum/newre...te=1&p=7548148
http://britishexpats.com/forum/newre...te=1&p=7548148
Westpac senior economist Anthony Thompson said today’s figures were "statistical noise" in line with what the rest of the job market is doing.
"Smoothing through the noise you’ll see the labour market has not turned … every other lead indicator is pointing to a decline well into 2010," Mr Thompson said.
"Don’t put too much faith in this month’s data."
Macquarie Group senior economist Brian Redican said while the jobs report was "extraordinarily strong'', he described it as a "one-off aberration'' and expected to see a further deterioration in the months ahead.
"We've seen no signs of any significant improvement in things like jobs advertisements or job vacancies, and hiring intentions in the business surveys still remain very weak,'' Mr Redican said.
"Smoothing through the noise you’ll see the labour market has not turned … every other lead indicator is pointing to a decline well into 2010," Mr Thompson said.
"Don’t put too much faith in this month’s data."
Macquarie Group senior economist Brian Redican said while the jobs report was "extraordinarily strong'', he described it as a "one-off aberration'' and expected to see a further deterioration in the months ahead.
"We've seen no signs of any significant improvement in things like jobs advertisements or job vacancies, and hiring intentions in the business surveys still remain very weak,'' Mr Redican said.
May 7th 2009, 4:57 am
#8
Proudly Deplorable
Joined: May 2003
Location: Alloha snack bar
Posts: 24,246
Re: Unemployment Rate April 2009
Fairy Tale Jobless Figure
The April job numbers are spurred a market rally today, but they are fantastic, literally.
Economists had predicted that employment fell by about 25,000 in the month, with the risk to that forecast being on the downside. Instead, it rose by 27,300, with the number of full-time workers rising by 49,100.
The result was a decline in unemployment, from 5.4% from 5.7% in March. The markets had expected the unemployment rate to rise to almost 6%, a whistle-stop on its way to at least 7%, and probably 8% as the recession unfolds.
So who has got it wrong? Almost certainly, the Australian Bureau of Statistics has. Companies are still closing down and shedding jobs in this dowturn, no doubt.
As Morgan Stanley economist Gerard Minack said after the numbers came out:
''Know anyone unemployed who's got a job lately? Heard of any firms adding to their workforce? In short, have you heard or seen a single good thing about the labour market over the past few months?''
The markets are beginning to believe that an end to the slump is in sight, but it's still about a year away, and jobs are just about the last economic indicator to turn.
The April jobs numbers are wrong. The downturn has more to go, and the jobless rate is going to rise: expect the impossibly optimistic employment picture painted by today's statistics to be revised in a month's time.
[email protected]
The Age
The April job numbers are spurred a market rally today, but they are fantastic, literally.
Economists had predicted that employment fell by about 25,000 in the month, with the risk to that forecast being on the downside. Instead, it rose by 27,300, with the number of full-time workers rising by 49,100.
The result was a decline in unemployment, from 5.4% from 5.7% in March. The markets had expected the unemployment rate to rise to almost 6%, a whistle-stop on its way to at least 7%, and probably 8% as the recession unfolds.
So who has got it wrong? Almost certainly, the Australian Bureau of Statistics has. Companies are still closing down and shedding jobs in this dowturn, no doubt.
As Morgan Stanley economist Gerard Minack said after the numbers came out:
''Know anyone unemployed who's got a job lately? Heard of any firms adding to their workforce? In short, have you heard or seen a single good thing about the labour market over the past few months?''
The markets are beginning to believe that an end to the slump is in sight, but it's still about a year away, and jobs are just about the last economic indicator to turn.
The April jobs numbers are wrong. The downturn has more to go, and the jobless rate is going to rise: expect the impossibly optimistic employment picture painted by today's statistics to be revised in a month's time.
[email protected]
The Age
May 7th 2009, 4:58 am
#9
Proudly Deplorable
Joined: May 2003
Location: Alloha snack bar
Posts: 24,246
Re: Unemployment Rate April 2009
Seasonally adjusted: universally used weasel-words!
Why not always just quote the actual figures, add a footnote saying why seasonal factors might come into play and let us make up our own minds?
"Seasonally adjusted" figures are basically meaningless, IMO, except to statisticians.
Why not always just quote the actual figures, add a footnote saying why seasonal factors might come into play and let us make up our own minds?
"Seasonally adjusted" figures are basically meaningless, IMO, except to statisticians.
May 7th 2009, 5:18 am
#10
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Mar 2003
Posts: 9,397
Re: Unemployment Rate April 2009
To me it's ridiculous when unemployment for example goes up and they say that the seasonally adjusted figures are down. To make any sense out of *that* number you'd need reams of other figures and even than you could put any interpretation on it because the "seasonal adjustments" might not apply because the circumstances are changing. Oh well....
May 7th 2009, 5:49 am
#11
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Sep 2004
Location: London - but only until I can afford to move back to Sydney
Posts: 938
Re: Unemployment Rate April 2009
Well if those that lost jobs in finance and the mining sector on $100K+ salaries founds jobs in McDonalds on substantially less the news isn't entirly good in spite of the headline reduction in unemployment.
May 7th 2009, 5:54 am
#12
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: Unemployment Rate April 2009
Seasonally adjusted: universally used weasel-words!
Why not always just quote the actual figures, add a footnote saying why seasonal factors might come into play and let us make up our own minds?
"Seasonally adjusted" figures are basically meaningless, IMO, except to statisticians.
Why not always just quote the actual figures, add a footnote saying why seasonal factors might come into play and let us make up our own minds?
"Seasonally adjusted" figures are basically meaningless, IMO, except to statisticians.
I once quoted the original figures, and got hammered for not quoting trend, so I then quoted trend figures, and got hammered for not quoting seasonally adjusted... I now quote Trend and Seasonally adjusted, and ... 
Personally I prefer Original aswell
Unemployed - looking for full-time work ; Persons ;
482,100 6.0% Mar-2009
460,200 5.7% Apr-2009
Employed - full-time ; Persons ;
7,574,500 Mar-2009
7,611,500 Apr-2009
= 37,000 more people in full time work
and
21,900 less unemployed looking for full time work.
Last edited by ABCDiamond; May 7th 2009 at 5:56 am.
May 7th 2009, 6:29 am
#13
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: Unemployment Rate April 2009
State figures, using "original" numbers for unemployed Full Time...
NT, ACT & Tasmania have got worse, whilst VIC, WA, SA and NSW have got better.
But, using these 'actual' numbers only, 3% are unemployed in ACT, compared to 6.5% in NSW.
HTML Code:
Apr Mar 5.6% 6.1% VIC 4.6% 5.1% WA 5.6% 5.9% SA 6.5% 6.8% NSW 5.6% 5.6% QLD - No change 5.0% 4.6% NT 3.0% 2.5% ACT 5.4% 4.9% TAS
But, using these 'actual' numbers only, 3% are unemployed in ACT, compared to 6.5% in NSW.
May 7th 2009, 10:43 am
#14
Guest
Posts: n/a
Re: Unemployment Rate April 2009
If anyone is in any doubt of the final direction of unemployment, have a look at these figures for the last 30 years.
The graph charts the original numbers of Full Time unemployment for APRIL each year, so no need for trends or seasonal adjustment.
Note how the last 5 years, being UNDER 6%, has been the anomaly, and returning to the above 6% rate would actually be returning to normal.
The average from 1978 to 2009, using only APRIL rates, has been 7.43%
The graph charts the original numbers of Full Time unemployment for APRIL each year, so no need for trends or seasonal adjustment.
Note how the last 5 years, being UNDER 6%, has been the anomaly, and returning to the above 6% rate would actually be returning to normal.
The average from 1978 to 2009, using only APRIL rates, has been 7.43%
May 7th 2009, 1:11 pm
#15
Lost in BE Cyberspace
Joined: Jun 2007
Location: Tropical North QLD
Posts: 21,434
Re: Unemployment Rate April 2009
And how many more are doing govt sponsored ''training''????
