Sooty and Sweep

£1.............buys...........change.....%....... .52 wk-h..........52 wk-l
Aus Dollar...2.08860.......0.02620....1.27.....2.64870 ..........1.98240

Centurion

Nothing suggests that. A rise of 42c anytime soon given the state of sterling imo is very unlikely. Which is good - I have to return to the UK again next month and am enjoying the exchange rate

MartinLuther

Could be 2.4 in September.


(2010 )

Amazulu

Reading this morning that AUD is expected to weaken in the short term. Might go to 2.25 or so.

Who knows.

wanttobedownunder

Not good for all us thats selling our UK house and moving over soon come on $2.50

DownUnderPaddy

I can't see the range breaking out of 2.0 to 2.20 anytime soon (i.e. in the next 6 months at least)
Stanger things have happened though for sure !

This looks to be a pretty good insight I believe...

Halo Financial - Daily Currency Insight
http://www.fxtraders.eu/article.php?id=18469



Currency - GBP / Australian Dollar
"If you have read the rest of this report you will see a theme developing. The Pound is trading in remarkably well defined ranges on all fronts. The upward trend channel in the Sterling - Australian Dollar exchange rate is as clear as a clear thing in a clear pool of clear water. And we are heading towards the top of that range as I write. In essence this is all part and parcel of the ambivalence that traders are feeling towards the markets. If we had a clearer idea of where we are in the economic cycle, I am sure the Pound would be far weaker because the interest rate yields are more attractive than those of the UK and the British economy, we are warned, if s likely to face a more protracted slump with a much slower recovery. If you agree, then you will use the top of this current trading range as the target to buy Australian Dollars and not get too hung up on the unrealistic levels we saw briefly last autumn. "

moneypenny20

But a hell of a lot better than it was a few months back.

DownUnderPaddy

and if you believe in the trusty Bollinger Bands as a good predictor (and they tend to be), the next move will be down rapidly towards the bottom of the band (at 2.03ish) , having just pushed through the 2.08 top.

mindblower

.[/QUOTE]

I think the recent mini rise may be a blip.

2.40 seems far far away for now.

DownUnderPaddy

I think the recent mini rise may be a blip.[/QUOTE]

http://blog.worldvillage.com/busines...ger_bands.html
"Contracting bands warn that the market is about to trend: the bands first
converge into a narrow neck, followed by a sharp price movement. The first
breakout is often a false move, preceding a strong trend in the opposite
direction. "

Could that recent minirise be the false move referred to ? If so, we are probably about to see the mentionedd strong trend in the opposite direction....DOWN

dugongs

There have been a couple of signals recently.

First the Bank of England in the UK stopped the quantative easing which immediately strengthened the pound. This was unexpected so is the talk turning to rate rises as the UK economy stutters back to growth. Lots of variables but higher bond yields, a new government inside a year and housing activity returning to normal levels should support the pound at low levels.

The aussie is fascinating. It has always been a one trick pony commodity currency and has been recently priced for boom time conditions. Reality is sinking in that a return to norm is not going to look like the past 5 years and commodity prices will probably return back to slow decline because the worldwide leverage is gone and the chinese dont need to host the olympics again for another 100 years. This reality is leading to a mexican stand off between China and OZ re pricing and a diplomatic incident is the last thing oz needs right now. Lower commodity pricing will result in lower aussie as terms of trade decline. Likewise as the commodity bubble unwinds unemployment in oz will further increase and if rudd gets re-elected reality will have to be faced and no more handouts to defer the inevitable. Interest rates will have to be cut further to prop everything up and again negative for the dollar.

My money is on a slow grind back to 2.50 over the next year and unless oz address the balance of their economy it may go further over the years to come as boom is so often followed by bust.

rab

Interesting analysis, but I hope you're wrong. I want to exchange some money and don't have the deposit to lock in rate yet.

The weaker the pound vs the dollar the better for genuine Expats!

rab

Note to self - unless sending money here of course .... durrr, sorry

mindblower

[[/QUOTE]

Good post that goodongs

DownUnderPaddy

Seems to have followed the indicators alright. Steady drop back down to 2.03 today since pushing through the 2.08 top back on the 7th.
It seems unlikely that it will do anything but bounce between this range for the immediate future.
Targeting anything more than 2.20 in the coming months would seem to be wishful thinking on the face of the evidence out there, but hey, you just never know these days what's just around the corner !