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March Unemployment Numbers: Higher then forecast

March Unemployment Numbers: Higher then forecast

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Old Apr 9th 2009, 1:37 am
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Default March Unemployment Numbers: Higher then forecast

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]?OpenDocument

Unemployment rate increases by 0.5 pts to 5.7% in March 2009 (seasonally adjusted) - Labour Force, Australia (cat. no. 6202.0)

No surprise to a lot of people I guess.
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Old Apr 9th 2009, 2:04 am
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Default Re: March Unemployment Numbers: Higher then forecast

that'll be another 0.25% of interest rates next month then.
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Old Apr 9th 2009, 2:48 am
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Default Re: March Unemployment Numbers: Higher then forecast

Looking at just the Full Time figures, for the last few years:

Unemployment Rate - looking for full-time work. Male & Female
Seasonally Adjusted figures

6.82% Mar-2000
6.58% Mar-2001
6.67% Mar-2002
6.51% Mar-2003
5.52% Mar-2004
5.11% Mar-2005
4.80% Mar-2006
4.27% Mar-2007
3.87% Mar-2008
5.70% Mar-2009


Between 1998 and 2007 the above figure averaged 6.10%

Between 1988 and 1997 the above figure averaged 9.02%

Based on historical figures, we are still in a low figure for Full Time unemployed.

Based on that, it is bound to get worse, just to return to average.
 
Old Apr 9th 2009, 3:04 am
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Default Re: March Unemployment Numbers: Higher then forecast

Just out of interest I had a look at the year I first arrived, 1986.

Unemployment rate - looking for full-time work, Persons: 8.5%
Unemployment rate - looking for full-time work, Males: 8.0%

Employed Full Time 5,669,400
Unemployed - looking for full-time work, Persons: 529,700
Labour Force ; Persons: 7,669,500

Compared to:
March 2009
Employed Full Time 7,621,300
Unemployed - looking for full-time work, Persons: 460,400
Labour Force ; Persons: 11,422,700

The Australian labour force has increased by 49% in 22 years...
But only 34% for full time positions.
And the numbers of people looking for Full time work has dropped by 15%.
 
Old Apr 9th 2009, 3:09 am
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Default Re: March Unemployment Numbers: Higher then forecast

NSW and WA appear to be the biggest 'victims' this month.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2...section=justin

New South Wales saw the highest jump in the unemployment rate, surging from 5.9 per cent to 6.9 per cent.

In Western Australia, the unemployment rate jumped from 4.1 per cent to 4.9 per cent, in seasonally-adjusted terms.
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Old Apr 9th 2009, 3:21 am
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Default Re: March Unemployment Numbers: Higher then forecast

what does all this translate to waanabee aussies.???
more and more waiting.
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Old Apr 9th 2009, 3:34 am
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Default Re: March Unemployment Numbers: Higher then forecast

Originally Posted by shafanm
what does all this translate to waanabee aussies.???
more and more waiting.
That depends...like in the U.K some occupations will not really be "touched" by what is happening around the world....here in W.A the housing market (one of the biggest employment areas...not a lot of other industry here.....that is mostly over East)especially the new homes being built has really slowed right down....we have friends who are "tradies" and they are really saying work has slowed right down.....our Australian friends are starting to complain that 'migrants" are taking jobs that should go to Australians....they do have a point...in the past 5 years here in Perth we have had a large building boom...mostly caused by migrants and the minning boom hence Aus needed "skilled" migrants to help build infrastructure...now it has slowed down...to a more "normal" pace...I do not think we will see such a large influx in the next couple of years.....and added to that "Migrants" from countries such as Indian and South Africa are arriving in very large numbers and most of these are highly qualified but a lot are working in different areas....such as....labourers, T.A's, general office work etc....so there is a lot of competition out there.....some people we have met who have recently come to Aus from the U.K are finding it very hard to secure work or are having to work away from home....or working in a different occupation...but if you want to come and live here you have to take the rough with the smooth like you would anywhere.....these recessions come and go.....when we arrived years ago my OH worked as a brickies labourer at first as he could not find work in his field at all so we have been here before so to speak....

good luck..
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Old Apr 9th 2009, 3:37 am
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Default Re: March Unemployment Numbers: Higher then forecast

Originally Posted by shafanm
what does all this translate to waanabee aussies.???
more and more waiting.
Well the unemployment rate, while historically still quite low, is rising fast. It's risen by nearly a fifth in the past 2 months alone.......the post Xmas period when we're told things are normally buoyant in the job market.

So in general terms, there are less jobs, and more competition for those there are, but how it affects you will depend on your specific skills and where in Aus you are looking for work. As for immigration, I guess the department will continually monitor the labour market and tweak the visa quotas, move occupations in and out of the CSL/MODL lists.
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Old Apr 9th 2009, 4:40 am
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Default Re: March Unemployment Numbers: Higher then forecast

Originally Posted by ABCDiamond
Looking at just the Full Time figures, for the last few years:

Unemployment Rate - looking for full-time work. Male & Female
Seasonally Adjusted figures

6.82% Mar-2000
6.58% Mar-2001
6.67% Mar-2002
6.51% Mar-2003
5.52% Mar-2004
5.11% Mar-2005
4.80% Mar-2006
4.27% Mar-2007
3.87% Mar-2008
5.70% Mar-2009


Between 1998 and 2007 the above figure averaged 6.10%

Between 1988 and 1997 the above figure averaged 9.02%

Based on historical figures, we are still in a low figure for Full Time unemployed.

Based on that, it is bound to get worse, just to return to average.
The historic trend is interesting, but it does need to be considered in context. e.g. trend towards two household earners, trend towards more flexible work arrangements etc.

I'm not going to pretend that I understand / appreciate the changes that have occurred in Australian employment over the years....... I guess all I'm saying is that it is hard to draw any conclusions from the numbers alone.
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Old Apr 9th 2009, 5:21 am
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Default Re: March Unemployment Numbers: Higher then forecast

Take your numbers back to 1989 for a view on what happens in a recession and not just a simple downturn. 1989 is mild compared to what is happening out there now.
Originally Posted by ABCDiamond
Looking at just the Full Time figures, for the last few years:

Unemployment Rate - looking for full-time work. Male & Female
Seasonally Adjusted figures

6.82% Mar-2000
6.58% Mar-2001
6.67% Mar-2002
6.51% Mar-2003
5.52% Mar-2004
5.11% Mar-2005
4.80% Mar-2006
4.27% Mar-2007
3.87% Mar-2008
5.70% Mar-2009


Between 1998 and 2007 the above figure averaged 6.10%

Between 1988 and 1997 the above figure averaged 9.02%

Based on historical figures, we are still in a low figure for Full Time unemployed.

Based on that, it is bound to get worse, just to return to average.
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Old Apr 9th 2009, 6:59 am
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Default Re: March Unemployment Numbers: Higher then forecast

It's the end of the world as we know it.
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Old Apr 9th 2009, 7:35 am
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Thumbs up Re: March Unemployment Numbers: Higher then forecast

Lower interest rates around the corner.

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