scooby3

Talking to a very well connected friend who believes the current global credit crisis is very likely to hit the commodities market severely...in essence what he is saying is the resources boom is over and over the next few years a 100-200 thousand drop in house prices in areas that have been dependant on the resource boom is likely.
Im not sure but given that the price rises were so dramatic in such as hort time there is no reason to suggest that they wont drop as quick... what do people think.
The australian press are very good at trying to talk the market up but this guy who is very well connected says there are serious concerns at very high levels.

What do people think????

Grayling

The Australian news today has been full of doom and gloom.

G

scooby3

The press has been yes but what do people think??

scooby3

My view is that it is too tenuous to form an economies strength in regional areas on the resource boom....if that doesnt continue what happens???
Obviously in those areas like Mackay and Townsville where there are big gaps between resource incomes and others there will be a crash...not good for the middle income earner such as teachers, nurses and other public sector workers....it is very clear boom and bust... the OECD puts Australian housing as the most unnafordable of western nations... i fear it doesnt look good but hope im wrong!!!

emelems

I would try and say something intelligent here, but I am not wised up... The Old Bloke has spent the last 4 weeks or so reading up and studying and has informed us that his prime concern now is holding on to the money that we have (we sold our house in the UK back in Dec and the monies are in a bank account whilst we are travelling awaiting transfer to AU$) and that he has no intention of buying a house for atleast 2 years..

Interestingly enough, we looked at rentals and for the price we pay in rent per week is half the amount should we have bought a similar property and taken a mortgage..

I was reading The Australian and this self made property millionare said that he thinks that the property/real estate "opportunties" won't be for another 6 months atleast (am reading between the lines here, but I think he was probably referring to people businesses selling because they have to and releasing good investments).. but this won't be happening for another 6 months in his opinion..

Thats about the long and short of my knowledge and possible opinion!

Em x

scooby3

I think your man is very wise... my connected friend believes there will be massive drops as the global crisis affects the global economy...he belives anyone who bought property in the last four -five years is going to lose enormous amounts of equity over the next two years...so hang on to your money and sit and watch.

Pollyana

I'm still trying to work out what the thread title has to do with the actual subject

What happens financially doesn't matter to me at all as I'm still as broke as the day I arrived.

emelems

I think he might have had quite a few more replies if the title was a bit more aptly named!

Em x

scooby3

Bumping my own thread expected a lot more comment to be honest

asprilla

I'm sure that there are dozens of people still in the middle of typing lengthy replies. When each of them finish up and hit "post", I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes the longest thread in BE history !

Amazulu

I do not try and predict the hosing market because I, like everyone else, including your friend do not know what is going to happen to it. It is what it is.

As for the end of the commodity market, well I've posted my thoughts on other threads. Again, I have an opinion about it, but ultimately it is what it is.

I posted this link on another thread but here it is again. Not all doom and gloom:
http://seek.com.au/users/apply/index...35&cid=jobmail

asprilla

For what its worth, I don't think that the price of commodities will have a large impact on the property market. But I could be wrong.

scooby3

The commodoties have driven the economy..now that boom is likely to be over it must affect the housing Market WA's incredible increases over the past few years have beenn directly linked

Pollyana

You would probably have more answers with a different title that was my point before. With this title people are only likely to look if they are curious about what Mackay Townsville and WA have in common

Dorothy

I only clicked on it to tell the OP that Mackay and Townsville were not in WA.