bondipom

Units Down Houses Stable. North Shore and Eastern Burbs houses down!

Problem with housing data is that stats are always several months old and anyting more recent is anecdotal.

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/...635285152.html

Prices of units tumble but houses bear up
By Lisa Pryor, Property Reporter
May 7, 2004


Sydney city units have shed 12 per cent of their value in a year and the median price is lower now than it was 12 months ago, bank figures show.

The figures from the Commonwealth Bank also reveal that prices for suburban units have dropped in recent months, although they are still more expensive than they were a year ago.

The city area, which includes Broadway, Pyrmont and Chippendale, was the only region of Sydney where the median price was lower than a year ago. At $422,500, this was down 12 per cent. The figures do not. however, include off-the-plan unit sales, which may reflect sales contracts signed up to two years ago.

Over the past three months, median unit prices have fallen in Canterbury-Bankstown, the Hills district, Liverpool-Fairfield, Macarthur-Camden, Parramatta and the northern suburbs, the Commonwealth Bank Property Value Guide shows.

In Canterbury-Bankstown, the value of a typical unit financed by the bank fell 5 per cent to $280,000 in the last three months, though prices are still 19 per cent higher than a year ago.
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The eastern suburbs, the lower North Shore and the northern beaches were the only areas to record falls in house prices in the last three months - of between 2 per cent and 5 per cent

sjn2003

Sounds like a good time to be renting and watching which way the market will go over the next 12 months.

East burbs/Northern Beaches only areas to record house price falls?? As some of most desirable areas of Sydney surely because they were well over priced anyway - always to first to be hit (and city apts).

Think I'll be leaving our equity in the bank for a while - just have to figure out now whether to leave it in a UK bank or an Aus bank...nothing is ever that simple!

Peter

Are any places outside of the doghouse affordable in Double Bay or Darling Point yet?

bondipom

What do you class as affordable and a doghouse? 2 Bedroom units around Bondi are 450,000 upwards. Recent reliable data is hard to come by but the recent stamp duty changes mean more investors are cashing in and pumping their money up to SE QLD property. The coming month is important in NSW as it is the first with no public hols since the stamp duty announcements.

ABCDiamond

Some examples of price movements from the www.homepriceguide.com.au website.

HOUSE (not units) price changes for the 12 months to March 31 2004

Sydney City & East +9% . current average $ 1,207,037
West Sydney Post Code 2759 +16% . current average $ 347,915


Brisbane East + 18% . current average $ 401,464
SE QLD Postcode 4165 +27% . current average $ 372,698

walaj

been following houses for sales in certain Sydney surburbs and have noticed that those that remain unsold, many of the prices are being reduced a bit (say $20k on 750k house).

I have not really being following the prices/market that long to really extract any trends, but houses not going at auction now with a price tag, and reductions are showing there is scope for the buyer to be a bit more fussy/or the sellers are being too gready

Pants

Come on my house is for sale...lovely area Orchard Hills......pleaseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.....

bondipom

If its any comfort you are selling at the top of the market.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...55E601,00.html

Housing bubble bursts: Reserve
By David Uren, Economics correspondent
May 08, 2004

THE housing bubble has burst, with property prices falling by an average 8.4per cent in the March quarter, according to the Reserve Bank, confirming that interest rates will remain stable for months.

The bank cited preliminary private research showing house prices dropped by 14.5per cent in Melbourne and 10.5per cent in Sydney in the March quarter.

Price falls were 1per cent or less in other capitals, except in Adelaide, where they rose 2.7per cent. Based on official estimates of the value of all dwellings in Australia, an 8.4 per cent fall in housing prices amounts more than a $60 billion loss in capital value.

"A turning point has been reached in the housing market after the overheated levels of late last year," the bank said yesterday in its quarterly statement on monetary policy.

Housing Industry Association senior economist Harley Dale said all the signs were that prices had slipped on a widespread front.

"I'd be surprised if there was anyone in the industry that would disagree with the Reserve Bank view on this," Mr Dale said.

Louis Christopher, author of the research on prices quoted by the Reserve, said the price falls were being driven by a lack of borrowers.

"They're leaving the market in droves and it has forced sellers to reduce pricing expectations in auctions."

Mr Christopher, of Australian Property Monitors, said it was the sharpest downturn in the market since 1989.

He gave as an example houses in the Hills district in northwest Sydney, which are selling for as much as $100,000 less than they were fetching last year - a slide of about 15per cent.

Mr Christopher said the weakness in the market had spread beyond the apartment market, which started to slow early last year. Further falls were in prospect, with the likelihood the drop could reach 20per cent by the end of the year.

Peter Costello earlier this week told The Australian that the end of the housing boom was a risk facing the domestic economy.

The Reserve Bank said that interest rates, based on its 5.25 per cent official cash rate, were "close to normal" and that falling house prices reduced the likelihood that the economy would require further credit tightening.

The central bank said the 1percentage point increase in interest rates late last year had significantly reduced the stimulus of cheap credit to the economy.

The overheated housing market had been an important reason to shift interest rates to a "more normal" level.

The quarterly statement said housing loan approvals had peaked at about $15billion a month in October and had fallen in each of the four months to February to about $12billion.

There were signs the fall in approvals was being followed by a drop in actual home lending.

Accurate and current information on house prices is hard to obtain, because most of the surveys are based on the price at settlement, which may be months after the purchase.

However the Reserve bank said the house price index constructed by APM tracked prices at the date of contract.

Its survey shows apartment prices are also falling, with a 10.2 per cent decline in Melbourne and 3.5 per cent in Sydney offsetting rises in other capitals. The Reserve Bank said no single house price measure could be regarded as definitive. However, other indexes prepared by the Commonwealth Bank, private research firm Residex and the Real Estate Institute of Australia also showed price falls.

"The preponderance of price falls in the major cities suggests that for Australia overall, house prices declined in the March quarter," it said.

Auction clearance rates and surveys of consumer sentiment provided further evidence of the turn in the housing market. The bank said the trends in rental markets were not uniform. Rents were rising strongly in Adelaide, Brisbane and Canberra, but were flat in Sydney and falling in inner Melbourne.

The bank said the turn in the housing market was extending to new home construction, citing Housing Industry Association research that commitments for new houses were about 35 per cent below the peak last year. However, there will not be a crash. "The decline will be mild in comparison with previous housing cycles," it said. There was strong underlying demand for housing and favourable conditions in the economy generally were likely to sustain new dwelling construction.

The decline in new dwelling construction would partially be offset by the relative strength of renovation.

The Reserve does not expect the decline in the housing market to generate a broader malaise in the economy. However, it said households were more heavily indebted and saving less than ever, with interest payments consuming an even higher share of disposable income than when mortgage rates peaked at 17 per cent in the late 1980s.

Don

Doesn't make much economic sense, this last bit. Unless there are some extraneous influences as yet unseen (increased immigration numbers would be an easy one), it looks as if the general Aus housing mkt will go very stagnant/ decline further for the next couple of years. And that'll have quite serious negative effects for the economy.

UK next?

bondipom

UK: Credit Crisis Fuels Bankruptcy Rise

The number of personal bankruptcy cases rose to an 11-year high in the first quarter of 2004, providing fresh evidence of Britain's debt crisis.

Critics blamed the flood of easy credit offers for the increase and predicted that figures will continue to soar.

The Department of Trade and Industry said there were 10,294 personal insolvencies in the first quarter, up 27% on the same quarter last year. However, it said that allowing for seasonal adjustments it showed a 0.5% decrease from the previous quarter.

As recently as 1996 fewer than half of personal bankruptcies were due to abuse of credit and store cards. Yesterday's figures show this now accounts for 69%.

Mike Gerrard, a personal insolvency expert at Grant Thornton, said: "Whilst much has been said about students with increasing debts taking advantage of bankruptcy law to avoid paying off their student loans, there is very little evidence of this happening. The problem rests squarely with excessive consumer borrowing."

bondipom

IMO the recent rise in the pound has been in anticipation of rate rises. I think these will have a similiar affect as the RBA rises last year. Anyway enough of being Mystic Meg.

Peter

What I meant was anything more than a doghouse affordable at Double Day or Darling Point. Didn't word it right. When I was last in Sydney, those two 'burbs had some seriously expensive real estate.

bondipom

They do have expensive real estate but most of the surrounding burbs have caught up and in some cases passed Double Bay. Bondi is one such Burb that has rocketed and changed in the last 5 years. I fear it will end up like Paddington and the cheap restaurants will have to move on.

Peter

Are there still basketball courts on the promenade on Bondi Beach? Used to play hoops there as a kid.

bondipom

I think there are some by the primary school but not sure if there are some by the pavillion. Were you from the Eastern Burbs?