Vash the Stampede

Right on cue, here's another doom spruiker. Anyone for sour grapes? There's plenty to go around!

29th of September 2002: "Significant downturn within a year"

22nd of September 2003: "Housing market is at the top of its bubble"

8th of May 2004: "Housing bubble has burst"

9th of June 2004: "Australia's housing bubble could be the first to burst"

30th of June 2006: "The beginning of the end"

11th of October 2006: "Perth prices to drop 20%"

9th of July 2007: "Inability to purchase anything"

30th of June 2008: "20-25% price crash over next few years"

23rd of July 2008: "Heading for biggest slump over the past 100 years"

5th of March 2009: "House prices will crash 60%"

3rd of February 2010: "House prices increase 5.2% in 3 months"

8th of May 2010: "Rates might drop"

30th of July 2010: "Prices fall; rates go up"

2nd of November 2010: "Interest rates increase"

21st of July 2011: "The crash is picking up speed."

29th of July 2011: "Well Perth house prices seem to be falling quite nicely now I wonder how far down they will go and how the idiots will enjoy their negative equity."

Vash the Stampede

But that's still only a case of a broken clock being right twice a day. Predict an economic downturn for long enough, and you're sure to be right eventually. The key issue here is that people have made very specific predictions regarding timeframes, percentage of market loss, etc. and all of them have been consistently falsified.

We all agree Australian property is overvalued and due for a market correction. What we disagree on is when and how this will occur. Personally, I believe most people are in no position to know, which is why I remain skeptical whenever the real estate prophets start preaching on this forum. Their current record (9 straight years of failed predictions) does not inspire confidence.

hevs

And if it wernt for the nasty greedy landlords where would anyone who rented where they first came here been?

Property doesnt always go up, and people take great delight, rubbing their hands together when the nasty landlords property prices are falling and they are gleeful at the though of the stupid LL having to bail out. It isnt always a quick buck, far from it, anyone whos had tennants from hell will give you a serve for that one, anyone who has lost their job whist maintaing ther neg gearing will tell you that too, why is it that the LL is always the bad guy? They, just like anyone who invests in anything is taking a risk. Anyone who invests, in whatever area knows, its not a short term thing. Very often people dont make a profit, year to year on investment properties and it isnt till youve had the thing for many years that you begin to reap the rewards. It certainly isnt the cash cow people seem to think it is, especially the lower the earner as the tax relief isnt that special!

Negative gearing....it means that the nasty LL has to pay out of his pocket each month, to make up the mortgage, to fix thing, to pay water rates, insurance, agents fees etc. When the interest rates got up, this out of pocket gets worse, but again, why should we feel sorry cos hes just a greedy barsteward right?

Any thoughts as to why the gov helps out? Any thoughts on the limited supply of commision houses out there to those in GENUINE need? Also say... students/ young couples still in Uni, living away from home? AND then there are those who cant afford to get onto the housing ladder, I mean those that NEVER will, for whatever reason. Think about the millions it would cost the government in public housing AND the slums this in turn creates...a few grand given back at tax time from the coffers to me doesnt seem SO bad afterall...

(Food for thought given to me by a friend who owns 2 investment properties, well when I say owns.....)

In Exile

love that analogy!

moneypenny20

Still nothing in 2005. Must have been a happy year for everyone.

In Exile

You misunderstand, or maybe I wasnt explicit enough, in which case my bad. I'm atacking the policy of allowing excessive property ownership not the landlords at a personal level.
Make the system work for you by all means, I do for me, doesnt mean I agree with it. Also I'm not sure why you are trying to evoke some kind of faux inverse sympathy by calling them 'nasty greedy landlords'. thats a little bit childish.

I'm not saying we dont need landlords. Of course we do. I'm saying that there are currently no restrictions to how many properties they can own, and indeed there are enormous tax breaks to be had, including any maintenance or development work done I might add (which adds value to the house, remember). And people currently own a lot. Some of them are bought with no intention of renting out at all. Just left vacant.

All excessive invetsment property ownership does in the end is push up the house prices (due to high demand for purchasing, partially due to incentives to do so - negative gearing, stamp duty allowances etc) which subsequently pushes up the rent prices (as due to the property shortfall there's a now lack of available properties to buy, therefore more tennants).

Your argument in the last paragraph is a bit of a strawman too. It seems to be based on a situation where there there are no, or next to no houses available. Thats not what I am saying.

Genesis

Er, totally stupid. Anyone who would believe such a thing can only be stupid. There are no guarantees in the housing game. No one made them buy the house anyway I don't view a house as an investment, never have and never will. A house becomes my home....way more important than an investment. Made some money on them in the Uk but in NZ? Not made a penny in over 6 years. My choice. My decision. Tough luck. You win some you lose some.

Vash the Stampede

Poms won the Ashes that year. Took everyone's minds off the Australian property market.

isgraham

Hit a raw nerve did I? You're having to resort to name calling oh no how will I cope with being called a doom spruiker. Better than being a delusional optimist I reckon. At least I'm not going to be wiped out when house prices fall to more reasonable levels how about you?

Amazulu

I think he may have hit a raw nerve with you dude!

ozzieeagle

Vash is an Aus that lived in the UK for quite a while. AFAIK he sold his house in Walsall and paid the majority of the modest 350,000 dollars for a plain looking 60's house in a very affordable part of Adelaide in the last 24 months I think.... A place he can add value to, and in doing so in an open fashion on the expats boards, Let people know that doing things this way was a sensible path for prospective migrants to emulate. .

You can show people the way that Aussies do things... or you can follow the dream that Migrants understandably and possibly foolishly take. Lets put it this way, a house price crash wont bother him.

Wouldn't mind some updated photos Vash... before and after.... especially right now

I wonder how much most migrants are prepared to sacrifice as equity to live their idealistic dreams. A lot more than Vash and most other returning Aussies I bet.

papilon

I know 2 Australian couples who moved back from extended stays in England in the last couple of years and both couples have brought very nice $1.5 mill + inner city houses in Melbourne and drive Audi and BMW cars. A very large chunk of this is financed. Australians are notorious risk takers and often take a financial punt and why wouldn't they, it has served the last couple of generations pretty well

rockpeblar

Came across a house for sale in Golden Bay, WA that was advertised at $750k in May, now advertised at $595-635k. Big drop in only a couple of months!!

Vash the Stampede

No raw nerves here, I assure you. On the contrary, you gave me a right good laugh.

Fine and dandy thanks mate. We have two houses: one in the UK, and one in Australia. The UK house has ~50% equity and the Aussie house has ~58% equity. It's all good here.

Vash the Stampede

Pretty close, just a couple of corrections: we didn't sell the Walsall house (still renting it out) and the Aussie house wasn't $350k, it was at least $100k cheaper than that.

But we were able to put down a pretty big deposit and knocked a good chunk off the mortgage when I sold a third property I'd kept up my sleeve for a rainy day, so we're close to 60% equity now.

Straight up. Bring on the house crash, I couldn't give a monkey's. My place isn't overvalued.

Planning a new update thread very soon, so keep an eye out for it.

Let's just say nobody ever went broke by living within their means.