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No Housing Shortage in Perth

No Housing Shortage in Perth

Old Apr 7th 2010, 12:49 am
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Default No Housing Shortage in Perth

Told ya, seems like it was vested interests all along scaremonging the gullable public into buying property in Perth at inflated prices.

Large developers have PLENTY of land but are just drip feeding it to keep up the high prices.

You have to take note when the real estate industry starts to turn on itself, it's a sign that things aren't all that good.

http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/wh...0406-rowf.html

Terry Ryder, founder of bargain property seeking service hotspotting.com.au, says predictions of a housing shortage are scaremongering "based on rubbery figures", with large developers with plenty of land drip-feeding it to suit themselves.

But Mr Ryder said this was not borne out by official figures, the most independent source of data available.

The federal government's state of supply report, released last year, showed there was likely to be enough land in the development pipeline to cater for demand over the next 20 years.

"They've been running this campaign for at least five years now," Mr Ryder said.

"They really need to start playing a different tune. The reality is there's a huge quantity of land out there owned by big property developers who are drip-feeding it to the market to suit their own game plans.


"There's no indication that you've got tens of thousands of families in Perth living in tents. There's ample supply there. They say these things to try to force governments to make decisions favourable to developers."
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Old Apr 7th 2010, 3:41 am
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Default Re: No Housing Shortage in Perth

Originally Posted by pomtastic View Post
Told ya, seems like it was vested interests all along scaremonging the gullable public into buying property in Perth at inflated prices.

Large developers have PLENTY of land but are just drip feeding it to keep up the high prices.

You have to take note when the real estate industry starts to turn on itself, it's a sign that things aren't all that good.

http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/wh...0406-rowf.html
Nobody replied to this one !!!
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Old Apr 7th 2010, 4:52 am
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Default Re: No Housing Shortage in Perth

Originally Posted by pomtastic View Post
Told ya, seems like it was vested interests all along scaremonging the gullable public into buying property in Perth at inflated prices.

Large developers have PLENTY of land but are just drip feeding it to keep up the high prices.

You have to take note when the real estate industry starts to turn on itself, it's a sign that things aren't all that good.

http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/wh...0406-rowf.html
I think a lot of people on here know that sort of developer lobbying goes on....and drip feed developing.....but if they do drip feed at too slow a rate to cater for immigration (because of increasing development costs, desire to push up prices or whatever)....what then?

Did you also see this quote made by the guy you quoted?

"Mr Ryder is also a critic of RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' decision to raise rates, citing what he calls a "mythical" housing price bubble, but he pointed the finger at housing industry lobby groups such as the HIA, state real estate institutes and the Master Builders Association."

Do you only believe bits of what he says?
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Old Apr 7th 2010, 5:09 am
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Default Re: No Housing Shortage in Perth

Originally Posted by fish.01 View Post
I think a lot of people on here know that sort of developer lobbying goes on....and drip feed developing.....but if they do drip feed at too slow a rate to cater for immigration (because of increasing development costs, desire to push up prices or whatever)....what then?

Did you also see this quote made by the guy you quoted?

"Mr Ryder is also a critic of RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' decision to raise rates, citing what he calls a "mythical" housing price bubble, but he pointed the finger at housing industry lobby groups such as the HIA, state real estate institutes and the Master Builders Association."

Do you only believe bits of what he says?
W.A is bigger then Western Europe and mostly empty you would think there would be enough land to build new suburbs in outer Perth.

Last edited by mohogony; Apr 7th 2010 at 5:11 am.
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Old Apr 7th 2010, 6:50 am
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Default Re: No Housing Shortage in Perth

I read recently that Australia has less building land than the UK, and therefore land shortages are pushing prices higher.
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Old Apr 7th 2010, 9:17 am
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Default Re: No Housing Shortage in Perth

Originally Posted by fish.01 View Post
I think a lot of people on here know that sort of developer lobbying goes on....and drip feed developing.....but if they do drip feed at too slow a rate to cater for immigration (because of increasing development costs, desire to push up prices or whatever)....what then?

Did you also see this quote made by the guy you quoted?

"Mr Ryder is also a critic of RBA Governor Glenn Stevens' decision to raise rates, citing what he calls a "mythical" housing price bubble, but he pointed the finger at housing industry lobby groups such as the HIA, state real estate institutes and the Master Builders Association."

Do you only believe bits of what he says?
The fact that Terry Ryder has made one comment saying the RE industry is lying, is a huge start. Terry Ryder sells Real Estate research and relies on house prices going up. If the whole industry suggested that housing was a lousy investment then I'm sure Terry Ryder would go bust. He is probably the king of spruikers in Aussie housing, so I'm stoked that he has even said this. Ryder has a following so of course he's gonna slag of Stevens for raising rates and calling the market a 'bubble', he's looking after his paying customers.

Too many articles in the main press now questioning the Aussie Housing market's sustainability, the tide is turning.
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Old Apr 7th 2010, 9:31 am
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Default Re: No Housing Shortage in Perth

Originally Posted by pomtastic View Post
The fact that Terry Ryder has made one comment saying the RE industry is lying, is a huge start. ...
Do you really think so...I would have thought almost everybody would agree that the RE industry pushes RE....who cares if they admit it or not....picking whether we are going to have a burst bubble or a soft landing and when is the tough part
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Old Apr 7th 2010, 9:34 am
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Default Re: No Housing Shortage in Perth

Originally Posted by mohogony View Post
W.A is bigger then Western Europe and mostly empty you would think there would be enough land to build new suburbs in outer Perth.
You would. But if what pomtastic says is true and supply is being limited by developers for various reasons then prices may continue to rise for some time during a period of strong immigration and birth rates?

There may be a certain lead time for developers to catch up. There have been recent reports in Brisbane saying the amount of land being developed is far below the amount of people moving to the city - for what it's worth.

I wonder whether things like this will continue to keep demand in balance with supply to produce a soft landing?
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Old Apr 7th 2010, 10:05 am
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Default Re: No Housing Shortage in Perth

Originally Posted by fish.01 View Post
Do you really think so...I would have thought almost everybody would agree that the RE industry pushes RE....who cares if they admit it or not....picking whether we are going to have a burst bubble or a soft landing and when is the tough part
I have no problem with people 'selling their wares' - that's business and life BUT what I do have a problem with is when press releases by vested interests are disguised as news. 55% of 'news' is in fact from press releases in Aus, e.g the Housing Industry of Australia (HIA) has done 'research' saying that Australia has a shortage of land or that house prices will reach a million in 5 years time and it's plastered all over the news and no one challenges it. The average Aussie will take these press releases as news - it's sad and worrying.

You can even buy a slot on Today Tonight/A Current Affair for around $20K, I believe. If I invented a liquid shake (just milk and a few fillers and vitamins) that was supposed to make you lose weight and paid ACA/TT then they would show it on TV and pretend it's 'a new discovery' and news item when it fact it's an advertorial. Next time you watch these programs you'll notice that I'm right. I've seen products to make your breasts bigger, magnets to make you stronger and all other crap 'news'.
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Old Apr 7th 2010, 10:42 am
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Default Re: No Housing Shortage in Perth

Originally Posted by pomtastic View Post
I have no problem with people 'selling their wares' - that's business and life BUT what I do have a problem with is when press releases by vested interests are disguised as news. 55% of 'news' is in fact from press releases in Aus, e.g the Housing Industry of Australia (HIA) has done 'research' saying that Australia has a shortage of land or that house prices will reach a million in 5 years time and it's plastered all over the news and no one challenges it. The average Aussie will take these press releases as news - it's sad and worrying.

You can even buy a slot on Today Tonight/A Current Affair for around $20K, I believe. If I invented a liquid shake (just milk and a few fillers and vitamins) that was supposed to make you lose weight and paid ACA/TT then they would show it on TV and pretend it's 'a new discovery' and news item when it fact it's an advertorial. Next time you watch these programs you'll notice that I'm right. I've seen products to make your breasts bigger, magnets to make you stronger and all other crap 'news'.
Well the thing is I already know you're right, don't make me watch it ....I would suggest this is common knowlege except amongst a certain gullible percentage of today tonight viewers....and I'm not sure they will be reading this discussion - but lets hope so Again, I would guess most people taking part in these property discussions would be fully aware of the planted newspaper articles from people with vested interests in real estate...I don't think you would get much argument....but given all of that it still doesn't mean for sure that we are going to have a property crash this year. That is something I do not know and would love to given my current position as a potential buyer.
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Old Apr 7th 2010, 11:17 am
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Default Re: No Housing Shortage in Perth

Originally Posted by fish.01 View Post
....but given all of that it still doesn't mean for sure that we are going to have a property crash this year. That is something I do not know and would love to given my current position as a potential buyer.
No one knows the future but you can take an informed and educated guess and do your own research. You can't rely on the general media here.

How about this? 'Debt Stress on the Rise Again'. I thought Australia had good lending practices and our banks weren't as lax as the US. And this is with relatively low interest rates. Trouble is, too many people have bought into the 'houses only go up' hype and are stuffed as a consequence.

DEBT stress has risen to levels not seen since September 2008, with one in five Australians finding it hard to make repayments, a survey says.

Veda Advantage's biannual Australian Debt Study reveals one in five Australians with debt are finding it difficult to make repayments or unsure how they will make their next repayment.

The survey of 1042 people, conducted by Galaxy research, found four in five Australians were worried about their ability to repay debt over the next 12 months - up from 76 per cent in September 2009.

"This is the highest level of debt stress in the past two and a half years of this study," Veda Advantage said in a statement on Monday.

"Also of concern is the finding that one in seven Australians have missed a minimum bill repayment in the past three months - up from 12 per cent in September 2009."
http://www.news.com.au/money/money-m...-1225850204852
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Old Apr 7th 2010, 12:04 pm
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Default Re: No Housing Shortage in Perth

The survey of 1042 people, conducted by Galaxy research, found four in five Australians were worried about their ability to repay debt over the next 12 months
That's 80% in 2010


14 October 2008
Veda Advantage survey finds 79% of Australians worried about their ability to repay debt over the next 12 months.
http://www.vedaadvantage.com/news-an....dot?id=505947
Not much change in two years.

Was it the same 10 years ago ?
 
Old Apr 7th 2010, 12:13 pm
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Default Re: No Housing Shortage in Perth

Originally Posted by ABCDiamond View Post
That's 80% in 2010




Not much change in two years.

Was it the same 10 years ago ?
The second survey was taken just before the GFC when things were going gangbusters here in Aus. So people haven't learned nothing from the GFC and are still piling on the debt.

Bear in mind interest rates are now 4.25% compared to October 08 when they were 6.75% before getting slashed. A few more interest rate rises and it will be alot worse than now. In fact, when the survey was collecting the data rates could of well been at 3%!!!
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Old Apr 7th 2010, 12:16 pm
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Default Re: No Housing Shortage in Perth

Originally Posted by pomtastic View Post
No one knows the future but you can take an informed and educated guess and do your own research. You can't rely on the general media here.

How about this? 'Debt Stress on the Rise Again'. I thought Australia had good lending practices and our banks weren't as lax as the US. And this is with relatively low interest rates. Trouble is, too many people have bought into the 'houses only go up' hype and are stuffed as a consequence.



http://www.news.com.au/money/money-m...-1225850204852
Like everywhere I avoid the tabloid media, ACA, TT, news.com.au etc but find ABC and SBS excellent. I think a lot of people who purchased in the last few years have been concerned about the GFC etc. Of course some young inexperienced people and some others didn't but on the whole I would give people a little more credit...a lot went ahead anyway given that they needed a home and as they couldn't say for sure which way it was going thought they would just get on the treadmill and hang on for dear life....

Last edited by fish.01; Apr 7th 2010 at 12:19 pm.
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Old Apr 7th 2010, 12:16 pm
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Default Re: No Housing Shortage in Perth

2007

a Veda Advantage study conducted in September 2007 which found that 81% of
Australians are worried about their ability to make repayments over the next 12
months. While conditions may be improving very slowly, three-quarters of the Australian population are worried about how they will make repayments on time.

http://www.aicm.com.au/AM/PDFs/2008/...008_Final2.pdf

It seem to be sticking around that 80% figure, with little change.
 

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