garrisondamn

Last year the exchange rate for the New Zealand dollar was up to nearly 3.5 to the pound sterling.
It's now about 2.8! Maybe the war is affecting the pound!?

Obviously wanting the best rate to exchange our measly savings, anyone know if the rate will return anywhere near to last years high?

Megalania

It is simply a question of time. Over what time are you asking?

Tomorrow, no; anytime within the next 50 years, highly probably.

Will it drop to 2? Tommorow, no; anytime within the next 50 years, highly probably.

Will anyone who can make money predicting currency movements tell you, no. I've never heard of anyone who can consistently make money predicting currencies, they are "Bayesian", yesterdays rate plus / minus a random proportion of yesterdays rate is todays rate. If you can predict random fluctuations, go directly to the Casino and make a squillion.

I realise this is not comforting but I believe it is fact.

garrisondamn

I realise there is no pattern to it! I suppose it was a stupid question! I now feel a complete twat!

Megalania

Then you are in the very best of company along with the rest of us.

ratliffe

I Have got 5 degrees in finance and i am a expert in foreign exchange and the nz$ is to go to $3.90 to £1 by next week.................................
not really we are all in the same boat. i need a good exchange especially because my last point is for settlement funds!
Gavin

captaincook

You cannot predict daily exchange rate movements but you can look at the factors which contribute to the rate and form an opinion to where they are going.

Interest rates

Kiwiland highest in the Western world at a time when investors are looking for risk free returns. As a global investor why lose money on Nasdaq when Bank of Kiwi Land will give you 6% risk free. But probably peaking now.

UK interest rates low and moving lower.

Economy

Kiwiland powering ahead fueled by migration mainly from polynesia.

UK being strangled by overbearing anti-capitalist labour government. Govt Borrowings rising fast to fund public sector although most going in higher wages so no visible improvements in services and jobs growth all in the public sector. Taxes rising at the worst possible time in the cycle. Middle income earners being clobbered in both income taxes and now council taxes. Housing market stalling and already broke in London. London the engine of UK growth in recession.

Political

Kiwiland a backwater of stability that never goes to war and always seek the moral high ground in these matters of international state.

UK up to their eyeballs in it.


You have to say that you can understand why the rate is as it is.

But with war then who knows what happens next. If's it's short and sweet then markets may rally on expectation of stability, low oil prices and better growth from usa which i would have thought would lower kiwi rate but help oz rate. If the war drags on and becomes a right old bun fight then kiwi is probably going to stay strong if not stronger.

Just my opinion but markets have trends just look at all the nice graphs that get produced they are not random as some may be suggesting.

Megalania

Technically, market prices are not random, they are close to Bayesian with a generally slight up or down trend due to inflation or deflation which itself is close to Bayesian and is in turn related to political, population and technological changes. So many intertwined factors makes prices unpredictable except in the short term.

All the nice trendy graphs are like mirages.

travelling_kiwi

if you can believe the media...apparently the NZ govt is concerned the rising NZ$ is hurting export income and will probably try to curb if not reverse it's value