State of the Economy
Nov 5th 2001, 5:49 am
#1
Forum Regular
Thread Starter
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 32
Folks,
This was the advice from a friend of a friend who works in the finance industry in Melbourne...would anyone care to comment as it seems to suggest emigrating at the moment is a bad idea unless you can afford to be unemployed for 6 months or more...
Interest rates are low at the moment and there may be 1 more cut of 1/4 of a percent in this cycle. The election which is due next week is making things a little unclear, but I think that the near future will not be greatly changed no matter who is elected this weekend. The bottom has not been reached as yet with a lot of companies saying things are slowing. A larger than normal number of companies are closing up or downsizing or being placed in the hands of administrators. The job market is very poor for this time of year and I am actually glad I am working at the moment. I have not had a phone call from a headhunter in about 3 months, which is unusual for this time of year. A lot of people I know are worried that they might be laid off either before or at christmas unless things pick up. Even if things do improve, which I cannot see happening, the job market here does not resume, except for very special skills, until the middle of February.
The housing market has now gone off the boil and I think there will be some good buying opportunities early in the new year, as a number of people have purchased new houses but have not been able to sell theirs for as much as they hoped and are trying to hold out for a better price. There are a lot of good properties on the market in good areas with for sale signs as the auction did not go as planned.
Sharemarket looks pretty fully priced in most cases and there are no bargains out there at the moment. But some shares can still be bought at reasonable prices to hold for the long term.
Bear in mind our economy is greatly influenced by US and Asia. With the US slowing and Asia still pretty much dead that will limit the growth here to a fair extent. I think our growth will be positive, but only in areas involing domestic consumption and certian imports. Also tourism, which is a big driver in our economy has slowed to a trickle after 11 September.
Hope I have not made the picture too gloomy, but I know a lot of people are fully extended on credit cards and with big mortgages and these are the people who are really sweating a bit. If you are in a safe(or as safe as a job can be) job with little or no debt then things really are pretty good for you.
This was the advice from a friend of a friend who works in the finance industry in Melbourne...would anyone care to comment as it seems to suggest emigrating at the moment is a bad idea unless you can afford to be unemployed for 6 months or more...
Interest rates are low at the moment and there may be 1 more cut of 1/4 of a percent in this cycle. The election which is due next week is making things a little unclear, but I think that the near future will not be greatly changed no matter who is elected this weekend. The bottom has not been reached as yet with a lot of companies saying things are slowing. A larger than normal number of companies are closing up or downsizing or being placed in the hands of administrators. The job market is very poor for this time of year and I am actually glad I am working at the moment. I have not had a phone call from a headhunter in about 3 months, which is unusual for this time of year. A lot of people I know are worried that they might be laid off either before or at christmas unless things pick up. Even if things do improve, which I cannot see happening, the job market here does not resume, except for very special skills, until the middle of February.
The housing market has now gone off the boil and I think there will be some good buying opportunities early in the new year, as a number of people have purchased new houses but have not been able to sell theirs for as much as they hoped and are trying to hold out for a better price. There are a lot of good properties on the market in good areas with for sale signs as the auction did not go as planned.
Sharemarket looks pretty fully priced in most cases and there are no bargains out there at the moment. But some shares can still be bought at reasonable prices to hold for the long term.
Bear in mind our economy is greatly influenced by US and Asia. With the US slowing and Asia still pretty much dead that will limit the growth here to a fair extent. I think our growth will be positive, but only in areas involing domestic consumption and certian imports. Also tourism, which is a big driver in our economy has slowed to a trickle after 11 September.
Hope I have not made the picture too gloomy, but I know a lot of people are fully extended on credit cards and with big mortgages and these are the people who are really sweating a bit. If you are in a safe(or as safe as a job can be) job with little or no debt then things really are pretty good for you.
Nov 5th 2001, 7:28 am
#2
Guest
Posts: n/a
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Job market's certainly a lot tougher than it was 12-18 months ago. Hard to say if
it's as bad as in the US. The low value of the AUD is keeping some life in the
Australian economy, although the low dollar causes problems for Australians
travelling overseas.
I'm not sure if I would overstate things. People came to Australia during previous
recessions when things were a lot tougher than now and still managed. But you do need
to come prepared for problems, and if necessary take a job that's at a lower level
than what you're used to.
Not really applicable for families, but if you're single or without children you
can come out on a migrant visa and treat the whole thing like an extended working
holiday. There's no obligation on you to stick to your previous occupation, if
you want to travel around and work casually to pay your way that's quite ok in
visa terms.
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People coming from the Northern Hemisphere should be aware that the month of January
in Australia is equivalent to August in somewhere like the UK, in terms of getting a
job. It's not the recruiting season.
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The purchase market still seems active in Sydney, as of quite recently anyhow. But
there's no particular shortage in the rental market, and hasn't been since at least
the start of 2001.
Jeremy
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Job market's certainly a lot tougher than it was 12-18 months ago. Hard to say if
it's as bad as in the US. The low value of the AUD is keeping some life in the
Australian economy, although the low dollar causes problems for Australians
travelling overseas.
I'm not sure if I would overstate things. People came to Australia during previous
recessions when things were a lot tougher than now and still managed. But you do need
to come prepared for problems, and if necessary take a job that's at a lower level
than what you're used to.
Not really applicable for families, but if you're single or without children you
can come out on a migrant visa and treat the whole thing like an extended working
holiday. There's no obligation on you to stick to your previous occupation, if
you want to travel around and work casually to pay your way that's quite ok in
visa terms.
>
>
People coming from the Northern Hemisphere should be aware that the month of January
in Australia is equivalent to August in somewhere like the UK, in terms of getting a
job. It's not the recruiting season.
>
>
The purchase market still seems active in Sydney, as of quite recently anyhow. But
there's no particular shortage in the rental market, and hasn't been since at least
the start of 2001.
Jeremy
Nov 5th 2001, 8:48 am
#3
Guest
Posts: n/a
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Nov 5th 2001, 8:50 am
#4
Guest
Posts: n/a
Well a lot of what "he" says is true but everything is relative.........the building
industry has gone off slightly but is still buoyant in comparison to the past three
years. Job market poor well that is also dependent of the area of employment one
seeks........gees we may as well jump ship
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industry has gone off slightly but is still buoyant in comparison to the past three
years. Job market poor well that is also dependent of the area of employment one
seeks........gees we may as well jump ship
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