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Housing bubble in Australia

Housing bubble in Australia

Old Feb 8th 2010, 11:27 pm
  #151  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by ABCDiamond
You are right in that thinking, but thankfully they are only a minority.
eg: In January 2010 only 12.9% of all new mortgages were to First Home Buyers.
That in itself is not good news for the housing market though. The housing market needs more FTBs or it's a house of cards in a strong wind. Same thing happening in UK - everyone cock-a-hoop over the rise in house price rises, even though there's only about 500 houses changing hands and they're at the top end of the market.

Trouble still ahead of us on this one I'm afraid.
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Old Feb 8th 2010, 11:33 pm
  #152  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by ABCDiamond
Was someone challenging my views then ? I never noticed that, in this specific conversation. In fact I thought we had seemed to near enough agree with the state of housing prices in this discussion.

One of you said sideways, I said almost, one of you said how can it be almost, so I explained for you that going up a 'bit' was the difference to sideways.

What's the problem ?

Best not to presume to much. Presumptions can be wrong.
This thread is headed - Housing Bubble in Australia. I think there is, you don't. So, when you post statistics to show there isn't and I post to show there is, you could say that we are challenging each others views?

Who is one of us? How many of me are there? Why say something 'almost' happened. Far easier to say what actually happened don't you think?

I have viewed enough of your statistics and others to formulate my own view, just as you have. I may presume things because of this but as I have said before, these assumptions may well turn out to be wrong and I would be the first to admit this. Would you do the same?
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Old Feb 8th 2010, 11:42 pm
  #153  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by swigski
This thread is headed - Housing Bubble in Australia. I think there is, you don't. So, when you post statistics to show there isn't and I post to show there is, you could say that we are challenging each others views?

Who is one of us? How many of me are there? Why say something 'almost' happened. Far easier to say what actually happened don't you think?

I have viewed enough of your statistics and others to formulate my own view, just as you have. I may presume things because of this but as I have said before, these assumptions may well turn out to be wrong and I would be the first to admit this. Would you do the same?
I haven't been on this thread but from a neutral perspective I think it's undeniable that there is a housing bubble not just in Australia but right across the West.

A good three bedroom place in the south of England in the early 1970s cost £4000, which is about £45,000 today. A nice three bedroom house in Perth in the early 1980s cost $40,000. Today this would cost $128,000. It seems to me that you would need at least three times, mor realistically four times, these figures to by comparable homes today in 2010, and that's AFTER a crash in the UK.

C'est ca.
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Old Feb 8th 2010, 11:51 pm
  #154  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by asprilla
Do you have any proof that "property is way overpriced" ?

Or is this merely your opinion?

I can prove quite easily to you that "property is not overpriced".
OK, maybe I should have said severely unaffordable.

The severe unaffordability of Sydney and Melbourne is, in fact, a problem of national proportions.
In all of Australia's major markets, a median income household with a new loan on a median priced house would have housing expenses that are higher than the national standard for mortgage stress.

Of the 23 significant housing markets in Australia in the demographia study, 22 were ranked as Severely Unaffordable.

So it is not my opinion. It is fact!

Australand Property Group has posted a 31 per cent fall in calendar 2009 operating profit and says it expects to see a similar result this year.

‘‘While economic conditions are showing signs of stabilisation, the group remains cautious about the outlook for the next 12 months,’’ Australand said of the residential market.

‘‘The fundamentals for the sector remain strong with population growth driving demand, but this will be moderated in the short term by the expected pressure on affordability.’’

I would like to see how you can easily prove that property is not overpriced or unaffordable.

P.S. Did ABC tag you?

Last edited by swigski; Feb 9th 2010 at 12:01 am. Reason: l
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Old Feb 9th 2010, 12:28 am
  #155  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by hereandthere
That in itself is not good news for the housing market though. The housing market needs more FTBs or it's a house of cards in a strong wind. Same thing happening in UK - everyone cock-a-hoop over the rise in house price rises, even though there's only about 500 houses changing hands and they're at the top end of the market.

Trouble still ahead of us on this one I'm afraid.
+1, well put hereandthere.
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Old Feb 9th 2010, 12:40 am
  #156  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by swigski
OK, maybe I should have said severely unaffordable.

The severe unaffordability of Sydney and Melbourne is, in fact, a problem of national proportions.
In all of Australia's major markets, a median income household with a new loan on a median priced house would have housing expenses that are higher than the national standard for mortgage stress.

Of the 23 significant housing markets in Australia in the demographia study, 22 were ranked as Severely Unaffordable.

So it is not my opinion. It is fact!

I would like to see how you can easily prove that property is not overpriced or unaffordable.
Well, I guess I was playing on semantics a little. Your original comment was made in the context that all property is overpriced, which is clearly not true. If it was, then the number of transactions would be close to zero.

The demographia study is certainly interesting, but I would suggest that people are jumping to conclusions that they have made after a cursory skip through a feature in the courier mail, without reading the details and thinking it through first. Something that we have already seen in this thread, I might add.
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Old Feb 9th 2010, 12:49 am
  #157  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by asprilla
Well, I guess I was playing on semantics a little. Your original comment was made in the context that all property is overpriced, which is clearly not true. If it was, then the number of transactions would be close to zero.

The demographia study is certainly interesting, but I would suggest that people are jumping to conclusions that they have made after a cursory skip through a feature in the courier mail, without reading the details and thinking it through first. Something that we have already seen in this thread, I might add.
I think just about all property in the West and other places like certain parts of China is certainly overpriced. Certain parts of US/Canada are roughly in line iwth long-term trends. Property in Australia becomes affordable only in two scenarios: a poor neighbourhood where what you save on the property price you'll have to spend on karate lessons, or an absolute dump with no roof that requires extensive investment.

It's not a mystery. Just roll onto realestate.com.au with $128,000 and see how many three bedroom houses in good areas of Perth you can find. This is what they cost in 1980 when property was affordable.

See what places you come up with - if you provide the links I'll check out the properties.
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Old Feb 9th 2010, 12:58 am
  #158  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Is there a housing bubble in Australia?

Absolutely.

Will it pop? Of course ALL bubbles eventually burst.

When will it happen? No one knows but I certainly wouldn't want to be a "greater fool" at the moment. Just glad I don't have to be.

I think we are about to hit the next leg down, another triple digit loss on the Dow last night.

GFC part 2 about to kick off.
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Old Feb 9th 2010, 1:07 am
  #159  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by renth
Is there a housing bubble in Australia?

Absolutely.

Will it pop? Of course ALL bubbles eventually burst.

When will it happen? No one knows but I certainly wouldn't want to be a "greater fool" at the moment. Just glad I don't have to be.

I think we are about to hit the next leg down, another triple digit loss on the Dow last night.

GFC part 2 about to kick off.
Yup - Dow down for last four weeks now, so not looking good for equities.
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Old Feb 9th 2010, 1:10 am
  #160  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by hereandthere
It's not a mystery. Just roll onto realestate.com.au with $128,000 and see how many three bedroom houses in good areas of Perth you can find. This is what they cost in 1980 when property was affordable.
er... I think your argument has taken a slight wrong turn here...
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Old Feb 9th 2010, 1:30 am
  #161  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by asprilla
er... I think your argument has taken a slight wrong turn here...
Hardly. You claim that not all property is overpriced, I suggest it probably is. To back this up I point out that property is now somewhere intheregion of 300% to 400% more expensive than it used to be, making it grossly unaffordable even at the lowest end of the market.

If you think property is affordable, as it was a generation ago, then I ask you to provide evidence of this by finding a nice three bedroom house in a good part of Perth for $128,000. That's about the size of my argument. I presume you couldn't find anything at that price range?
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Old Feb 9th 2010, 1:31 am
  #162  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

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Old Feb 9th 2010, 1:36 am
  #163  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by coolshadows
Particularly bad news for Adelaide where the wages are lower. The crash in house prices in Adelaide is going to be a bloodbath. Govt. will work hard to stop this happening in an election year though,even if it means totally crucifying the younger generation of home buyers.
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Old Feb 9th 2010, 1:38 am
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Latest statistics...



http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf
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Old Feb 9th 2010, 1:41 am
  #165  
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Default Re: Housing bubble in Australia

Originally Posted by hereandthere
The crash in house prices in Adelaide is going to be a bloodbath. Govt. will work hard to stop this happening in an election year though,even if it means totally crucifying the younger generation of home buyers.
A house price crash in Australia will take down all the big Aussie banks as they pretty much exist only to perpetuate the house price bubble. They are all incredibly exposed to residential real estate.

It will be a bloodbath.
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