strong A$ - whens it going to end?

Closed Thread Subscribe

Thread Tools

Feb 9th 2005, 9:57 pm

Sungold

Forum Regular

Thread Starter

Joined: Dec 2004

Location: Canberra formerly St Neots

Posts: 57

Sungold is an unknown quantity at this point

strong A$ - whens it going to end?

Hi All, After bottoming out at 2.36 and rising briefly to 2.55, the pound has fallen again to 2.41 and looks to go lower on the back of potential interest rate rises in Australia.

I'm looking to transfer assets over later this summer so I only hope things improve before then. Anyone got any views on what is likely to happen with the Oz economy this year?

Feb 9th 2005, 10:03 pm

Amazulu

Proudly Deplorable

Joined: May 2003

Location: Alloha snack bar

Posts: 24,246

Re: strong A$ - whens it going to end?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sungold

I think the US$ is the key here. It's gained a bit recently affecting all currencies including the Au$.

Feb 9th 2005, 10:44 pm

RichS

BE Enthusiast

Joined: Sep 2003

Location: Maroubra

Posts: 753

Re: strong A$ - whens it going to end?

You won't see too much movement now on the back of a rate rise by the RBA. They've already flagged it and its been taken into account on the rates as they are now - so long as the rise isn't greater than 0.25 you'll not see much impact when it comes.

If the UK were to up rates again and/or the USD gain a bit then you could see the GBP gain a bit.

All things considered its just going to be a yo-yo ride. From my point of view if I can get 2.5 then I'll be more than happy. I'm in no rush and I'll just ride it out in the mean time.

Feb 9th 2005, 11:52 pm

TheAncientGeek

Forum Regular

Joined: Nov 2004

Location: Bullcreek, WA

Posts: 167

TheAncientGeek is an unknown quantity at this point

Re: strong A$ - whens it going to end?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sungold

One man's improvement is a worsening of another man's situation. Take heart from the knowledge that some of us are benefiting when transferring money back to the UK

Feb 10th 2005, 1:24 am

ABCDiamond

Guest

Posts: n/a

Re: strong A$ - whens it going to end?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sungold

Hi All, After bottoming out at 2.36 and rising briefly to 2.55, the pound has fallen again to 2.41 and looks to go lower on the back of potential interest rate rises in Australia.

But that "may" be offset by the potential UK interest rate rises:

Quote:

A leading think tank has predicted that interest rates will continue to rise next year despite a slowdown in the property market.

According to a new report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), three rate rises will be needed in 2005, which will take the cost of borrowing to 5.5 per cent.

It all depends on who gets it right

Feb 10th 2005, 1:43 am

CadburysFingers

Karma earned, not whored

Joined: Apr 2004

Location: Perth

Posts: 1,001

CadburysFingers is a glorious beacon of light

Re: strong A$ - whens it going to end?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amazulu

I think the US$ is the key here. It's gained a bit recently affecting all currencies including the Au$.

Exactly right, the US interest rate is the one we need to watch, it is expected to rise by 1% this year, so the later part of the year should see you getting more dollars for your pound.

Current live price: $2.396 (10.42 a.m Perth time)

Feb 10th 2005, 2:04 am

RichS

BE Enthusiast

Joined: Sep 2003

Location: Maroubra

Posts: 753

Re: strong A$ - whens it going to end?

Its not the rate rises themselves that dictate the rate. Its the expectation of the rate rises. so if everyone expects the Uk rate to go up once and it then goes up 3 times in a year then GBP will strengthen. Conversly if everyone expects 3 rises and you only get 1 rise then the GBP will fall.

With the AUD you also need to look at predictions for commodity prices, as its traditionally linked to commodities. If they go up the AUD goes up.