savanna454

Hi folks

This guy was on the ABC 7.30 report earlier this week.

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

I guess he is the pessimistic balance to the optimism of the politicians wrt the OZ economy and has the academic status to back it.

Feel much more of a mushroom here compared to the UK - you know kept in the dark and fed on s..t!

Not the lies/propaganda of a 3rd world state more being treated like a child "there there she'll be right"

Maybe too much negative Brit rather than Optimistic Aussie!

Your thoughts?

Amazulu

There will be another 'expert', on another channel with a completely opposite viewpoint. Which 'expert' is right?

You are not being kept in the dark. The information is out there if you look for it. Draw your own opinion from it.

I don't think there is going to be a recession in Australia but what do I know?

Nobody knows what is going to happen.

Centurion

Hum lets see where would I rather be...

Recession down the pan UK or Motoring along quite nicely still Australia....

Answers on a postcard..

dugongs

i have to say aussies dont report bad news about themselves and they have a blinkered view of how great they are which leads to a lot of corporate disasters overseas e.g. nab, multiplex, fosters, lendlease you name it the landscape is littered with aussie corporate overseas mishaps. I guess the main reason is they are not really used to competitive markets so when faced with real competition they tend to act like little fluffy bunny rabbits in the headlight of a 40 tonne juggernaught - cba little venture into uk mortgage market was a good example only lasted about 6 months but the hype in oz about how they were going to take aussie mortgages to the backward brits before and then nothing ever said afterwards when it failed so quickly.

on the other hand i was always impressed how much financial coverage there used to be on tv and even the breakfast tv used to have regular bulletins explaining the dow closing etc. compare that to uk where you get about 10 weather reports an hour and a 3 min business report presented by an ex play school presenter declan pitched at 5 year olds.

Amazulu

Exactly. I don't care what anyone else says on here. I'm glad I live here and not in the UK or USA.

Australia is doing okay - the best of the OECD nations. IMF and OECD say there will not a recession here. Are they right? Who knows. It will be what it will be.

Hotton

Totaly agree the Australian tends to write about problems in Uk & US
rather than OZ.

Twinset

.....and the Uk does itself down every day by talking up the prospects of a recession , which says all you need to know about the UK press: always looking for the next big story!!

E.G. Headlines this morning from BBC:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7661303.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7663525.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7663225.stm

Bad news sells, so let's just keep on making bad news.......

I like the idea of a press that are behing their guys and looking outwards for stories.

In the meantime, I have a life, and shall stick to the SUN for real news......OK, only kidding, but they do have some amazing headline writers:

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage...cle1792625.ece

In the meantime, I shall continue to seek a life where sunshine is expected more than rain, where kids can enjoy the type of childhood I had and there is more diving than you can shake a stick at.

Recession? Depression? Money worries? Just stop watching TV and stop buying newspapers.

Oh and that brings me on to the interweb......!!

Twinset

Damson

I wish the bloody press would keep their mouths shut as I believee it's a very large factor in this mess. They are shaking everyone's confidence and will someone please shut that bloody Robert Peston up - he's doing loads of damage!

Twinset

Like she said - and everyone thinks he is cool.....not!! He is talking up the storm......

anthonyk

I think it’s fair to say that no one really knows what’s going to happen in the next few years in Australia, or Europe for that matter. Personally I don’t think it’s unlikely that in a few months time things will turn for the worse in the Aussie job market, and it’s anyone’s guess how long it’s going to last for. Among other things that means available and suitable jobs may be far and few between as people hunker down and stick with what they’ve got as companies start downsizing.

The prudent and sensible thing then is to accept that it may take a year or maybe two to find employment. For me that include taking a long hard look at my savings and live according to means. That means I’ll be looking for a cheaper place to rent, cheap car, cheap secondhand furniture etc. It’s an inconvenience compared to my previous expectations, but not compared to blowing all my money in 9 months and being forced to return home crushing my dreams of a new life down under.

Now this scenario may never happen and maybe I’ll get a job in a couple of months. That would be a pleasant surprise, but not something I’m willing to risk in an all out splash and dash of my savings.

Twinset

Personally I will clean toilets with a toothbrush if it means I have a job and I am not eating into savings too much. The prospect of any term of unemployment would leave me seriously bored. At the same time, my wife is hairdresser, so maybe I will be house hubby - and I count house wifery/husbandry as work!! In times of recession everyone wants their hair done!!

Twinset

Petals

Its the so called experts that got the world into this financial mess.

spartacus

Aint that the truth; world financial system 'teetering on the edge of systemic meltdown'.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7665515.stm

And not forgetting the why; the misselling of mortgages to those without a hope in hell of subsequently being able to repay them all in the name of multi-milion dollar bonus schemes.

Devlin

Probably a good thing you're happy there - with the AUD now having not much more value than toilet paper you probably don't have a lot of choice.

Check out the following article. An ominous sign for Australia imo.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...005200,00.html

A deep recession in Oz is pretty much dead cert now, and ironically the USA will likely fare better because it has a lower exposure to commodities!

Exile

What that guy says makes a lot of sense. A lot more sense than the deluded "another boom on the horizon" commentators, with their portfolios of investment properties to talk up.

Ignorance will not be bliss in this case. Optimism is fine, but not when people are being sucked in to other people's get rich schemes, which require an endless supply of greater fools.

You will find that most people's opinions on recession and the closely related issue of property prices reflect their own exposure the market, how many investment properties they have, etc. That is to say, it's based on wishful thinking, with the analysis starting from the conclusion they want to hear.

Up to now, I believe the Australian media have been reluctant to speak about what is really going on owing to all the vested interests. The mood seems to be starting to change now as the elephant in the room is just getting a bit too big.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe there really is another boom coming. But how can that make sense when a whole generation is being shut out of the property market, when bank lending has been predicated on property prices rising indefinitely ("doubling every seven years" -- how many times have we heard that one?), outstripping wage growth forever?

Sure, nobody knows exactly what will happen, but anyone who really stops to think about it knows what needs to happen. I really hope Australia can get away with some kind of soft landing, but I think it is looking less likely with the bubble so highly inflated.