scoobydooathome

Got to think long term, it has gone up down as the years have gone by so why is it so special this time !!!

The Dollar is now biting OZ exporters, hitting the mining industry too ...

So who know's,

But for the pommies returning better not hang about, no one knows whats around the corner ...

terryg

Hi Scoobs

when do you think you'll be off mate ?

scoobydooathome

Hi Terry,

We don't really know, possible August / September / October time, just getting the packing and storage sorted out, then it's offski ... yipee !!!

can't wait

How about you,

terryg

Hi Scoobs - I'm currently aiming at 1st Aug but that depends on quite a few things slotting into place.

i cant wait either

Dinky

Just go!
Aussie house prices are currently like the UK. Rent for a year and then the world is your juicy oyster

Dinky

scoobydooathome

Hey Dinky,

I like the sound of that, but what about the spangoolies $$$'s,

Hope there something in it,

Dinky

I know I know! We're om a Temp De Facto and I think I get a couple of years grace. So let's see!
I'm convinced that the old Aussie dollar does a dive in Autum so keep them £££££

Dinky

scoobydooathome

Hi Dinky,

Now that would make my day and plenty other's too, lets hope you are right ...

Dinky

I feel it in the Fosters. Who want to invest in the £ anyway the interest rates are too low as they are.
The £ will not be allowed to fall much further (US pride) and Australia wants to be the worlds friend so rates will come down.

Want do I know, a bottle of Hunter Valley red to the good!

Dinky

scoobydooathome

Its a good theory and could be right, been hoping for a Ozzy interest rate cut, the dollar is hurting them now,

Our interest rates are at a joke low level, about time they went up here in the UK,

Don

There might be an Aus interest cut but it'll be matched by a UK interest cut (methinks) so differential will stay unchanged. AUD will stay relatively high yield.

When NZD cut interest rate a couple of weeks ago, there was just a temporary blip in the exchange rate then punters realised it was still high yield compared to other major currencies.

Cheers - Don

captaincook

Oz is coming out of a drought and leading indicators published recently here pointed to solid growth building going forward. Market is already discounting one cut in oz before year end - so the current exchange rate reflects a cut. It's possible oz is on hold rate wise for rest of year and therefore market will need to revise upwards rather than down.

Exporters will whinge but the fact is they could have sold just about anything at $3 to £1 it was so undervalued. There wont be much sympathy at this level to cut rates to help them not with the housing market and domestic demand so strong. Housing is amazingly buoyant here at the moment and it just seems to keep going. No doubt there is'nt much more left in it and it will flatten for many years to come soon. If rates ever do rise a lot higher again there are bound to be falls and a lot of pain here people are so highly borrowed.

Do not think the seasons have much to do with this - its all about high yields in a world of low returns and falling stock markets and stable / falling prices. UK looking very soggy and if they cut rates again to boost demand the pound will continue to fall. I personally think UK will cut again in the near future.

Against this Aussie is still undervalued - most forecasters are saying around 70 us cents is cheapish fair in the longer term. What would that be about $2.35 to a pound if the cross rates stay roughly the same ?

I think the impact of the aussie rise will start to tell next year as economy slows down and housing runs out of steam. Could be another 2 or 3 years before the aussie heads back about $2.50 to the pound.

Having said all that we were ready to go to Oz at $2.20 - it's more about the adventure of doing it than just purely the financial. But for those that want to go home after a few years it makes it easier if the exchange rate supports you.

paulf

Makes you wonder how the "locals" will be able to buy IE first time buyers in OZ are going to be affected by this housing price boom more than any immigrant with a pocket full of dollars.

scoobydooathome

First time buyers are out the market here in the UK, unless mummy and daddy give about 50 grand as a deposit,

anthonykirby

I hope to be accepted in the next 3 weeks for my de facto visa.

Me and my fioncee were going to buy a home here in the UK but pulled out because we can afford to live a nice life in Oz (maybe not a big house to start), but the pros of the UK are a lot less than the pros of OZ.

The dollar situation is a bit naff (I aint no financial expert) but I remember last year it was 2.69 at a local agent (mother in law returned to Oz - she exchanged the profit from her house sale!!!)

Anyway - lets all remember why we doing it - regardless of the dollar situation we all going to have a better quality of life in one way or another.

Anthony