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Predictions for exchange rate over next three months?

Predictions for exchange rate over next three months?

Old Jun 25th 2008, 10:47 pm
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Default Predictions for exchange rate over next three months?

I know it's a 'how long is a piece of string' question but I'd be interested in opinions on the direction of the GPB/AUD exchange rate over the next few months.

My completely uneducated guess is that there will be a turnaround since there are predictions of a lowering of the interest rates in Australia here towards the end of the year.

However, I have no clue what's happening with UK interest rates.

Any thoughts?

Dave
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Old Jun 26th 2008, 12:43 am
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Default Re: Predictions for exchange rate over next three months?

My prediction is that the exchange rate will move up and down between 2.04 and 2.18 over the next 3months.
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Old Jun 26th 2008, 1:08 am
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Default Re: Predictions for exchange rate over next three months?

Pretty stable till after end of November, 2.04 to 2.14.

(just my opinion, that not much willchange until the US elections are finished and the US$ gets a recovery bounce)
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Old Jun 26th 2008, 5:57 am
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Default Re: Predictions for exchange rate over next three months?

Thanks both - what I expected to hear ... have to transfer some money across in the next couple of months - think I'll set a Limit Order of 2.1 with Ozforex ...

... although I'm not very good at this ... last time I transferred a significant amount the rate shot up the very next day from 2.31 to 2.5! So get ready everyone ... you could be in the money!

Dave
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Old Jun 26th 2008, 6:37 am
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Default Re: Predictions for exchange rate over next three months?

Prediction 1.90 to 1.95. AUD continues to strengthen as UK economics weaken the pound.
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Old Jun 26th 2008, 6:54 am
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Default Re: Predictions for exchange rate over next three months?

Originally Posted by windsordave View Post
...there are predictions of a lowering of the interest rates in Australia here towards the end of the year.
As much as I would love this to happen (particulary if the banks follow suit), there's no guarantee. Also, guessing what the RBA will do is as inexact as guessing what the exchange rate will do. I've even heard rumours of another rate increase here, as consumer spending isn't reducing as quickly as they would like.

My own guess is that we're at the bottom of a cycle in terms of the GBP/AUD exchange rate, so I'm not exchanging any pounds just yet.

There's also a risk of a global market crash. Should everything start dissolving into poo, watch the value of the pound surge relative to the aud (and everything else). Small consolation, maybe, but it's worth holding on to some sterling, IMO.
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Old Jun 26th 2008, 7:40 am
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Default Re: Predictions for exchange rate over next three months?

I also think $1.90 could be possible but not probable. The $2.00 is such a big psychological level that I don't think it will go below it, at least not in the next 3 months.

Mike.
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Old Jun 26th 2008, 7:47 am
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Default Re: Predictions for exchange rate over next three months?

The Economist predicts that the peak for Aud Vs US will be 1.14 for the rest of 2008. You'll have to wait until 2010 for 1.41 to the US$ but 2009 will yield 1.30, which is a hell of a lot better than it is at the moment.

As we're planning on renting for a while, we're going to sit tight and see what happens....
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Old Jun 26th 2008, 10:01 am
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Default Re: Predictions for exchange rate over next three months?

Originally Posted by windsordave View Post
My completely uneducated guess is that there will be a turnaround since there are predictions of a lowering of the interest rates in Australia here towards the end of the year.
You must be reading different predictions than I am !
I have seen nothing coming from the mouths of any economists or RBA spokespersons that would indicate any lowering of interest rates towards the end of this year.

There are actually growing indications that not only will there be another rise in August, but possibly November too if they are to keep inflation curtailed.

As it stands, they don't expect to pull inflation back into the target band until 2010.
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Old Jun 26th 2008, 10:46 am
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Default Re: Predictions for exchange rate over next three months?

Well I think we have some optimists on here.

Like a couple of others I expect interest to rise further. Maybe 0.5% by year end but that I reckon will it. The increases are biting now albeit slowly. A lot of the current inflation is being driven by fuel prices.

Regarding rate I would be extremely surprised if is we see any recovery better than 2.10 - certainly in 3months. If the 2.00 mark is broken, then I agree with other 1.90 is possible.

I'm juts buying some GBP today
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Old Jun 26th 2008, 1:17 pm
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Default Re: Predictions for exchange rate over next three months?

I have to say it (until the end of Sep) but 2.4 in September.
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Old Jun 26th 2008, 1:27 pm
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Default Re: Predictions for exchange rate over next three months?

The computer says................................
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Old Jun 26th 2008, 1:55 pm
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Default Re: Predictions for exchange rate over next three months?

Originally Posted by holsie0 View Post
The computer says................................
Hi. Just to give you an idea of what the market's currently thinking...forward rates (the rate you could exchange today at a specific time in the future) are pretty much flat at 2.075 -2.085 out to 3 months (even 1 yr fwd is only 2.11).

I'm in same position as you (wishing I'd locked it in last year but wasn't certain of visa), but personally don't see it moving much for a while - so will probably change what I need and leave rest in uk account - as although I think more ikely to go to 1.90 than 2.20 in short term (very happy to be proven wrong), seems more upside potential than downside in the longer term (although I don't have a crystal ball either).

Good luck. Jay
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Old Jun 26th 2008, 10:55 pm
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Default Re: Predictions for exchange rate over next three months?

Just thought I'd add this link to this thread http://www.x-rates.com/d/AUD/GBP/graph30.html It can track the last 30 days, 2 months, 6 months or year of action of any two currencies.

It should give you an idea as to how things are moving
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Old Jun 26th 2008, 11:22 pm
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Default Re: Predictions for exchange rate over next three months?

We must be due a Black Friday to shake things up a bit?
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