Evelin

any comments?

http://news.theage.com.au/business/j...1022-566s.html

October 22, 2008 - 3:43PM


Australia's jobless rate will more than double between now and 2010, when over one million people are expected to be out of work, as the global economic slowdown weighs on China, a leading international bank says.

JPMorgan Australia's chief economist Stephen Walters said a slowdown in China's economic growth will be detrimental to the creation of jobs in Australia in the next two years.

"We now expect the jobless rate to more than double to nine per cent in late 2010, from the current 4.3 per cent," Mr Walters said.

"Softer growth in one of Australia's leading export destinations means Australia's export volumes will be lower, as will be the terms of trade.

"That said, on our forecasts, there will be one million unemployed Australians by the second half of 2010."

September 1994 was the last time the nation's jobless rate started with a nine, when it registered 9.1 per cent.

Meanwhile, Australia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to fall to 1.4 per cent in 2009, based on reduced expectations for expansion in China, Mr Walters said.

An expected slowing in export volumes, lower business investment and reduced household spending, which constitutes 60 per cent of the economy, also prompted the growth outlook downgrade.

Growth forecasts for China have been scaled back from 9.5 per cent to 8.7 per cent in 2009, Mr Walters said.

The Chinese government said on Monday its economic growth was 9.9 per cent for the first three quarters of this year, down from 11.9 per cent last year.

It is the second time in two weeks that JPMorgan has downwardly revised its estimates for 2009 Australian economic growth.

It had previously forecast GDP growth to fall from 2.5 per cent to 1.8 per cent.

However, Mr Walters has also forecast GDP growth to rise to around 2.5 per cent in 2010, and for the jobless rate to start to fall in 2011.

xizzles

I'm sorry to sound like a skeptic, but aren't these the same "experts" that gave triple A ratings to dodgy dealers like AIG and Merryll Lynch and Lehman Brothers etc in the first place?

Sorry mate, I reckon stuff like that's lost all credibility. I rather not pay these fat-cat bankers a veritable fortune in bonuses and what have you, only for them to tell me things that I could jolly well 'predict' myself.

Well, of bloody course the jobless rate's going to go up!

There... I've had my 2 cents worth. End of rant

Wol

I reckon they are right - not because of who they are but common sense tells me that things ain't going to come back to the "norm". The world is a'changin'.

tictac

I agree. The world will *never* be the same again but *nobody* can predict what's going to happen.

No point worrying though. Just do the right thing and ride out the storm as best you can

Mr Grumpy

The unemployment is already that high in reality. I don't consider working 1 hour a week to be employment.

Petals

I agree that unemployment is very high as lots of people give up registering. The changes to employment and conversion to so much casual employment has meant that many people are slipping through the cracks, they do not get proper super paid even though they should, but who is going to vet that noises are made but nothing is done about it.

I am actually unemployed as I am not yet of retiring age and I have not registered as I would not be entitled to any dole money anyway. Many many people like me.

Most part time and casual people want more hours. As far as I am concerned if you are not getting enough work you are unemployed.

themerlin

I think all they do is take a graph of the last quarter, stick a ruler on it and predict the next 3 years that way.

ABCDiamond

The Guardian are quoting the same 9% rate

"With the UK heading into recession, we expect unemployment to rise by a total of 1.5 million to around 3 million, or 9%, by the end of 2010," said Vicky Redwood of Capital Economics.

It must be a worldwide figure that the media have all agreed on

king kong

Its going to go up thats for sure and here in perth ,centrelink is already handing out balaclavas and a free sawn off for your new jobsearch requirements .

daddyofthree

My uncle is oer here from Perth on hols and says that there is plenty of casual work over there. Those who are unemployed don't want to work!! Sorry, don't want to upset anyone just repeating what he said.

quoll

That is probably true - the key word there is casual. There are still sits vac notes on many of the shops in our local malls but they are very casual and will be the first to go when people stop spending - they are also designed to pick up the school kids who want part time. Also, flipping burgers at Maccas isnt probably going to appeal to a brickie who cant find a contract. And if all that fails, it is well known that they cant get fruit pickers - planning on importing a whole lot of slave labour from the Pacific Islands to do the jobs. So, yes, in essence you would have to work hard not to pick up something but whether it is a something that lasts or pays is another issue.

IvanM

Anyone who is wants to work and will accept what most of us would refuse can do so now. That may not be the case next year.

IvanM

The way things are at the moment we may as well throw a dice.

All I know is that the debt fuelled party of the last lot of years are is coming to an end. The size and length of the hangover is what the markets are desperately trying to figure out.

Lots of people compare the turmoil to to 1929 however a more accurate comparison is Japan late eighties. Banks lent to much to people to spend of real estate and stocks. All good whilst the asset prices boomed. A walk in some of the tent cities in the parks in Tokyo indicate the pain is still on going 18 years later.

ABCDiamond

Comments on the Debt figures like that really puzzle me when the Federal Government debt was apparently reduced to zero not long ago However, State and Territory Governments are trebling their debt from $35 billion in 2007-08 to around $112 billion in 2011-12. Similar to the last Federal Labor government who, "in the last six years of Labor's last stint in government, national debt rocketed from $17 billion to $96 billion."

It is the consumers, with their recent buying patterns, who have increased consumer foreign debt, along with internal debt.

So the original quote is "the debt fuelled party of the last lot of years are is coming to an end" yet, the facts are that it is the the State Governments who are NOW massively increasing their debt.
It hasn't come to an end, it appears that it is just beginning.

I agree about the dice throwing though

Mr Grumpy

The whole problem I have with this whole crisis is that I never had fun from the previous 'party' of financial gluttony.

I never got bonuses, home loan, credit cards, expensive electrical goods, overseas holidays ect.

But, on the plus side Im not in debt