NZ population rises by 1 million
Oct 25th 2002, 4:58 am
#1
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 7,613
NZ population rises by 1 million
New Zealand's population will rise by nearly a million over the next 50 years, according to Statistics New Zealand projections released yesterday.
The population will reach 4.81 million by 2051, a rise of 930,000, or 24 per cent, from the June 2001 population of 3.88 million.
The figures assume New Zealand women will have, on average, 1.85 children - compared with a 2.1 average required for the population to sustain itself without immigration.
It also assumes that by 2051, life expectancy at birth will rise by six years and there will be net immigration of 5000 people a year from 2007 - the average annual migration for the past 100 years.
The age structure will change significantly by 2051. Half the population will be older than 45, compared with 35 per cent in 2001.
Higher migration levels will not markedly slow the average age, projections suggest. With a net migration gain of 20,000 a year, the median age in 2051 will be 43. Zero migration would give a median age of 46 years.
The number of people under 15 would fall from 880,000 in 2001 to 750,000 in 2051, a drop in the share of the population from 23 per cent to 16 per cent. Over-65s would rise from 460,000 to 1.22 million.
The working population - 15-64 years - is expected to fall after 2021, to 2.84 million by 2051.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storydispl...toryID=3000890
The population will reach 4.81 million by 2051, a rise of 930,000, or 24 per cent, from the June 2001 population of 3.88 million.
The figures assume New Zealand women will have, on average, 1.85 children - compared with a 2.1 average required for the population to sustain itself without immigration.
It also assumes that by 2051, life expectancy at birth will rise by six years and there will be net immigration of 5000 people a year from 2007 - the average annual migration for the past 100 years.
The age structure will change significantly by 2051. Half the population will be older than 45, compared with 35 per cent in 2001.
Higher migration levels will not markedly slow the average age, projections suggest. With a net migration gain of 20,000 a year, the median age in 2051 will be 43. Zero migration would give a median age of 46 years.
The number of people under 15 would fall from 880,000 in 2001 to 750,000 in 2051, a drop in the share of the population from 23 per cent to 16 per cent. Over-65s would rise from 460,000 to 1.22 million.
The working population - 15-64 years - is expected to fall after 2021, to 2.84 million by 2051.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storydispl...toryID=3000890
Oct 26th 2002, 12:19 am
#2
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Joined: Nov 2001
Location: Nelson, New Zealand
Posts: 343
Re: NZ population rises by 1 million
Originally posted by pleasancefamily
New Zealand's population will rise by nearly a million over the next 50 years, according to Statistics New Zealand projections released yesterday.
The population will reach 4.81 million by 2051, a rise of 930,000, or 24 per cent, from the June 2001 population of 3.88 million.
The figures assume New Zealand women will have, on average, 1.85 children - compared with a 2.1 average required for the population to sustain itself without immigration.
It also assumes that by 2051, life expectancy at birth will rise by six years and there will be net immigration of 5000 people a year from 2007 - the average annual migration for the past 100 years.
The age structure will change significantly by 2051. Half the population will be older than 45, compared with 35 per cent in 2001.
Higher migration levels will not markedly slow the average age, projections suggest. With a net migration gain of 20,000 a year, the median age in 2051 will be 43. Zero migration would give a median age of 46 years.
The number of people under 15 would fall from 880,000 in 2001 to 750,000 in 2051, a drop in the share of the population from 23 per cent to 16 per cent. Over-65s would rise from 460,000 to 1.22 million.
The working population - 15-64 years - is expected to fall after 2021, to 2.84 million by 2051.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storydispl...toryID=3000890
New Zealand's population will rise by nearly a million over the next 50 years, according to Statistics New Zealand projections released yesterday.
The population will reach 4.81 million by 2051, a rise of 930,000, or 24 per cent, from the June 2001 population of 3.88 million.
The figures assume New Zealand women will have, on average, 1.85 children - compared with a 2.1 average required for the population to sustain itself without immigration.
It also assumes that by 2051, life expectancy at birth will rise by six years and there will be net immigration of 5000 people a year from 2007 - the average annual migration for the past 100 years.
The age structure will change significantly by 2051. Half the population will be older than 45, compared with 35 per cent in 2001.
Higher migration levels will not markedly slow the average age, projections suggest. With a net migration gain of 20,000 a year, the median age in 2051 will be 43. Zero migration would give a median age of 46 years.
The number of people under 15 would fall from 880,000 in 2001 to 750,000 in 2051, a drop in the share of the population from 23 per cent to 16 per cent. Over-65s would rise from 460,000 to 1.22 million.
The working population - 15-64 years - is expected to fall after 2021, to 2.84 million by 2051.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storydispl...toryID=3000890
Just think what the UK's population will be like by then!!!!!!
Mind you, it could go the other way, by the way things are going at the mo, there'll be nobody left in the UK, except the expats returning from OZ!!!!!:scared:
Oct 26th 2002, 1:31 am
#3
Just Joined
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 14
NZ pass mark
you stated in one of your post that the NZ passmark will decrease early next year, where did you get this news? or is it just one of those "hopeful" rumors?
Oct 26th 2002, 5:17 am
#4
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Thread Starter
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 7,613
Hi Green Ice,
I gave you a long private reply on the same subject a couple of days ago. Assuming you wouldn't be asking the same thing here if you received it, here goes again.
I gave my opinion (like every other poster who speculates about the passmark) since NOBODY knows what will happen in future and no official information regarding future passmarks has been published by the NZ govt. The best guide to future policy is the 'Briefing to the incoming minister' available to download on www.immigration.govt.nz. The best inside view of what's happening on an MAT basis to immigration numbers (which enables good predictions about points passmark changes) is the monthly immigration statistics report http://www.stats.govt.nz/domino/exte...?OpenDocument.
As things stand, NZ has just reelected a govt that has a policy of 48000 immigrants annually +/-10%. Large proportion must be skilled. This is a huge number and 'impossible' to fill on 30 points. Passmark was 24 and 25 for many years until very recently and NZ failed to attract the same numbers that are necessary to fill today's quoto. Ergo passmark will decline.
The new passmark will fall somewhere in between 30 and 25 - and immigration acceptances month-by-month will be monitored and if necessary the passmark adjusted up or down in order to ensure NZIS achieves its immigration quotas. It's likely the minister will be cautious and make the first smallish points adjustment down in late H1 2003 then adjust downwards again a few months later when it's clear monthly immigration numbers need to rise to meet annual target. This isn't rumour, but understanding and interpretation of immigration policy and application. The less easy aspects to incorporate are: public and political pressure in NZ to adjust immigration numbers - and proportions (skilled, family etc.)
Cheers - Don
I gave you a long private reply on the same subject a couple of days ago. Assuming you wouldn't be asking the same thing here if you received it, here goes again.
I gave my opinion (like every other poster who speculates about the passmark) since NOBODY knows what will happen in future and no official information regarding future passmarks has been published by the NZ govt. The best guide to future policy is the 'Briefing to the incoming minister' available to download on www.immigration.govt.nz. The best inside view of what's happening on an MAT basis to immigration numbers (which enables good predictions about points passmark changes) is the monthly immigration statistics report http://www.stats.govt.nz/domino/exte...?OpenDocument.
As things stand, NZ has just reelected a govt that has a policy of 48000 immigrants annually +/-10%. Large proportion must be skilled. This is a huge number and 'impossible' to fill on 30 points. Passmark was 24 and 25 for many years until very recently and NZ failed to attract the same numbers that are necessary to fill today's quoto. Ergo passmark will decline.
The new passmark will fall somewhere in between 30 and 25 - and immigration acceptances month-by-month will be monitored and if necessary the passmark adjusted up or down in order to ensure NZIS achieves its immigration quotas. It's likely the minister will be cautious and make the first smallish points adjustment down in late H1 2003 then adjust downwards again a few months later when it's clear monthly immigration numbers need to rise to meet annual target. This isn't rumour, but understanding and interpretation of immigration policy and application. The less easy aspects to incorporate are: public and political pressure in NZ to adjust immigration numbers - and proportions (skilled, family etc.)
Cheers - Don
Oct 26th 2002, 6:14 am
#5
Just Joined
Joined: Oct 2002
Posts: 14
thanks!
thanks pleasancefamily, I greatly appreciate your reply, there is something wrong with my e-mail server that is why I failed to read your e-mail.
thanks again and regards!
thanks again and regards!
Oct 28th 2002, 3:02 am
#6
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Joined: Jul 2002
Location: B.c Canada
Posts: 910
Originally posted by pleasancefamily
Hi Green Ice,
I gave you a long private reply on the same subject a couple of days ago. Assuming you wouldn't be asking the same thing here if you received it, here goes again.
I gave my opinion (like every other poster who speculates about the passmark) since NOBODY knows what will happen in future and no official information regarding future passmarks has been published by the NZ govt. The best guide to future policy is the 'Briefing to the incoming minister' available to download on www.immigration.govt.nz. The best inside view of what's happening on an MAT basis to immigration numbers (which enables good predictions about points passmark changes) is the monthly immigration statistics report http://www.stats.govt.nz/domino/exte...?OpenDocument.
The points are a lot less for Nz than Canada there its 75 points very hard to get !!
As things stand, NZ has just reelected a govt that has a policy of 48000 immigrants annually +/-10%. Large proportion must be skilled. This is a huge number and 'impossible' to fill on 30 points. Passmark was 24 and 25 for many years until very recently and NZ failed to attract the same numbers that are necessary to fill today's quoto. Ergo passmark will decline.
The new passmark will fall somewhere in between 30 and 25 - and immigration acceptances month-by-month will be monitored and if necessary the passmark adjusted up or down in order to ensure NZIS achieves its immigration quotas. It's likely the minister will be cautious and make the first smallish points adjustment down in late H1 2003 then adjust downwards again a few months later when it's clear monthly immigration numbers need to rise to meet annual target. This isn't rumour, but understanding and interpretation of immigration policy and application. The less easy aspects to incorporate are: public and political pressure in NZ to adjust immigration numbers - and proportions (skilled, family etc.)
Cheers - Don
Hi Green Ice,
I gave you a long private reply on the same subject a couple of days ago. Assuming you wouldn't be asking the same thing here if you received it, here goes again.
I gave my opinion (like every other poster who speculates about the passmark) since NOBODY knows what will happen in future and no official information regarding future passmarks has been published by the NZ govt. The best guide to future policy is the 'Briefing to the incoming minister' available to download on www.immigration.govt.nz. The best inside view of what's happening on an MAT basis to immigration numbers (which enables good predictions about points passmark changes) is the monthly immigration statistics report http://www.stats.govt.nz/domino/exte...?OpenDocument.
The points are a lot less for Nz than Canada there its 75 points very hard to get !!
As things stand, NZ has just reelected a govt that has a policy of 48000 immigrants annually +/-10%. Large proportion must be skilled. This is a huge number and 'impossible' to fill on 30 points. Passmark was 24 and 25 for many years until very recently and NZ failed to attract the same numbers that are necessary to fill today's quoto. Ergo passmark will decline.
The new passmark will fall somewhere in between 30 and 25 - and immigration acceptances month-by-month will be monitored and if necessary the passmark adjusted up or down in order to ensure NZIS achieves its immigration quotas. It's likely the minister will be cautious and make the first smallish points adjustment down in late H1 2003 then adjust downwards again a few months later when it's clear monthly immigration numbers need to rise to meet annual target. This isn't rumour, but understanding and interpretation of immigration policy and application. The less easy aspects to incorporate are: public and political pressure in NZ to adjust immigration numbers - and proportions (skilled, family etc.)
Cheers - Don
Oct 28th 2002, 3:07 am
#7
BE Enthusiast
Joined: Jul 2002
Location: B.c Canada
Posts: 910
Re: NZ population rises by 1 million
Originally posted by garrisondamn
Yeah?...............
Just think what the UK's population will be like by then!!!!!!
Mind you, it could go the other way, by the way things are going at the mo, there'll be nobody left in the UK, except the expats returning from OZ!!!!!:scared:
Yeah?...............
Just think what the UK's population will be like by then!!!!!!
Mind you, it could go the other way, by the way things are going at the mo, there'll be nobody left in the UK, except the expats returning from OZ!!!!!:scared:
Sorry I did a goof .
points to get into Canada are very hard 75 points I think NZ would be a better way to go. if I were wanting to Immigate somewere.
Oct 28th 2002, 6:56 pm
#8
Forum Regular
Joined: Feb 2002
Posts: 127
30 years ago Wellington was planned to grow at such a rate that a plan was drawn up, the 'Pauatahanui Comprehensive Development Plan' which provided for massive 'villages' north of Wellington. As it happened the population has remained static and only Whitby was built, and this not really out of necessity. This land is still green hills scattered with a few sheep. I'm not saying that it won't happen but government predictions are notorious for being inaccurate. Of course there are certain parts of government that believe that massive net immigration is good for the country and by publishing this kind of report it could become a kind of self fulfilling prophecy.....
