UK housing market - rumours of its death greatly exaggerated?
Oct 19th 2004, 6:45 pm
#31
Banned
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 7,613
Re: UK housing market - rumours of its death greatly exaggerated?
Quite a few heads in the sand, here. 
From your truck driving description, Mike, I guessed your job involved trying to get the real data, to look at situations not just on the basis of WYSIWYG but WYSINAWYG, to take nothing at face value.
I am sadly disappointed. To congratulate Dutch on his statement "However you define it, in the UK we now have the lowest unemployment for a generation" shows no critical facility at all.
Official unemployment (1.4 m) + extra people (1.1 m) on disability benefit since '94 = 2.5 million unemployed which is not significantly different to unemployment in 1990 (last crash).
Perhaps you accept that a lot of people hurt their backs in the last few years...hmm, let me see, that's about 1 person in 20 of the working population has had a bad back problem in the last 10 years necessitating their withdrawal from the working population.
Yeah, right.
From your truck driving description, Mike, I guessed your job involved trying to get the real data, to look at situations not just on the basis of WYSIWYG but WYSINAWYG, to take nothing at face value.
I am sadly disappointed. To congratulate Dutch on his statement "However you define it, in the UK we now have the lowest unemployment for a generation" shows no critical facility at all.
Official unemployment (1.4 m) + extra people (1.1 m) on disability benefit since '94 = 2.5 million unemployed which is not significantly different to unemployment in 1990 (last crash).
Perhaps you accept that a lot of people hurt their backs in the last few years...hmm, let me see, that's about 1 person in 20 of the working population has had a bad back problem in the last 10 years necessitating their withdrawal from the working population.
Yeah, right.
Oct 20th 2004, 10:26 am
#32
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Joined: Jun 2004
Location: stafford, uk
Posts: 26
Re: UK housing market - rumours of its death greatly exaggerated?
Originally Posted by Don
Quite a few heads in the sand, here.
I am sadly disappointed. To congratulate Dutch on his statement "However you define it, in the UK we now have the lowest unemployment for a generation" shows no critical facility at all.
Official unemployment (1.4 m) + extra people (1.1 m) on disability benefit since '94 = 2.5 million unemployed which is not significantly different to unemployment in 1990 (last crash).
I am sadly disappointed. To congratulate Dutch on his statement "However you define it, in the UK we now have the lowest unemployment for a generation" shows no critical facility at all.
Official unemployment (1.4 m) + extra people (1.1 m) on disability benefit since '94 = 2.5 million unemployed which is not significantly different to unemployment in 1990 (last crash).
this is my last post on the the subject, as its obviously starting to get personal. I do apologise for trying to give the impression to worried housesellers that things may not be as bad as the Daily Express would have you believe.
I believe I stated from the start that this is my opinion and you could accept or ignore it as you choose. I also backed this up with the opinion of 'respected' institutions such as the OECD etc. who shared this analysis.
Finally, I am not so much 'disappointed' as 'amazed' at Don's quote (although I admit this may be due to my lack of a critical facility).
He would appear to be suggesting that if you add those individuals currently claiming disability benefit (1.1m) to the internationally recognised unemployment rate (1.4m) that this is comparable to the unemployment rate in 1990 (2.85m). Erm...I might be a bit slow here, but shouldn't you be adding the disability claimants for 1990 to the 2.85m? The Tories wern't slow to use this trick as well.
The figure took a bit of finding, but turned up in Hansard as a reply to a question from Ian Duncan-Smith (first time I've felt the inclination to thank him!) and the figure was....... 1.1m.
http://www.parliament.the-stationery...t/80602w11.htm
Note 22.
Best of luck house sellers
Dave
Oct 20th 2004, 10:36 am
#33
Banned
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 7,613
Re: UK housing market - rumours of its death greatly exaggerated?
Originally Posted by dutch
Finally, I am not so much 'disappointed' as 'amazed' at Don's quote (although I admit this may be due to my lack of a critical facility).
He would appear to be suggesting that if you add those individuals currently claiming disability benefit (1.1m) to the internationally recognised unemployment rate (1.4m) that this is comparable to the unemployment rate in 1990 (2.85m). Erm...I might be a bit slow here, but shouldn't you be adding the disability claimants for 1990 to the 2.85m? The Tories wern't slow to use this trick as well.
The figure took a bit of finding, but turned up in Hansard as a reply to a question from Ian Duncan-Smith (first time I've felt the inclination to thank him!) and the figure was....... 1.1m.
http://www.parliament.the-stationery...t/80602w11.htm
Note 22.
Best of luck house sellers
Dave
He would appear to be suggesting that if you add those individuals currently claiming disability benefit (1.1m) to the internationally recognised unemployment rate (1.4m) that this is comparable to the unemployment rate in 1990 (2.85m). Erm...I might be a bit slow here, but shouldn't you be adding the disability claimants for 1990 to the 2.85m? The Tories wern't slow to use this trick as well.
The figure took a bit of finding, but turned up in Hansard as a reply to a question from Ian Duncan-Smith (first time I've felt the inclination to thank him!) and the figure was....... 1.1m.
http://www.parliament.the-stationery...t/80602w11.htm
Note 22.
Best of luck house sellers
Dave
Get it now?
Oct 20th 2004, 3:57 pm
#34
BE Forum Addict
Joined: Jan 2004
Location: Far away from canned Oz
Posts: 1,833
Re: UK housing market - rumours of its death greatly exaggerated?
Originally Posted by Don
Quite a few heads in the sand, here.
From your truck driving description, Mike, I guessed your job involved trying to get the real data, to look at situations not just on the basis of WYSIWYG but WYSINAWYG, to take nothing at face value.
I am sadly disappointed. To congratulate Dutch on his statement "However you define it, in the UK we now have the lowest unemployment for a generation" shows no critical facility at all.
From your truck driving description, Mike, I guessed your job involved trying to get the real data, to look at situations not just on the basis of WYSIWYG but WYSINAWYG, to take nothing at face value.
I am sadly disappointed. To congratulate Dutch on his statement "However you define it, in the UK we now have the lowest unemployment for a generation" shows no critical facility at all.
un)employment are largely irrelevant to whether UK is likely to suffer a housing crash. But, here's an offer for you. If you're around in London at the end of next month, I can squeeze you in to a strategy meeting. There, you can expound your views and the likely impact on the UK economy to a group of market strategists and analysts. It should be highly entertaining.
Oct 20th 2004, 4:09 pm
#35
Banned
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 7,613
Re: UK housing market - rumours of its death greatly exaggerated?
You could be right about unemployment not being that important.
Thank for the invite.
BTW probably many or most of the extra 1.1 million on disability (or similar) benefit are working illicitly and contributing to the economy. IMO.
As far as their bad backs allow them, of course.
Thank for the invite.
BTW probably many or most of the extra 1.1 million on disability (or similar) benefit are working illicitly and contributing to the economy. IMO.
As far as their bad backs allow them, of course.
Oct 20th 2004, 5:46 pm
#36
Forum Regular
Joined: Mar 2004
Location: Samsonvale, Brisbane, QLD
Posts: 49
Re: UK housing market - rumours of its death greatly exaggerated?
Originally Posted by dutch
Hi everyone.
Sorry about what is going to be a lengthy post, but I do feel that the opposite view has to be put into the forum about the UK housing market. I don’t post much and certainly don’t want to come across as a ‘smartarse’, however I would also wish to avoid the title ‘panic-mongerer’ as well.
First I would like to state that I do not have a crystal ball, but neither does anyone else. Please feel free to accept or ignore my advice as you choose. By the way, as a pre-july 136er I will hopefully soon be putting my money where my mouth is.
As Don has correctly stated, at the moment there is ample anecdotal evidence from this discussion forum, that people are struggling to sell their houses (although, anecdotally, the number of viewers seems to be rising slightly). This has been presented as evidence of an imminent house price crash in the UK, with falls in house values of circa 30%. My question is why?
This figure, I believe, was originally quoted by the OECD in a November 2002 report as their estimation of the amount by which UK homes were overpriced http://www.findaproperty.co.uk/cgi-b...l?storyid=4040.
It is interesting to note that the OECD themselves had changed their forecast to ‘house prices to slow, not crash’ as of May 2004 http://money.guardian.co.uk/print/0%...0330%2C00.html.
But why should we be expecting a ‘crash’?
The most common argument I have come across is that traditional ‘income multiples’ are being far exceeded. Traditionally, an income multiple of around 3-3.25 was seen as a fair long-term average. Income multiples are now as much 5 in some areas as is shown in the attached BBC article http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3717338.stm.
However, if you examine the affordability of these loans in terms of the percentage of income actually spent maintaining the loan, you see a different story (not much more than the long-term average). This is compared well in the following government report which although 8 months old, illustrates the point very well (page 6). http://www.odpm.gov.uk/stellent/grou...pdf_027576.pdf
The reason for this is that, despite the increase in house prices, interest rates are at historically very low levels and are relatively stable (even after the recent rises) and there is now serious talk that rates have now peaked and may be reduced next year (BBC article today) http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3735782.stm. As if they're not reduced and underlying (CPI) inflation falls more than 0.1% from its current 1.1%, the Bank of England will be put in the embarrassing position of having to write an open letter to the Chancellor explaining why it has missed its inflation target by undershooting it.
The last time the UK market ‘crashed’ was in the late 1980’s/early 1990’s. A comparison of data is illuminating (Sept 2004 (latest data) vs Sept 1990).
Another factor to bear in mind is that in 1990 we were heading into a global slowdown, not coming out of one. Further, interest rates are now out of the control of short-termist politicians who are more tempted to play the economy for political gain rather than for the long-term benefit of the country. In short, when the Bank of England raises interest rates, people listen.
Therefore, I would have to agree with the OECD and state that I think a ‘crash’ of 20-30% is unlikely.
So why is the market so slow? To be fair, most buyers in the market will remember the dark days of the early 1990’s or know someone who does. So once interest rates start to rise and the media is full of ‘house price meltdown’ stories, buyers are going to be put off. As it becomes obvious that rates aren’t going to rise (and perhaps decline) and the media switches to whatever other story occupies it then (maybe Jordan will split from Peter Andre), I expect the buyers will return, but prices will remain relatively stable.
You also have to remember that a lot of the stress you read about here isn’t caused by the housing market per se, but by the crazy way we go about selling houses in the UK and the stunts this allows buyers to pull.
The ones who suffer in a market like this are the poor sods who have to sell up for some reason (such as moving to the other side of the world!). But take heart. Its not actually a disaster if you look at it from another angle.
House prices are falling in Australia too (possibly faster than in many places in the UK). So imagine the following scenario (this is probably my plan). Sell your house at a 5% (ish) discount for a relatively quick sale, put the proceeds in a bank for 12 months at 5% (I know there are tax issues, but I’ll ignore them for simplicity’s sake) and rent in Aus. In 12 months you’ll have proceeds based on your full asking price while the market around you has dropped. Much better in the long term than moving when both housing markets are booming and you have to buy as quickly as possible to avoid losing out.
By the way, I know its very easy to pull statistics to prove an argument (as I’m sure someone will, to prove me wrong), but as Churchill said ‘There are lies, damn lies and statistics’, I am merely suggesting that there is more than one possibility for the UK housing market.
Right, I’ve said my bit.
Best of luck to all those trying to sell your houses.
Dave
Sorry about what is going to be a lengthy post, but I do feel that the opposite view has to be put into the forum about the UK housing market. I don’t post much and certainly don’t want to come across as a ‘smartarse’, however I would also wish to avoid the title ‘panic-mongerer’ as well.
First I would like to state that I do not have a crystal ball, but neither does anyone else. Please feel free to accept or ignore my advice as you choose. By the way, as a pre-july 136er I will hopefully soon be putting my money where my mouth is.
As Don has correctly stated, at the moment there is ample anecdotal evidence from this discussion forum, that people are struggling to sell their houses (although, anecdotally, the number of viewers seems to be rising slightly). This has been presented as evidence of an imminent house price crash in the UK, with falls in house values of circa 30%. My question is why?
This figure, I believe, was originally quoted by the OECD in a November 2002 report as their estimation of the amount by which UK homes were overpriced http://www.findaproperty.co.uk/cgi-b...l?storyid=4040.
It is interesting to note that the OECD themselves had changed their forecast to ‘house prices to slow, not crash’ as of May 2004 http://money.guardian.co.uk/print/0%...0330%2C00.html.
But why should we be expecting a ‘crash’?
The most common argument I have come across is that traditional ‘income multiples’ are being far exceeded. Traditionally, an income multiple of around 3-3.25 was seen as a fair long-term average. Income multiples are now as much 5 in some areas as is shown in the attached BBC article http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3717338.stm.
However, if you examine the affordability of these loans in terms of the percentage of income actually spent maintaining the loan, you see a different story (not much more than the long-term average). This is compared well in the following government report which although 8 months old, illustrates the point very well (page 6). http://www.odpm.gov.uk/stellent/grou...pdf_027576.pdf
The reason for this is that, despite the increase in house prices, interest rates are at historically very low levels and are relatively stable (even after the recent rises) and there is now serious talk that rates have now peaked and may be reduced next year (BBC article today) http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3735782.stm. As if they're not reduced and underlying (CPI) inflation falls more than 0.1% from its current 1.1%, the Bank of England will be put in the embarrassing position of having to write an open letter to the Chancellor explaining why it has missed its inflation target by undershooting it.
The last time the UK market ‘crashed’ was in the late 1980’s/early 1990’s. A comparison of data is illuminating (Sept 2004 (latest data) vs Sept 1990).
Code:
2004 1990 Unemployment 1.39m 2.84m Interest rates 4.75% 13.75% RPI inflation 3.1% 10.9%
Therefore, I would have to agree with the OECD and state that I think a ‘crash’ of 20-30% is unlikely.
So why is the market so slow? To be fair, most buyers in the market will remember the dark days of the early 1990’s or know someone who does. So once interest rates start to rise and the media is full of ‘house price meltdown’ stories, buyers are going to be put off. As it becomes obvious that rates aren’t going to rise (and perhaps decline) and the media switches to whatever other story occupies it then (maybe Jordan will split from Peter Andre), I expect the buyers will return, but prices will remain relatively stable.
You also have to remember that a lot of the stress you read about here isn’t caused by the housing market per se, but by the crazy way we go about selling houses in the UK and the stunts this allows buyers to pull.
The ones who suffer in a market like this are the poor sods who have to sell up for some reason (such as moving to the other side of the world!). But take heart. Its not actually a disaster if you look at it from another angle.
House prices are falling in Australia too (possibly faster than in many places in the UK). So imagine the following scenario (this is probably my plan). Sell your house at a 5% (ish) discount for a relatively quick sale, put the proceeds in a bank for 12 months at 5% (I know there are tax issues, but I’ll ignore them for simplicity’s sake) and rent in Aus. In 12 months you’ll have proceeds based on your full asking price while the market around you has dropped. Much better in the long term than moving when both housing markets are booming and you have to buy as quickly as possible to avoid losing out.
By the way, I know its very easy to pull statistics to prove an argument (as I’m sure someone will, to prove me wrong), but as Churchill said ‘There are lies, damn lies and statistics’, I am merely suggesting that there is more than one possibility for the UK housing market.
Right, I’ve said my bit.
Best of luck to all those trying to sell your houses.
Dave
Thank you Dave for your lengthy post, we found it to be on the same wave length as we were thinking.
Wondered if you can give us your opinion on something, here goes:
Our position is we have to validate our kids visas (ours have been done) by the end of the year. Our house is on the market, lots of interest but the buyers have not sold theirs etc . yesterday we dropped the asking price by approx' 6% feeling that it may have been valued too high at the start.
The problem is we have booked our flights to Oz for the end of November, we are seriously thinking about not comming back until the house has sold.
The idea being that we find a house in Oz to rent for 12 months in a location for suitable schools, so the kids can settle in and start a new term in the new year. ( Daughter 16 is doing "A" levels at present so we don't want to mess her around, she could be at the beggining of the Australian equivelent in the new year).
Obviously unless a miracle happens we will not have sold our house by this time especially as Christmas is quickly approaching!
The Question is:
How will doing this effect us with the "tax issues" if we leave our house and up sticks, go to Oz and sell the house whenever we can. Then transfer our savings from the U.K to OZ, is it worth getting a job (therefore tax file numbers etc) or would it be better to live off our savings because of the tax implications when we sell the house and exchange rate increases etc...
We are more than confused on this issue, if you do know the answer we don't mind how long it is but please put it in "noddy" terms.
Hope that you can give some advice as we are going madddd!, worrying!
Many Thanks Kay and David.
Oct 20th 2004, 9:21 pm
#37
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Oct 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 360
Re: UK housing market - rumours of its death greatly exaggerated?
Originally Posted by worzel
England is still way over-populated and restrictions on new build continue so demand is still greater than supply so don't worry about a crash.
I agree with the Economist that both the UK and Australia are experiencing a house price bubble that will, at some point, go pop. Essentially, this particular asset class is overvalued. At some point, values will fall. The difficult bit is picking the top or bottom of the market.
Oct 20th 2004, 11:33 pm
#38
Banned
Joined: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,048
Re: UK housing market - rumours of its death greatly exaggerated?
Originally Posted by dutch
The last time the UK market ‘crashed’ was in the late 1980’s/early 1990’s. A comparison of data is illuminating (Sept 2004 (latest data) vs Sept 1990).
Dave
Code:
2004 1990 Unemployment 1.39m 2.84m Interest rates 4.75% 13.75% RPI inflation 3.1% 10.9%
Oct 21st 2004, 6:32 am
#39
Banned
Joined: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,048
Re: UK housing market - rumours of its death greatly exaggerated?
"Perhaps most importantly, broader macroeconomic fundamentals remain positive with household income and spending growing strongly and the unemployment rate currently at 23-year lows."
"Despite the fact that household debt to income ratios are at record highs, debt servicing costs for an ‘average’ mortgage3 are presently only 38% of average household disposable income. This compares to a high of 44% in 1991 and a long-term average of 32%. The market is therefore much less vulnerable now to any downward price correction."
(Aus) Housing market bearishness is unwarranted - ANZ Bank report
So, "provided everything else retains its rosy glow, and ignoring the effects of inflation on real costs and values, everything looks not too rotten".
"Despite the fact that household debt to income ratios are at record highs, debt servicing costs for an ‘average’ mortgage3 are presently only 38% of average household disposable income. This compares to a high of 44% in 1991 and a long-term average of 32%. The market is therefore much less vulnerable now to any downward price correction."
(Aus) Housing market bearishness is unwarranted - ANZ Bank report
So, "provided everything else retains its rosy glow, and ignoring the effects of inflation on real costs and values, everything looks not too rotten".
Oct 21st 2004, 8:55 am
#40
Just Joined
Thread Starter
Joined: Jun 2004
Location: stafford, uk
Posts: 26
Re: UK housing market - rumours of its death greatly exaggerated?
Originally Posted by kaydave
Thank you Dave for your lengthy post, we found it to be on the same wave length as we were thinking.
Wondered if you can give us your opinion on something, here goes:
Our position is we have to validate our kids visas (ours have been done) by the end of the year. Our house is on the market, lots of interest but the buyers have not sold theirs etc . yesterday we dropped the asking price by approx' 6% feeling that it may have been valued too high at the start.
The problem is we have booked our flights to Oz for the end of November, we are seriously thinking about not comming back until the house has sold.
The idea being that we find a house in Oz to rent for 12 months in a location for suitable schools, so the kids can settle in and start a new term in the new year. ( Daughter 16 is doing "A" levels at present so we don't want to mess her around, she could be at the beggining of the Australian equivelent in the new year).
Obviously unless a miracle happens we will not have sold our house by this time especially as Christmas is quickly approaching!
The Question is:
How will doing this effect us with the "tax issues" if we leave our house and up sticks, go to Oz and sell the house whenever we can. Then transfer our savings from the U.K to OZ, is it worth getting a job (therefore tax file numbers etc) or would it be better to live off our savings because of the tax implications when we sell the house and exchange rate increases etc...
We are more than confused on this issue, if you do know the answer we don't mind how long it is but please put it in "noddy" terms.
Hope that you can give some advice as we are going madddd!, worrying!
Many Thanks Kay and David.
Wondered if you can give us your opinion on something, here goes:
Our position is we have to validate our kids visas (ours have been done) by the end of the year. Our house is on the market, lots of interest but the buyers have not sold theirs etc . yesterday we dropped the asking price by approx' 6% feeling that it may have been valued too high at the start.
The problem is we have booked our flights to Oz for the end of November, we are seriously thinking about not comming back until the house has sold.
The idea being that we find a house in Oz to rent for 12 months in a location for suitable schools, so the kids can settle in and start a new term in the new year. ( Daughter 16 is doing "A" levels at present so we don't want to mess her around, she could be at the beggining of the Australian equivelent in the new year).
Obviously unless a miracle happens we will not have sold our house by this time especially as Christmas is quickly approaching!
The Question is:
How will doing this effect us with the "tax issues" if we leave our house and up sticks, go to Oz and sell the house whenever we can. Then transfer our savings from the U.K to OZ, is it worth getting a job (therefore tax file numbers etc) or would it be better to live off our savings because of the tax implications when we sell the house and exchange rate increases etc...
We are more than confused on this issue, if you do know the answer we don't mind how long it is but please put it in "noddy" terms.
Hope that you can give some advice as we are going madddd!, worrying!
Many Thanks Kay and David.
I know I said that my previous post on this topic would be my last. I was going to PM my answer to you, but thought that my apparent silence could be misconstrued.
I am no tax expert, particularly in relation to Australia.
Myself, I intend to pay someone properly qualified like Alan Collett for definitive advice when the time comes as I have the usual pensions, endowments, investment ISAs etc. My advice to you would be to do this as well. Getting it wrong could be far more costly than his fee.
I intend to sell my house before I go, mostly because I don't want to be paying a mortgage with no income and I don't trust estate agents.
In very general terms, from what I've gathered from the forum, at the point at which you first reside in Australia all your assets are treated as transferred to Australia at their value on that date at that date's exchange rate. Any gains/losses you make from either the exchange rate or your house sale will be liable for Australian Capital Gains Tax. I have no idea how they ascertain the value of your house on that date.
If you don't sell your house, I'm guessing you'll have to do the rest (getting a job, transferring savings etc.). These judgements are very personal and I am not qualified to advise you.
Personally, I'd PM Alan just to get a quote for advice etc. You will be able to give him the full details and ultimately sue him if any of that advice proves to be inaccurate (not that I expect it would be). Just check whoever you use is a member of an appropriate body.
Be careful with asking an open question on the forum on an issue such as this. This may give you some idea of how it works, but there is no comeback if the information proves to be inaccurate.
Sorry I can't be more helpful, but I only advising you to do what I'm going to do.
PM me if I can be of further help as this really is my last post.
Best of luck
Dave
Oct 21st 2004, 11:25 am
#41
Forum Regular
Joined: Mar 2004
Location: Samsonvale, Brisbane, QLD
Posts: 49
Re: UK housing market - rumours of its death greatly exaggerated?
Originally Posted by dutch
Hi Kay and David!
I know I said that my previous post on this topic would be my last. I was going to PM my answer to you, but thought that my apparent silence could be misconstrued.
I am no tax expert, particularly in relation to Australia.
Myself, I intend to pay someone properly qualified like Alan Collett for definitive advice when the time comes as I have the usual pensions, endowments, investment ISAs etc. My advice to you would be to do this as well. Getting it wrong could be far more costly than his fee.
I intend to sell my house before I go, mostly because I don't want to be paying a mortgage with no income and I don't trust estate agents.
In very general terms, from what I've gathered from the forum, at the point at which you first reside in Australia all your assets are treated as transferred to Australia at their value on that date at that date's exchange rate. Any gains/losses you make from either the exchange rate or your house sale will be liable for Australian Capital Gains Tax. I have no idea how they ascertain the value of your house on that date.
If you don't sell your house, I'm guessing you'll have to do the rest (getting a job, transferring savings etc.). These judgements are very personal and I am not qualified to advise you.
Personally, I'd PM Alan just to get a quote for advice etc. You will be able to give him the full details and ultimately sue him if any of that advice proves to be inaccurate (not that I expect it would be). Just check whoever you use is a member of an appropriate body.
Be careful with asking an open question on the forum on an issue such as this. This may give you some idea of how it works, but there is no comeback if the information proves to be inaccurate.
Sorry I can't be more helpful, but I only advising you to do what I'm going to do.
PM me if I can be of further help as this really is my last post.
Best of luck
Dave
I know I said that my previous post on this topic would be my last. I was going to PM my answer to you, but thought that my apparent silence could be misconstrued.
I am no tax expert, particularly in relation to Australia.
Myself, I intend to pay someone properly qualified like Alan Collett for definitive advice when the time comes as I have the usual pensions, endowments, investment ISAs etc. My advice to you would be to do this as well. Getting it wrong could be far more costly than his fee.
I intend to sell my house before I go, mostly because I don't want to be paying a mortgage with no income and I don't trust estate agents.
In very general terms, from what I've gathered from the forum, at the point at which you first reside in Australia all your assets are treated as transferred to Australia at their value on that date at that date's exchange rate. Any gains/losses you make from either the exchange rate or your house sale will be liable for Australian Capital Gains Tax. I have no idea how they ascertain the value of your house on that date.
If you don't sell your house, I'm guessing you'll have to do the rest (getting a job, transferring savings etc.). These judgements are very personal and I am not qualified to advise you.
Personally, I'd PM Alan just to get a quote for advice etc. You will be able to give him the full details and ultimately sue him if any of that advice proves to be inaccurate (not that I expect it would be). Just check whoever you use is a member of an appropriate body.
Be careful with asking an open question on the forum on an issue such as this. This may give you some idea of how it works, but there is no comeback if the information proves to be inaccurate.
Sorry I can't be more helpful, but I only advising you to do what I'm going to do.
PM me if I can be of further help as this really is my last post.
Best of luck
Dave
Many thanks Dave,
Your advice is good and much appreciated, we will be seeking professional advice soon.
We wish you all the best
Kay and David
