Amazulu

Until The Greens f**k it up.

IvanM

I am posting on an iPhone and was on a bus.

Centurion

Or the ALP Greens bastard child. Today, as I took my eye off the rear of the lovely young lady on the treadmill in front of me, and gazed on the TV I saw the news ticker proudly declare that the new greens MP has today come out and criticized Labor for not introducing a carbon tax already.

Not even in power and yet I wonder who is going to pulling the strings. A weekly meeting with the PM for the greens MP. More status than all of the other back benchers.

The prospect of 3 years of bribing rural independents and, more worryingly, kissing green arse really frightens me.

Swerv-o

I'm not convinced by a carbon tax - I don't think it's the right approach. Generally I don't mind Bob Brown, he often manages to talk some sense where other politicians just talk bollocks, but seeing him before the election ranting on about how the polluting companies 'must pay' seemed very much the politics of revenge and hatred.

I think that a carbon tax will do much the same as raising duty on cigarettes and petrol does to people - forces the small players (read poor) out of the market, while those that can afford to just carry on with gay abandon. It won't do anything to address the underlying causes of carbon pollution. I was much more in favour of tax breaks to encourage the use of renewable energy, or alternatively a lower threshold production tax for big polluters coupled with incentive breaks.


S

Amazulu

I think it will be an ALP/Communist (aka The Greens)/rural independent government that is going to get government unfortunately. I don't think that 2 of the independents will go with the coalition. I give it 18months tops before we go back to the polls.

Heaven help us in the meantime.....

Swerv-o

Yes, I agree with this - Looks like Wilkie has thrown his hat in with the ALP/GRN coalition. I think that he was a hope for the coalition. Though, he has said that it is only support in so far as not backing needless no confidence votes.

Wilkie Backs Labour

So that gives Labour 74 seats - they still need 2 more independents to come across, and they still need to find a speaker from somewhere.


S

JoeBloggs80

To be honest, I think whichever side comes out on top will have a pretty tough time holding on to power. The circumstances under whatever government forms mean that their authority will be tenuous.

Sadly this will mean whoever ends up in opposition will spend the majority of their time attacking the government for not being legitimate and offering no real policy alternatives. There will just be a lot of pathetic shit slinging like in the campaigns.

On a side note it makes me laugh how paranoid some people are of the Greens. You better not air those opinions in public - you might get sent to the Gulags!

Swerv-o

Hang on - the Liberals managed to get away with that all through the campaign!

The Greens do seem to be a very polarising force in Australian politics, unlike the Lib Dems in the UK. People here either love them or loathe them - there seems to be very little middle ground. This coalition will undoubtedly take the Labour party further to the left however.


S

BristolBeary

The speaker can vote if a vote is tied so that doesn't really matter. I'm still going with a double dissolution. There are currently 3 or 4 bills at the 3rd vote stage so can be triggered rather easily by whoever gets in.

roaringmouse

Following an election there is the possibility of a joint sitting rather than double dissolution. It's only happened once before, and members of both houses vote with an overall majority required to pass the bills.

IvanM

Double dissolution or there will be a big love in. If it is labour that wins then I wonder is Abbott will learn and be more conciliatory and work with labour. he has given a couple of indicators already and went against the prime net filter religious nut Fielding when Fielding said he would block supply. It goes against his instinct of Abbots street fighting dirty politics but he also knows the liberals did not have an overwhelming swing he hoped for.

If the liberals win I think labour will implode however the Greens will have a large say in the senate to bring the libs under control.

The Green influence will mostly be seen in going for a carbon reduction scheme. Whether it will be Abbott's carbon tax (he was very quiet on that one in the election) or carbon trading is something we will see.

All I know is that if a government is formed it will not be like anything we have seen before. If you live in a marginal seat expect the pork barrels. If you do not, start a campaign to become one.

When I lived in Bondi Wentworth was considered safe Liberal and the local candidate got too comfortable. Along came Turnbull and a boundary change that made the seat more marginal. Suddenly federal cash was flying at the place. The libs were in charge at the time.

I reckon double dissolution may happen but both parties are wary voters will punish whoever is seen as the provocateur.

roaringmouse

Remember the Senate doesn't change until July next year.

IvanM

Yep. Not much will happen until then. If the parties have sense they won't rock the boat until then. IMO voters will savage a party seen as divisive. KRudd played the "I'm with Howard on that one" card successfully.

The interesting time will be when one party gets a decisive lead in the polls. Both will be desperate to get out of this.

THR

If one of the party-leaders takes on the job as PM but gets nothing passed what happens then? Can the other party-leader have a go or will there be a new election. If the other party-leader also takes his/her turn but similarly fails but both party-leaders are reluctant to have a new election, can the GG force a new election?

MartinLuther

The GG can force an election.

More likely scenario is that the government loses its majority in a by-election or someone switches sides. It is possible for the other party to take over without an election if they can collect enough support for a majority.