papilon

Not long to go now and the media are starting to ramp up, its going to be a great summer, great chance for an Ashes win in Australia

http://www.theage.com.au/sport/crick...ts=11#comments

mulben

Used to enjoy Test matches but since the (politically correct ) sub - continent
bookie scandal I am quite under whelmed by it all - might come round by the time it starts thou...

papilon

a politically correct bookie scandal, that must be a first

Australia will still be favorites but i think it should be a very even contest.

Already have tickets for Melbourne but am thinking of heading to either Adelaide or Sydney as well.

Jon77

Always a very hard task for any touring side to win down in Australia, England haven't done it since 1986!

The problem is the wickets are usually fast and hard with little variation, Australia over the last 20 years have had the best pace bowlers and then Shane Warne who could get the ball to turn on a sheet of glass.

The most English wicket is probably the SCG where you can get the ball to swing a little and it takes a bit of spin on the last few days. England have had plenty of success at the SCG, but by the the Ashes are usually long gone. You can get the ball to move off the seam a little at the MCG as well but a VERY hard place to win a test.

Brisbane and Perth can be similar, usually good batting wickets where winning the toss if very important. England cannot afford to lose the first test in Brisbane if they are to be competitive.

Adelaide is probably the most unpredictable Ashes test venue for me this year and is the test that could be a very close one indeed.

As I see it

Brisbane - High scoring draw, no side making great in roads with the bowling

Adelaide - A very close England win

Perth - Easy Australia win

Melbourne - Australia win, but close.

Sydney - England win

Final result 2 - 2 and England retain the Ashes

papilon

I would take that, seems like a fair appraisal.

Broad Shoulders

Even though this is our best chance in over 20 years I am doubtful we can win the series. Remember that it has taken some pretty amazing teams to beat Aus on home soil for a series win. Sth Africa did...and only just and that team was brilliant. India couldn't do it a few years ago and they had a very very good side that caused Aus a lot of problems. Admittedly, Aus are a bit weaker than they were then but we are going to be at our very best and even then I think it will not happen.

I don't see us winning at the Gabba (even though I have a 5 day pass) as Aus' record there is about as good as you can get, plus England are notoriously slow starters against them (Cardiff, Lords and all other previous Gabba games of the last 20 years). I do see us winning in Adelaide as we normally do well there, plus Swann should come into his own. Perth is a possibility for us, but I see that going to Aus as their seamers should do well. I do see us winning one of either the SCG or MCG tests though and I'm backing the SCG test. In short, if we win Perth then I think that will be the deciding factor for us.

Vash the Stampede

England have only won the Ashes twice in the last 22 years () but there's a strong possibility that they'll win this one. Australia has been struggling recently, with most of the old guard long gone and the new boys still finding their feet.

papilon

but that twice is 2 out of the last last 3

Vash the Stampede

Yes, although Australia won more games in the second of those 3 than England did in their 2 combined.

papilon

Ouch

papilon

Just saw that Channel 9 will be showing all the cricket this summer on its new HD channel Gem, so hopefully no interruptions this time at crucial moments.

Amazulu

South Africa did it - easily - 2 years ago, but then they are a much better side than England.

Broad Shoulders

I wouldn't say they did it easily. Also, SA are not a smidgen of what they were 2 years ago, right now I would rate England better than SA. However, they are not as good now as SA were when they beat Aus

Alfresco

Too many SA players in the England team. Shouldn't be that way.

Amazulu

I reckon it was easy. The way they ran down that massive 2nd innings in Perth was incredible - I was there. It was a major turning point for Australia - it showed they were not invincible at home.

England are good at the moment and I reckon they have the edge on Australia - and as long as Ponting is captain will continue to do so. SA will hopefully go to No.1 if they win their upcoming series against Pakistan and India.